The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trends, Momentum and Migration
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On the heels of more than two years of recession, the restaurant industry continues to feel the results of discretionary spending pullbacks, and while it has worked margin miracles, must nevertheless work its way out of a triple threat: declining guest traffic, declining average check, and declines sales. Going forward, restaurant operators across all segments will need a walk the fine line by balancing incentives and discounts with added value and brand enhancement, working toward weaning consumers from the downward spiral of price shopping.
The The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trend Momentum and Migration provides unique insights into consumers’ evolving relationship with restaurants, helping restaurant operators position their brands—and menus—accordingly. Highlights of the study include 1) directional consumer behavioral and attitude analysis via Packaged Facts’ proprietary Consumer Restaurant Outlook Tracker, which identifies the consumers who will lead near-term restaurant growth; 2) Via its Consumer Restaurant Usage and Spend Tracker, unique analysis of meal usage by restaurant type, party size, and party spend, to help target consumers who can bring in higher guest check averages; 3) Share of Stomach sales analysis that trends restaurant sales by segment against its retail counterpart, and provides quarterly same-store comparable trends and guest traffic frequency trends for more than 50 restaurant brands by segment—all of which provide a thorough sense of where the industry is heading; and 4) current and future menu pricing strategies and detailed consumer brand affiliations, to provide competitive insight.
Woven throughout the report, readers will also find granular consumer insight provided via “consumer drilldowns” that shed insight on a host of pertinent guest traffic and incenting themes. Themes addressed include the degree to which healthy and new menu items influence choosing a restaurant versus choosing a menu item; the benefits of positioning gift cards & loyalty programs to healthy eaters and online order placers; targeting party spend by budget and health attitudes; and psychographic analyses of male and female Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters.
While the report forecasts industry sales in detail through 2012, simply put, the restaurant industry will face sales challenges through the reporting period. In an environment where growth—even stasis—means taking share, knowing where menu pricing trends, sales trends, menu selection trends, and convenience trends are going is paramount. This report provides needed consultation on these themes, helping industry participants what position restaurant menus and services for tomorrow’s consumer.
Data Methodology
Our methodology rests on a balance of data-centric expertise and holistic understanding, maximizing accuracy and depth of analysis. Report data is derived from thorough analysis of a host of sources, including the following:
In addition to supporting analysis (such as an introduction, an executive summary, and terms & definitions), this report covers the following major topics. Please note that the final published version of this report may contain addition information. Charts/graphs, as well as major header topics, are included.
On the heels of more than two years of recession, the restaurant industry continues to feel the results of discretionary spending pullbacks, and while it has worked margin miracles, must nevertheless work its way out of a triple threat: declining guest traffic, declining average check, and declines sales. Going forward, restaurant operators across all segments will need a walk the fine line by balancing incentives and discounts with added value and brand enhancement, working toward weaning consumers from the downward spiral of price shopping.
The The U.S. Foodservice Landscape 2010: Restaurant Industry and Consumer Trend Momentum and Migration provides unique insights into consumers’ evolving relationship with restaurants, helping restaurant operators position their brands—and menus—accordingly. Highlights of the study include 1) directional consumer behavioral and attitude analysis via Packaged Facts’ proprietary Consumer Restaurant Outlook Tracker, which identifies the consumers who will lead near-term restaurant growth; 2) Via its Consumer Restaurant Usage and Spend Tracker, unique analysis of meal usage by restaurant type, party size, and party spend, to help target consumers who can bring in higher guest check averages; 3) Share of Stomach sales analysis that trends restaurant sales by segment against its retail counterpart, and provides quarterly same-store comparable trends and guest traffic frequency trends for more than 50 restaurant brands by segment—all of which provide a thorough sense of where the industry is heading; and 4) current and future menu pricing strategies and detailed consumer brand affiliations, to provide competitive insight.
Woven throughout the report, readers will also find granular consumer insight provided via “consumer drilldowns” that shed insight on a host of pertinent guest traffic and incenting themes. Themes addressed include the degree to which healthy and new menu items influence choosing a restaurant versus choosing a menu item; the benefits of positioning gift cards & loyalty programs to healthy eaters and online order placers; targeting party spend by budget and health attitudes; and psychographic analyses of male and female Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters.
While the report forecasts industry sales in detail through 2012, simply put, the restaurant industry will face sales challenges through the reporting period. In an environment where growth—even stasis—means taking share, knowing where menu pricing trends, sales trends, menu selection trends, and convenience trends are going is paramount. This report provides needed consultation on these themes, helping industry participants what position restaurant menus and services for tomorrow’s consumer.
Data Methodology
Our methodology rests on a balance of data-centric expertise and holistic understanding, maximizing accuracy and depth of analysis. Report data is derived from thorough analysis of a host of sources, including the following:
- Proprietary company interviews
- Proprietary consumer surveys
- The Experian Simmons National Consumer Study
- The U.S. Census Bureau
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture
- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics Retail Trade Survey
- Company presentations
- Trade associations and trade magazines
- Academic journals
- Industry conferences
- Restaurant menus
In addition to supporting analysis (such as an introduction, an executive summary, and terms & definitions), this report covers the following major topics. Please note that the final published version of this report may contain addition information. Charts/graphs, as well as major header topics, are included.
- CHAPTER 1: RESTAURANT MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
- Introduction
- Insight Capsule
- Fast Facts
- Consumers’ heavy burden will not lift soon
- Consumer Confidence
- Unemployment
- Personal Savings Rate
- Figure: Unemployment, Savings Rate and Consumer Confidence: 2007-2010
- Current Situation vs. Expectations
- Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Home Meal Use Continues to Gain Ground
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior: A Topline View
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Next 3 Months: A Topline View
- Unemployment trends adversely affect everyday consumer; QSR and family segments to suffer
- Figure: Unemployment Rate, by Education Level, 2007-2010
- Figure: Unemployment Rate, by Age, 2007-2010
- Regional Weakness
- Unemployment Forecast: A Little Less Bleak in 2011; Just a Little Less Bleak in 2012
- Figure: Unemployment Rate Forecast, 2010-2012
- Stock and housing declines take toll on household wealth: rebound to 2006 levels a long way off
- Figure: Household Wealth: 2004-2009
- Figure: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case Shiller Index
- Food at home gains pricing edge
- Figure: Consumer Price Index: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, 2005-2009
- Figure: Consumer Price Index: Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home, July 2008 - December 2009
- Slight uptick in food inflation expected for 2010
- Figure: Producer Price Index: Selected Commodities, 2007-2009
- Figure: Consumer Price Index: Selected Processed Foods and Feeds, 2007-2009
- CHAPTER 2: CONSUMER RESTAURANT OUTLOOK TRACKER
- Introduction
- Insight Capsule
- Fast Facts
- Consumers’ burden will not lift soon: 25-34s with $50K+ HH show promise
- Consumer Confidence
- Current Situation vs. Expectations
- Figure: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: 2007-2010
- Packaged Facts’ Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Significant Shift to Home Food Spend Continues
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior
- Near Future Portends More of the Same
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior
- Hope resides in positive perceptions about future job security and treating self/others
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood 3 Restaurant spend to be led by 25-34s?
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by Age
- Figure: Restaurant Visits, by Age: 2008-09
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by Age
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by Age
- A split along income lines suggests increasing divergence in use by HH income
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by HH Income
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by HH Income
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by HH Income
- Age & Income Consumer Drill-Downs Reinforce Importance of $50K+ 25-34s to present and future
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Current Behavior, by Age and Income
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Future Behavior, by Age and Income
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Tracker: Event Occurrence Likelihood, by Age and Income
- CHAPTER 3: CONSUMER RESTAURANT USAGE AND SPEND TRACKER
- Introduction
- Insight Capsule
- Fast Facts
- Triple threat: declining guest counts, guest checks, and sales Figure: Average Check, Guest Traffic, and Sales Trends: 2002-09
- Figure: Annual Meals Purchased at Restaurants, Per Person: 2000-095 Fast food remains traffic king: 4 in 10 restaurant visits in past month were to fast food/QSR
- Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type
- Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010
- The Restaurant Generation: 18-34 year-olds still moving through restaurant doors
- Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February-March 2010, by Age
- Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010, by Age
- Discretionary income translates to more frequent use; fast food an egalitarian exception
- Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February-March 2010, by HH Income Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010, by HH Income Minorities above average users across most restaurant types Figure: Mean Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February-March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity
- Figure: Restaurant Usage in Last Month, by Restaurant Type, February- March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity Total Spend Award goes to 25-34s
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend and Party Size Analysis, February-March 2010, by Age
- Average mean cost increases with HH income; party size highest among middle-income users
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend and Party Size Analysis, February-March 2010, by HH Income
- If they love eating healthy, they’ll love spending money
- Figure: Consumer Restaurant Meal Spend and Party Size Analysis: Food and Health AttitudesIntroduction
- CHAPTER 4: SHARE OF STOMACH: SALES ANALYSIS
- Introduction
- Insight Capsule
- Fast Facts
- Figure: Restaurant Performance Index, 2007-2010
- Figure: Food Away From Home versus Food at Home, 2000-2009
- Figure: Food Away From Home, by Segment, 2000-2009
- Figure: Eating and Drinking Places: LSR, FSR, and Snack/Beverage, 2007-2011
- Figure: Limited-Service and Full-Service Restaurants, by Segment, 2007-2011
- Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, LSR Burger, 2008-09
- Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Fast Casual, 2008-09
- Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, QSR “Other,” 2008-09
- Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Family, 2008-09
- Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual Bar & Grill, 2008-09
- Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual International, 2008-09
- Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Casual Other, 2008-09
- Figure: Quarterly Same-Store Sales Comparables, Upscale, 2008-09
- Guest traffic analysis
- Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Snack & Beverage, 2007-09
- Figure: Guest Traffic Index, QSR Burger, 2007-09
- Figure: Guest Traffic Index, QSR Chicken, 2007-09
- Figure: Guest Traffic Index, QSR Pizza, 2007-09
- Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Buffet/Cafeterias, 2007-09
- Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Family Restaurants, 2007-09
- Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Casual Bar/Grill, 2007-09
- Figure: Guest Traffic Index, Casual International, 2007-09
- CHAPTER 5: LEADERS AND LAGGARDS
- Introduction
- Insight Capsule
- Fast Facts
- Starbuck’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- McDonald’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- Burger King: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- Wendy’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- Arby’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- Domino’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- Chipotle: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- Carroll’s Restaurant Group: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- Panera Bread: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- Cracker Barrel: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- Denny’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- IHOP: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- P.F. Chang’s China Bistro: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- The Cheesecake Factory: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- Red Lobster: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- Ruth’s Chris: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- McCormick & Schmick’s: Response to Recession; Core Consumers; 2010 Outlook and Positioning
- CHAPTER 6: DAY PART & ORDERING BEHAVIOR TREND ANALYSIS
- Introduction
- Insight Capsule
- Fast Facts
- Dinner daypart accounts for half of all usage; breakfast less than 10%
- Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010
- With age comes wisdom—and breakfast restaurant use
- Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by Age
- When it comes to HH income, all dayparts are created equal
- Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by HH Income
- For Black and Asian restaurant goers, sweet snacks and just a beverage more popular
- Figure: Day Part Usage on Last Visit, February-March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity
- Dinner ordering behavior: two menu items per person is the norm
- 25-34s most likely to order appetizers, alcoholic beverages; 65+ diners most likely to order dessert
- Figure: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010, by Age
- Alcoholic beverage use 60% more likely among $75K+ diners
- Figure: Dinner Ordering Behavior, February-March 2010, by HH Income
- Daypart trends
- Convenience stores
- Fast food/QSR
- Family restaurants
- Snacking
- Dessert
- Daypart pricing trends
- CHAPTER 7: RESTAURANT & MENU SELECTION ANALYSIS: OVERVIEW
- Introduction
- Insight Capsule
- Fast Facts
- Convenience and familiarity more apt to influence decision than discounts
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors, February-March 2010
- Among restaurant attributes, environmentally friendly practices least apt to influence
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010
- Direct experience with restaurant more likely to influence than recommendations
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations & Curiosity, February-March 2010
- A range of discounts and incentives share influence among consumers
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010
- Healthy and new menu items not a significant restaurant draw
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Preferences, February-March 2010
- On the menu, combo plates and mix-and-match options spur selections
- Figure: Menu Item Selection Factors, February-March 2010
- CHAPTER 8: CONSUMER FOOD & HEALTH ATTITUDE ANALYSIS: OVERVIEW
- Introduction
- Insight Capsule
- Fast Facts
- Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by Age
- Food and Health Attitudes, February-March 2010, by HH Income
- CHAPTER 9: RESTAURANT & MENU SELECTION ANALYSIS: DISCOUNTING AND INCENTIVES, FOOD ATTRIBUTES, AND MENU ATTRIBUTES
- Introduction
- Insight Capsule
- Fast Facts
- Influence of discounts and incentives on consumers
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010
- Degree of influence correlates with youth
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010, by Age
- Specials & combos spur bottom end; gift cards & loyalty programs spur middle and high end
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010, by HH Income
- Take note of different needs by race & ethnicity
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Discounts & Incentives, February-March 2010, by Race/Ethnicity
- Yes, food matters
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, February-March 2010
- To 18-34s: Here’s to your health! Something new? Something small?
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, February-March 2010, by Age
- With heavier pocketbooks comes wider interest in cuisine, healthful items & smaller portions
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Food Attributes, February-March 2010, by HH Income
- Higher interest in rewards programs among healthy eaters and online order placers
- Figure: Food and Health Attitudes, by Discounts & Incentive Preference, February-March 2010
- Menu item strategies that incent selection
- Figure: Menu Selection Factors, February-March 2010
- Fickle youth, strongly persuaded by all but smaller portions
- Figure: Menu Selection Factors, February-March 2010, by Age
- HH income: LTOs & lower prices draw lower end; waiter recs & new items the higher end
- Figure: Menu Selection Factors, February-March 2010, by HH Income
- Menu item selection influence among men & women by healthy eating characteristics
- Health Attitudes, Gender Column, by Menu Selection Influence, February-March 2010
- Menu item selection influence among men & women by budgeting
- characteristics
- Budget Attitudes, by Menu Selection Influence, February-March 2010
- Gift cards and loyalty rewards programs to pick up steam
- Menu pricing strategy a top priority
- Promotions, promotions, promotions: getting granular
- A healthful America: whether we like it or not
- Menu regulation
- Figure: Prevalence of Adult Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity, 1988-2006
- Figure: Prevalence of Overweight Among Children and Adolescents, 1988-2006
- CHAPTER 10: RESTAURANT ANALYSIS: RESTAURANT ATTRIBUTES, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND OTHER PREFERENCES
- Introduction
- Insight Capsule
- Fast Facts
- Practical but memorable, with a twist
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010
- Environmental pulse quickens with youth
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010, by Age
- Special services, ambience, and quick service influenced by HH income
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Restaurant Attributes, February-March 2010, by HH Income
- Take me to . . . where I’ve already been!
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations, February-March 2010
- Age: Reputation and past experience versus recommendations, reviews and something new
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations, February-March 2010, by Age
- Higher HH income; higher use of online reviews
- Figure: Restaurant Selection Factors: Recommendations, February-March 2010, by HH Income
- Convenience comes in many flavors
- Reimaging the rule, not the exception
- Dual branding trend widens
- CHAPTER 11: FAST FOOD VERSUS CASUAL RESTAURANT USERS: FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
- Fast Food, Family, and Casual Restaurants: Low, Medium, and High Frequency Users, by Age, February-March 2010
- Fast Food, Family, and Casual Restaurants: Low, Medium, and High Frequency Users, by HH Income, February-March 2010
- Fast Food Restaurants: Low, Medium, and High Frequency Users, Gender Column, February-March 2010
- CHAPTER 12: PSYCHOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS: BUDGETERS, HEALTH SEEKERS, AND BIG EATERS
- Introduction
- Insight Capsule
- Fast Facts
- Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by Age, February-March 2010
- Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by HH Income, February-March 2010
- Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by Discount & Incentive Preference, February-March 2010
- Figure: Budgeters, Health Seekers, and Big Eaters, Gender Column, by Menu Selection Influence, February-March 2010