Croatia Freight Transport Report 2012
Following a year in which BMI believes there were increasing volumes, 2012 will signal further growth in all freight modes, albeit only marginal in most of them.
Total trade is projected to contract, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y decline of 2.42% in 2012, following an estimated decline of 4.52% in 2011.
Road freight is set to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by less than 1% in 2012.
The sector did not manage to defy the downturn, with volumes plummeting in 2009 and 2010, and is struggling to stage a recovery.
Headline Industry Data
Investment Drive At Ploce
Funding is flooding into Croatian ports in order for the facilities to realise their potential as maritime gateways to Central and Eastern Europe. Developments at the Port of Ploce, in southern Croatia, will not only offer more capacity for Croatia's trade needs, but also those of Bosnia & Herzegovina and Hungary, which are connected to the port by Pan-European Transport Corridor Vc.
Parliamentary Support For Completion Of Corridor Vc
The Croatian parliament supported the ratification of a collateral agreement between Croatia and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for a project aimed at the completion of pan-European transport corridor Vc, specifically the building of roads along Croatia's northern and southern border with Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Bosnian Smelter Back In Control Of Port Of Ploce Silo
Bosnian aluminium smelter Aluminij (Aluminij dd Mostar) has reached an agreement with the Port of Ploce's priority concessionaire, resulting in Aluminij regaining control of its alumina silo at the port after 15 years of not being able to use what Aluminij always claimed to be its property. Aluminij plans to prepare the silo for the storage if its alumina is imported through Glencore International AG from Greece and hopes to save money due to better planning of transhipment to Mostar and the lower costs of port services.
Rijeka Gets Better Connected, Box Throughput To Rise
International Container Terminal Services (ICTSI), the operator of the Adriatic Gate Container Terminal (AGCT) at the Port of Rijeka, is to increase intermodal capacity at the port after an agreement was signed with Croatian Railways. BMI notes that the plan to better connect AGCT with the hinterland stems from ICTSI's strategy to develop the terminal into a maritime gateway for goods into Central and southeastern Europe. Improved freight connections offer upside risk to our throughput forecasts at the port.
Ploce's New Container Terminal Gets First Containers
In February 2011 the first container vessel was handled at the new box terminal at the Port of Ploce. The dedicated feeder ship, with the capacity of 920 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), is chartered by MSC to be used solely to connect Ploce and Montenegro's Port of Bar with the hub port of Gioia Tauro in Italy. The terminal at Ploce, the country's second largest port by container and total throughput, was opened in August 2010. It is part of a wider Trade and Transport Integration Project (TTI), a joint undertaking of the Croatian Ministry of Sea, Tourism, Transport and Development and the Port of Ploce Authority, with support from the World Bank and the EBRD.
Adriatic LNG Terminal Behind Schedule
A preliminary schedule will result in the Adriatic liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on the island of Krk becoming operational in 2017, years behind the original schedule. Proliferation of inter-regional gas pipeline projects in the Balkans is making the terminal's future increasingly uncertain. After months of stagnation, the Adria LNG consortium formally applied for a location permit to the environment ministry in May 2010. No supply deals have been signed and the only mooted source of gas, Iran, has yet to build any liquefaction terminals. More importantly, Croatia's decision in early 2010 to join the Russian-backed South Stream pipeline project has eroded the economic justification for a domestic LNG terminal. The consortium officially hopes to bring the planned 10-15bn cubic metres (bcm) facility onstream by 2014.
Risks To Outlook
BMI highlights freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the forecast areas which have moderate risk to the upside as it is these modes of transport which will benefit from the increase of container volumes driven by the country's household consumption, which we expect to remain supportive of economic growth in 2012. The country's real GDP is forecast to increase by 0.9% in 2012.
A downside risk to our forecasts comes due to Croatia's high reliance on export demand and external financing. Our Country Risk team continues to highlight the downside risks that the eurozone debt crisis poses to Croatia's economic outlook. If eurozone policymakers fail to stem the escalating debt crisis, Croatia would face severe macroeconomic turbulence, which might affect throughput at the country's ports.
Total trade is projected to contract, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y decline of 2.42% in 2012, following an estimated decline of 4.52% in 2011.
Road freight is set to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by less than 1% in 2012.
The sector did not manage to defy the downturn, with volumes plummeting in 2009 and 2010, and is struggling to stage a recovery.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 0.03%;
- 2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 0.07%;
- 2012 Port of Rijeka throughput is forecast to grow by 1.3%;
- 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 0.1%;
- 2012 inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 0.01%;
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at -2.4%.
Investment Drive At Ploce
Funding is flooding into Croatian ports in order for the facilities to realise their potential as maritime gateways to Central and Eastern Europe. Developments at the Port of Ploce, in southern Croatia, will not only offer more capacity for Croatia's trade needs, but also those of Bosnia & Herzegovina and Hungary, which are connected to the port by Pan-European Transport Corridor Vc.
Parliamentary Support For Completion Of Corridor Vc
The Croatian parliament supported the ratification of a collateral agreement between Croatia and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for a project aimed at the completion of pan-European transport corridor Vc, specifically the building of roads along Croatia's northern and southern border with Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Bosnian Smelter Back In Control Of Port Of Ploce Silo
Bosnian aluminium smelter Aluminij (Aluminij dd Mostar) has reached an agreement with the Port of Ploce's priority concessionaire, resulting in Aluminij regaining control of its alumina silo at the port after 15 years of not being able to use what Aluminij always claimed to be its property. Aluminij plans to prepare the silo for the storage if its alumina is imported through Glencore International AG from Greece and hopes to save money due to better planning of transhipment to Mostar and the lower costs of port services.
Rijeka Gets Better Connected, Box Throughput To Rise
International Container Terminal Services (ICTSI), the operator of the Adriatic Gate Container Terminal (AGCT) at the Port of Rijeka, is to increase intermodal capacity at the port after an agreement was signed with Croatian Railways. BMI notes that the plan to better connect AGCT with the hinterland stems from ICTSI's strategy to develop the terminal into a maritime gateway for goods into Central and southeastern Europe. Improved freight connections offer upside risk to our throughput forecasts at the port.
Ploce's New Container Terminal Gets First Containers
In February 2011 the first container vessel was handled at the new box terminal at the Port of Ploce. The dedicated feeder ship, with the capacity of 920 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), is chartered by MSC to be used solely to connect Ploce and Montenegro's Port of Bar with the hub port of Gioia Tauro in Italy. The terminal at Ploce, the country's second largest port by container and total throughput, was opened in August 2010. It is part of a wider Trade and Transport Integration Project (TTI), a joint undertaking of the Croatian Ministry of Sea, Tourism, Transport and Development and the Port of Ploce Authority, with support from the World Bank and the EBRD.
Adriatic LNG Terminal Behind Schedule
A preliminary schedule will result in the Adriatic liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on the island of Krk becoming operational in 2017, years behind the original schedule. Proliferation of inter-regional gas pipeline projects in the Balkans is making the terminal's future increasingly uncertain. After months of stagnation, the Adria LNG consortium formally applied for a location permit to the environment ministry in May 2010. No supply deals have been signed and the only mooted source of gas, Iran, has yet to build any liquefaction terminals. More importantly, Croatia's decision in early 2010 to join the Russian-backed South Stream pipeline project has eroded the economic justification for a domestic LNG terminal. The consortium officially hopes to bring the planned 10-15bn cubic metres (bcm) facility onstream by 2014.
Risks To Outlook
BMI highlights freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the forecast areas which have moderate risk to the upside as it is these modes of transport which will benefit from the increase of container volumes driven by the country's household consumption, which we expect to remain supportive of economic growth in 2012. The country's real GDP is forecast to increase by 0.9% in 2012.
A downside risk to our forecasts comes due to Croatia's high reliance on export demand and external financing. Our Country Risk team continues to highlight the downside risks that the eurozone debt crisis poses to Croatia's economic outlook. If eurozone policymakers fail to stem the escalating debt crisis, Croatia would face severe macroeconomic turbulence, which might affect throughput at the country's ports.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Croatia Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Croatia Political SWOT
Croatia Economic SWOT
Croatia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
Rail
Road
Maritime
Market Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016
Maritime Freight
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2016 ('000 Tonnes)
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016
Inland Waterways Freight
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Croatia's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Croatia's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Croatia’s GDP By Expenditure Breakdown, 2008-2016
Company Profiles
Croatia Airlines (Cargo)
DB Schenker Croatia
HZ Cargo
Country Snapshot: Croatia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2003
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2010
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
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