United Kingdom Defence and Security Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The UK’s defence budget cuts, announced in 2010 as part of a wider policy of fiscal retrenchment to address the country’s deficit, came under criticism by a defence committee in August 2011, The Wall Street Journal reports. The select committee, composed of lawmakers from the UK’s major political parties, raised alarm that the cuts will undermine the UK military’s capabilities, arguing that the armed forces are in danger of dropping below the size needed to deliver its commitments. They argued that cuts to equipment, particularly aircraft, will severely hamper the defence of British overseas territories, including the Falkland’s Islands.
In total, the government is planning to slash defence expenditure by more than 8% as part of the government’s plans to limit broader public spending. While the Ministry of Defence has been protected from the 20% cuts that have hit some other government departments, the armed forces are set for a significant squeeze which will have noticeable knock-on effects for UK defence contractors.
Meanwhile, in a further controversial move, defence secretary Liam Fox announced to the House of Commons in May 2011 that the government will be spending GBP3bn on preliminary work for new ballistic missile nuclear submarines. Spending on submarines is a difficult issue for the Conservative- Liberal Democratic coalition, which led the Ministry of Defence to announce a new study into alternatives. The Liberal Democrats are more sceptical of the benefits of Britain making significant investment into a new submarine fleet at a time when public spending is being slashed across the board.
Overall, the government said that spending on the renewal of the British nuclear deterrent is likely to cost between GBP20bn and GBP25bn, greatly above the original price tag of GBP11-14bn which had been estimated in 2006. The government, in a political concession to the Liberal Democrats, has agreed to delay any final decision on the Trident replacement until 2016, a year after the latest possible date for another general election.
Although lively debate continues in the UK regarding the future posture of British defences, both the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force acquitted themselves well during recent combat operations in Libya.
The UK was a significant contributor of forces to support NATO-led efforts to safeguard Libyan civilians against forces loyal to Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Qadhafi. The operation gave the UK the opportunity to showcase several new platforms and weapons systems, including the Eurofighter Typhoon combat aircraft, the ‘dual mode’ Brimstone air-to-ground missile and the operation of Apache AH Mk.1 attack helicopters from ships based in the Mediterranean. Furthermore, the UK demonstrated that it could contribute this large number of forces in a high-tempo operation while continuing to also involve itself in continuing operations in Afghanistan.
The UK’s defence budget cuts, announced in 2010 as part of a wider policy of fiscal retrenchment to address the country’s deficit, came under criticism by a defence committee in August 2011, The Wall Street Journal reports. The select committee, composed of lawmakers from the UK’s major political parties, raised alarm that the cuts will undermine the UK military’s capabilities, arguing that the armed forces are in danger of dropping below the size needed to deliver its commitments. They argued that cuts to equipment, particularly aircraft, will severely hamper the defence of British overseas territories, including the Falkland’s Islands.
In total, the government is planning to slash defence expenditure by more than 8% as part of the government’s plans to limit broader public spending. While the Ministry of Defence has been protected from the 20% cuts that have hit some other government departments, the armed forces are set for a significant squeeze which will have noticeable knock-on effects for UK defence contractors.
Meanwhile, in a further controversial move, defence secretary Liam Fox announced to the House of Commons in May 2011 that the government will be spending GBP3bn on preliminary work for new ballistic missile nuclear submarines. Spending on submarines is a difficult issue for the Conservative- Liberal Democratic coalition, which led the Ministry of Defence to announce a new study into alternatives. The Liberal Democrats are more sceptical of the benefits of Britain making significant investment into a new submarine fleet at a time when public spending is being slashed across the board.
Overall, the government said that spending on the renewal of the British nuclear deterrent is likely to cost between GBP20bn and GBP25bn, greatly above the original price tag of GBP11-14bn which had been estimated in 2006. The government, in a political concession to the Liberal Democrats, has agreed to delay any final decision on the Trident replacement until 2016, a year after the latest possible date for another general election.
Although lively debate continues in the UK regarding the future posture of British defences, both the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force acquitted themselves well during recent combat operations in Libya.
The UK was a significant contributor of forces to support NATO-led efforts to safeguard Libyan civilians against forces loyal to Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Qadhafi. The operation gave the UK the opportunity to showcase several new platforms and weapons systems, including the Eurofighter Typhoon combat aircraft, the ‘dual mode’ Brimstone air-to-ground missile and the operation of Apache AH Mk.1 attack helicopters from ships based in the Mediterranean. Furthermore, the UK demonstrated that it could contribute this large number of forces in a high-tempo operation while continuing to also involve itself in continuing operations in Afghanistan.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
UK Political SWOT
UK Economic SWOT
UK Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Central, Eastern And South-Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
Wild Cards To Watch
Europe Security Overview
Europe In A Global Context
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI's Europe City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Long-Term Political Outlook
Domestic Political Outlook
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Threats
Domestic Terrorism
Northern Ireland
Table: Proscribed Irish Groups
Table: United Kingdom Insurgent Groups
Latest Developments
Timeline: Internal Threats
External Threats
WMD Fears
Drug Trafficking
International Terrorism
Table: Proscribed International Groups
Latest Developments
External Security: Past Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Military Structure And Defence Industry
International Deployments
Table: Principal Peacekeeping Deployments Of UK Armed Forces
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Key Players In The UK’s Defence Sector
Timeline: UK Government Procurement
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: United Kingdom’ Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: United Kingdom’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49)
Government Defence Expenditure
Table: Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn), 2009-2016
Defence Trade
Table: United Kingdom’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: United Kingdom’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: United Kingdom’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
Company Profiles
BAE Systems
GKN
QinetiQ
Rolls-Royce
Country Snapshot: UK Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2011 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
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