Colombia Freight Transport Report 2014

Date: January 15, 2014
Pages: 79
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: C24D60026ADEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

We forecast Colombian real GDP to expand by 4.1% in 2013 and 4.3% in 2014, up from 4.0% in 2012. However, ongoing labour disruptions to exports pose downside risks to our medium-term growth outlook, which also feeds into our forecasts for the country's freight industry. That said, we maintain a favourable long-term growth outlook, as investment into the infrastructure and oil and gas sectors, combined with a strengthening consumer, will drive robust real GDP growth in the coming years.

We forecast real government consumption growth to moderate from 5.1% in 2012 to 4.0% in 2013 and 3.0% in 2014, as the government remains committed to its fiscal consolidation drive. However, we are seeing increasing scope for the government to increase spending across several sectors that have had a relatively weak performance in recent months. Indeed, the agriculture sector was hard hit by a strong currency early in the year, which saw exports contract, and drove substantial protests among farmers.
BMI Industry View
Freight Transport
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
  Table: 1: Air Freight, 2011-2018
  Table: 2: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
  Table:: Road Freight, 2011-2018
  Table: 4: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
  Table:: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
  Table: 7: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
  Table: 8: Main Import Partners, 2004-2011
  Table: 5: Main Export Partners, 2004-2011
Market Overview
  Table: Top Five Colombian Infra Projects By Value
Industry Trends And Developments
Company Profile
Cerrejon (Logistics)
Avianca (Cargo)
Political Outlook
Political Risk Analysis
  Table: Presidential Pre-Candidates For Centro Democratico.
Long-Term Political Outlook
  Table: Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Crude Price Forecasts
  Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$
Variance Across Product Markets
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
Weak Demand Persists
Risks To Outlook
  Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand
Gasoline And Gasoil
Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement
  Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
  Table: Colombia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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