Iran Freight Transport Report Q4 2012

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI is forecasting a recession in Iran in 2012 and 2013 as the Middle Eastern country struggles to maintain itself economically in the face of sanctions against its crude oil exports, the primary source of revenue in the country. Despite this, BMI's freight transport team projects growth at the country's primary container port Bandar Abbas, albeit at less than 1%. The other freight modes of air and rail are to experience similarly sedate growth this year, though road freight appears to be performing well, and BMI has significantly upgraded our outlook for road haulage in 2012. This is evidence of the key role Iran can play as a transit state.

Headline Industry Data

• 2012 port of Bandar Abbas throughput growth forecast is 0.4% and is forecast to average 3.0% a year to 2016.
• 2012 road freight volumes forecast to grow by 12.6% and are projected to average 6.9% over the forecast period.
• 2012 rail freight tonnes-km growth forecast is 1.7% and is projected to average 2.1% over the forecast period.
• 2012 air freight tonnes-km is forecast to contract by 3.1% and to average growth of 0.6% a year to 2016.
• 2012 total trade is forecast to experience a real contraction of 12.0% in 2012, followed by a contraction of 7.0% in 2013, before returning to growth (2.5%) in 2014.

Key Industry Trends

Goods Transited Reach 3.98mn Tonnes In First Four Months

The volume of goods transported through the Iranian transit routes grew by 28% year-on-year to around 3.98mn in the first four months of the year, started on March 20 2012, the Tehran Times quoted the Iranian government as saying. Of the total goods transported, 91% of the goods were transported through the road network, while the remaining was transported via the rail network, according to the deputy roads and urban development minister, Shahryar Afandizadeh.

Sanctions Continue To Affect Crude Shipping

BMI believes that the political impasse between Iran and the West over the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme, which the US and its allies maintain is geared toward the development of atomic bombs, will continue to affect the global crude oil shipping sector over the coming quarter. Indeed, the effects of the latest round of sanctions against the Middle Eastern state will likely rumble on well into 2013.

Foreign Companies Interested In Iranian Airport Terminals

Several foreign companies have expressed an interest in investing US$2.5bn in the construction of two new terminals at Imam Khomeini International Airport, it was reported in July. Two consortiums are among the interested parties, including companies from China, Germany, Malaysia and Turkey.

Key Risks To Outlook

There are numerous risks to our outlook and forecasts for Iran, largely stemming from the country's alleged nuclear weapons development programme, and the effect the Western sanctions targeting this have on the country's trade and economy. Should these be strengthened still further, or should Iran return to negotiations in a significant manner, and sanctions are slackened, then upside or downside risk elements could come into play.