United States Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The US defence market is emerging from the boom years, as there is growing consensus over the need to control spending as deficits become an ever greater worry. Leaders have already outlined some US$400bn in cuts over the coming 12 years, but it is likely that this could grow as the government seeks to limit US deficits by controlling what is one of the largest drains on federal resources. Included in cuts already unveiled are US$78bn in savings from cutting the combined strength of the Navy and Marines by 70,000 personnel, as well as billions more in savings as a result of the withdrawal of 33,000 soldiers from Afghanistan. US defence firms have already said that they are increasingly focused on overseas markets, with India's ever larger defence spending being seen as a particularly attractive target.
In terms of the Afghanistan withdrawal, Admiral Mike Mullen, America's top soldier and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said that he was initially unprepared to back such a large withdrawal, describing it as 'aggressive' and likely to 'incur more risk'. Nevertheless, he described maintaining large force levels as the safest course but not necessarily the 'best course'. Some 10,000 troops are set to be withdrawn by the end of 2011 and a further 23,000 by the beginning of summer 2012. US troop levels in Afghanistan had been increased significantly by a 'surge', hoping to replicate the success seen in Iraq using a similar strategy. Despite this, many observers note that success in Afghanistan has proven to be even more elusive than it had been in Iraq, despite higher troop levels.
The United States military killed Osama Bin Laden on the May 1 2011, after a hunt which stretched over a decade before even the 9/11 attacks. Bin Laden was killed in a raid by US Navy Seals on his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. He was killed during the operation and his body was later buried at sea. Pictures of his body have not been released, despite original assertions that they would be.
Boeing has said that India is a major market for its future efforts, according to reports from the Economic Times. This comes despite the painful failure of Boeing to be shortlisted for the current tender process on India's new multi-role combat aircraft, with the Typhoon from Eurofighter and Dassault's Rafale being selected for the US$11bn programme. Yet again it is understood that strict American controls on the transfer of technology may have played a role, with much of the European lobbying with the Indian government concerning their willingness to share technology and involve Indians closely in the production process.
The US defence market is emerging from the boom years, as there is growing consensus over the need to control spending as deficits become an ever greater worry. Leaders have already outlined some US$400bn in cuts over the coming 12 years, but it is likely that this could grow as the government seeks to limit US deficits by controlling what is one of the largest drains on federal resources. Included in cuts already unveiled are US$78bn in savings from cutting the combined strength of the Navy and Marines by 70,000 personnel, as well as billions more in savings as a result of the withdrawal of 33,000 soldiers from Afghanistan. US defence firms have already said that they are increasingly focused on overseas markets, with India's ever larger defence spending being seen as a particularly attractive target.
In terms of the Afghanistan withdrawal, Admiral Mike Mullen, America's top soldier and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said that he was initially unprepared to back such a large withdrawal, describing it as 'aggressive' and likely to 'incur more risk'. Nevertheless, he described maintaining large force levels as the safest course but not necessarily the 'best course'. Some 10,000 troops are set to be withdrawn by the end of 2011 and a further 23,000 by the beginning of summer 2012. US troop levels in Afghanistan had been increased significantly by a 'surge', hoping to replicate the success seen in Iraq using a similar strategy. Despite this, many observers note that success in Afghanistan has proven to be even more elusive than it had been in Iraq, despite higher troop levels.
The United States military killed Osama Bin Laden on the May 1 2011, after a hunt which stretched over a decade before even the 9/11 attacks. Bin Laden was killed in a raid by US Navy Seals on his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. He was killed during the operation and his body was later buried at sea. Pictures of his body have not been released, despite original assertions that they would be.
Boeing has said that India is a major market for its future efforts, according to reports from the Economic Times. This comes despite the painful failure of Boeing to be shortlisted for the current tender process on India's new multi-role combat aircraft, with the Typhoon from Eurofighter and Dassault's Rafale being selected for the US$11bn programme. Yet again it is understood that strict American controls on the transfer of technology may have played a role, with much of the European lobbying with the Indian government concerning their willingness to share technology and involve Indians closely in the production process.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
US Security SWOT
Political SWOT
Economic SWOT
Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Japan After The Quake
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea
Wild Cards To Watch
Security Risk Analysis
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best)
Table: Developed States Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Table: Political Overview
Foreign Policy
Long-Term Political Outlook
Political Risk Analysis
Politics Over Policy: Hefty US Withdrawal A Risk To Progress
Al-Qaeda's Quest For Relevance, And Future Attack Scenarios
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security
Transit Vulnerability
Internal Terrorism
Cyber-Terrorism
Pandemics
Crime And Drugs
External Security Situation
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups – US-Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs)
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)
Iran
North Korea
The Afghanistan Campaign
Iraq
Yemen
Armed Forces And Government Spending
International Deployments
Table: Foreign Deployments
Afghanistan: Trying To End The Stalemate
IEDs – More Deadly
Iraq – Drawing Down, But What Next?
Casualties
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Nuclear And Missile Defence Policy
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
New Markets
Industry Trends And Developments
Defence And Procurement Trends And Developments
Major New Products And Technical Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: US Armed Forces Personnel, 2000-2008 (‘000)
Table: US Armed Forces – Available Manpower For Military Service, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49)
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry
Table: US Armed Forces Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: US Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Table: US Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Table: US Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: United States - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Boeing
General Dynamics
L-3 Communications
Lockheed Martin
Northrop Grumman
Raytheon
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
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