Kenya Autos Report Q2 2014

Date: February 26, 2014
Pages: 55
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI is forecasting GDP growth of 6.1% in 2014. This uptick in economic expansion is expected to continue over our forecast period to 2018 when we forecast Kenya's GDP will reach US$80bn by 2018. Further supporting the domestic vehicle market is rising private consumption, positive investor sentiment and booming economic expansion in Tanzania and Uganda. In light of this we forecast total new and used vehicle sales to come in at 136,583 in 2018. As the Japanese yen remains weak we do not expect new vehicle sales to make up an increasing proportion of total sales. According to the Kenyan Motor Industry Association, in the eight months to August 2013 new vehicle dealers sold 9,135 units compared to 8,117 units a year earlier.

BMI expects that as the passenger car market continues to face pressures from used vehicle imports industry players will look to the commercial vehicle segment to expand their market share. In line with our view, Toyota Motor has entered the tractor market after entering the bus and truck market after facing declining market share in H1 2013. Following Dubai-based conglomerate Al Futtaim group offering of US $86mn to acquire Kenyan car retailer CMC Holdings we have seen further progress with the deal with the offer to existing shareholders of CMC now open. BMI expects that there is potential for more such deals.
BMI Industry View
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
  Table: Vehicle Registrations 2011-2018.
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Outlook
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Africa - Risk Reward/Ratings
  Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa.
Competitive Landscape
Company Profile
Company Monitor
  Table: Top 20 SSA Consumer Markets, 2013.
Regional Overview
Autos - Africa: Fruits of Investment A Key Theme For 2014
Competition Heats Up In Kenya
Hubs Developing?
  Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Investment Projects
Divergent Fortunes Of Nigeria And South Africa
Global Industry Overview
  Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
Europe On Road To Recovery
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020.
  Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020.
Industry Forecasts
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
  Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
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