Iran Freight Transport Report Q4 2013

Date: September 18, 2013
Pages: 84
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: I4691A077D4EN

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Our outlook for the Iranian freight transport sector is gloomy for 2013, on the back of the continued issues presented by Western sanctions, imposed in a bid to halt the Islamic Republic's controversial nuclear development programme. We forecast that air freight volumes and container volumes at the premier port, Bandar Abbas, will fall just as the country's real GDP will endure a second consecutive year of contraction.

We envisage road and rail freight volumes remaining positive, however, aided by Iran's transit role between East and West.

Headline Industry Data
  • 2013 port of Bandar Abbas throughput is forecast to contract by 25.0%, but will return to growth of 3.1% in 2014.
  • 2013 road freight volumes forecast to grow by 1.7% and are projected to average 5.6% over the forecast period to 2017.
  • 2013 rail freight tonnes-km is forecast to grow by 0.6%, and is projected to average 2.1% growth per annum over the forecast period to 2017.
  • 2013 air freight tonnes-km is forecast to contract by 1.8% and to average growth of 0.5% a year to 2017.
  • 2013 total trade is forecast to experience a real contraction of 20.5% in 2013, followed by a return to growth of 9.5% in 2014, and averaging 1.1% to 2017.
BMI Industry View
Freight Transport
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Rail Freight
  Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
Road Freight
  Table: Road Freight, 2010-2017
Air Freight
  Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
  Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
  Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
  Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
  Table: Iran's Main Import Partners (US$mn)
  Table: Iran's Main Export Partners (US$mn)
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Rail Freight
Maritime Freight
Company Profile
Iran Air Cargo
Islamic Republic Of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL)
Political Outlook
Foreign Policy
Long-Term Political Outlook
Challenges And Threats To Stability
  Table: Iran Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Crude Price Forecasts
  Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Product Prices Move Back Up But No Spikes Expected
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
Weak Demand Persists
  Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
Naphtha: Gas Renaissance Hits Demand
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement
Jet Fuel: Slump Restricts Upward Movement
  Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
Bunker Fuels: No Rest To Downward Movement In Sight
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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