Colombia Freight Transport Report 2012
With GDP set to grow by 4.5% in 2012, according to our forecasts, BMI's outlook for Colombia's freight transport sector is broadly positive, although we caution that much more investment in infrastructure is needed to enable the country to handle its increasing mining output. We expect growth in both imports and exports. Oil exports should continue to provide the bulk of export revenues as Colombia ramps up production. With production increasing from 742,000 barrels per day (bbl) in January 2010 to 927,000 bbl/day in May 2011, Colombia's target of 1mn bbl/day by the end of 2011 should be comfortably achieved.
Coal exports have remained steady, although we outline some risks to this. Our mining industry analysts expect the US, which currently sources 75% of its coal exports from Colombia, to become a significant coal exporter by 2015, suggesting that Colombia will have to find new markets for its coal exports if it is to avoid losing out.
Our view of consumer-led growth in Colombia means that rising imports will continue to weigh on the goods trade surplus. Domestic demand is stronger than ever in Colombia, with vehicle sales soaring, posting a 52% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise for the first four months of 2011 as the country's burgeoning middle class and private sector credit growth continue to stimulate household consumption, boosting imports of containerised goods.
Key Trends and Developments
Badly Needed Investment Coming Barranquilla's Way
BMI sees upside risk to our forecasts for the Colombian port of Barranquilla, which is in line for significant investment in 2012. This is good news for the port, which serves Colombia's main industrial zone but is badly in need of modernisation.
Vertical Integration Trend Continues As Cerrejon Unveils US$1.3bn Investment Plan The three companies behind Cerrejon (Anglo American, Xstrata and BHP Billiton), Colombia's biggest coal mining project, have approved a US$1.3bn expansion plan for the mine, including significant upgrades to its freight transport infrastructure. The announcement reflects BMI's long-held view that mining companies in emerging markets will invest increasingly in vertical integration of their supply chains as local funding of infrastructure proves inadequate.
South Korea Warms To Colombia As It Seeks Access To 'Second Cerrejon' Colombia is continuing to attract Asian investment in its port and freight infrastructure as rapidly growing economies seek to secure access to the Andean nation's vast reserves of coal by developing its transport links. We have already seen China express its interest in developing Colombia's coal hauling rail network. Now South Korea looks set to make its first major investment in the country as it seeks to ensure access to a coal mine that is being billed as a 'second Cerrejon'.
Risks To Outlook
Colombia suffers from an infrastructure deficit because its economic development has far outpaced investment in its infrastructure. This needs to be rectified if the country is to handle its increasing mining output.
A second downside risk comes from the possibility of a hard landing in China. This would result in reduced demand from the Asian country for the raw materials and minerals which Colombia exports.
Coal exports have remained steady, although we outline some risks to this. Our mining industry analysts expect the US, which currently sources 75% of its coal exports from Colombia, to become a significant coal exporter by 2015, suggesting that Colombia will have to find new markets for its coal exports if it is to avoid losing out.
Our view of consumer-led growth in Colombia means that rising imports will continue to weigh on the goods trade surplus. Domestic demand is stronger than ever in Colombia, with vehicle sales soaring, posting a 52% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise for the first four months of 2011 as the country's burgeoning middle class and private sector credit growth continue to stimulate household consumption, boosting imports of containerised goods.
Key Trends and Developments
Badly Needed Investment Coming Barranquilla's Way
BMI sees upside risk to our forecasts for the Colombian port of Barranquilla, which is in line for significant investment in 2012. This is good news for the port, which serves Colombia's main industrial zone but is badly in need of modernisation.
Vertical Integration Trend Continues As Cerrejon Unveils US$1.3bn Investment Plan The three companies behind Cerrejon (Anglo American, Xstrata and BHP Billiton), Colombia's biggest coal mining project, have approved a US$1.3bn expansion plan for the mine, including significant upgrades to its freight transport infrastructure. The announcement reflects BMI's long-held view that mining companies in emerging markets will invest increasingly in vertical integration of their supply chains as local funding of infrastructure proves inadequate.
South Korea Warms To Colombia As It Seeks Access To 'Second Cerrejon' Colombia is continuing to attract Asian investment in its port and freight infrastructure as rapidly growing economies seek to secure access to the Andean nation's vast reserves of coal by developing its transport links. We have already seen China express its interest in developing Colombia's coal hauling rail network. Now South Korea looks set to make its first major investment in the country as it seeks to ensure access to a coal mine that is being billed as a 'second Cerrejon'.
Risks To Outlook
Colombia suffers from an infrastructure deficit because its economic development has far outpaced investment in its infrastructure. This needs to be rectified if the country is to handle its increasing mining output.
A second downside risk comes from the possibility of a hard landing in China. This would result in reduced demand from the Asian country for the raw materials and minerals which Colombia exports.
Contents
Executive SummaryKey Trends and Developments
Risks To Outlook
SWOT Analysis
Colombia Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Colombia Political SWOT
Colombia Economic SWOT
Colombia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends and Developments
Air
Maritime
Rail
Market Overview
Top Five Colombian Infra Projects By Value
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016
Maritime Freight
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2007-2016 ('000 tonnes)
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016
Road Freight
TABLE: ROAD FREIGHT, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Colombia's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$MN)
Table: Colombia's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$MN)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Colombia - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Avianca (Cargo)
Cerrejon (Logistics)
Country Snapshot: Colombia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
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