The outlook for growth in Canada's freight transport sector is sluggish, with the country's economic expansion forecast to weaken in 2013. We remain concerned about both import and export levels. The country's freight network is well connected with the US - its largest trading partner - and it is here that BMI highlights the greatest opportunities for growth and development.
We have downgraded our Canadian GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.1% from 2.3%. While most of our individual forecasts of GDP by expenditure category remain the same, we have downgraded our real export growth projection to 5.0% from 5.7%, due to the fact that the strong Canadian dollar is hurting the export sector, while the external climate (with weakness in the crucial US export market) is beginning to hurt foreign trade. This accounts almost entirely for the decline in our overall GDP projection.
We have downgraded our Canadian GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.1% from 2.3%. While most of our individual forecasts of GDP by expenditure category remain the same, we have downgraded our real export growth projection to 5.0% from 5.7%, due to the fact that the strong Canadian dollar is hurting the export sector, while the external climate (with weakness in the crucial US export market) is beginning to hurt foreign trade. This accounts almost entirely for the decline in our overall GDP projection.
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Industry Forecast
Road Freight
Table: Canada Road Freight - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Inland Waterways
Table: Inland Waterway Freight- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Maritime
Table: Maritime Freight- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Trade
Table: Trade Overview- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2011, US$mn
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2011, US$mn
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Rail Freight
Air Freight
Maritime Freight
Company Profile
Air Canada Cargo
Canadian National Railway
Canadian Pacific Railway
Teekay
Regional Overview
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Table: System of Government
Long-Term Political Outlook
Global Industry Overview
Global Oil Product Price Outlook
Methodology
Crude Price Forecasts
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Early Rally Turns Into Run-Off
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
Supply: Refining Capacity Expansion Sets Tone
Naphtha: Global Economic Outlook Weighs On Prices
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: The Green Effect
Jet Fuel: Freight Continues Slump
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
Bunker Fuels: Efficiency Takes Hit On Demand
Macroeconomic Forecasts
GDP By Expenditure
Table: Canada - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Table: Canada - Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Demographic Forecast
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
Transport Industry
Sources
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Industry Forecast
Road Freight
Table: Canada Road Freight - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Inland Waterways
Table: Inland Waterway Freight- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Maritime
Table: Maritime Freight- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Trade
Table: Trade Overview- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2011, US$mn
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2011, US$mn
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Rail Freight
Air Freight
Maritime Freight
Company Profile
Air Canada Cargo
Canadian National Railway
Canadian Pacific Railway
Teekay
Regional Overview
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Table: System of Government
Long-Term Political Outlook
Global Industry Overview
Global Oil Product Price Outlook
Methodology
Crude Price Forecasts
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Early Rally Turns Into Run-Off
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl
Supply: Refining Capacity Expansion Sets Tone
Naphtha: Global Economic Outlook Weighs On Prices
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: The Green Effect
Jet Fuel: Freight Continues Slump
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
Bunker Fuels: Efficiency Takes Hit On Demand
Macroeconomic Forecasts
GDP By Expenditure
Table: Canada - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Table: Canada - Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Demographic Forecast
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
Transport Industry
Sources
