Thailand Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Thai general elections will be held on July 3 2011 with the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) party (also known as ‘Red Shirts’) hoping to take government from the incumbent Democrat Coalition. The heavy-handed rule of the Democrat Party has seen military deployments and crackdowns in the troubled southern regions of the nation, as well as more aggressive politics on the borders of Myanmar and Cambodia have led to thousands of deaths and a long line of deadly military incidents over their term in government.
Despite this, the Democrat government has seen some popularity boosts with a ceasefire signed with Cambodia, after several years of on/off skirmishes. Myanmar incursions have been repelled and the massive deployment of troops into the southern areas of Thailand has seen progress towards the mitigation of the Muslim Insurgency there. With the promise of an end to the long-standing emergency rule and broad progress in easing regional tensions the Democrat government stands a chance of winning the coming elections.
After the quite significant protests in March-May 2010, in which 85 died and 1,378 were injured, 100,000 people lost their jobs or went bankrupt and 35 buildings in the capital Bangkok were burned, the government has become acutely aware of the threat that future red-shirt gatherings pose. Such a gathering is possible, indeed highly likely to reoccur (at least on a smaller scale) if the UDD are defeated in the coming general elections. With this in mind, the army and police forces are being reequipped with more advanced arms and having their funding boosted.
Following the granting of major non-NATO ally status to Thailand, arms imports are set to increase as access is gained to more advanced weapons systems. Thailand’s requirement for intelligence and surveillance capabilities in its counter-insurgency campaigns should fuel a demand for high-technology platforms – in particular command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) equipment. Its desire to develop its domestic defence industry through technology transfers is also expected to encourage greater purchases. Arms exports are likely to be nonexistent, except for a few surplus articles delivered, such as the Bronco aircraft donated to the Philippines in late 2003.
Thailand's real GDP growth will moderate to 3.6% in 2011, from 7.8% in 2010, as high base effects kick in and the inventory restocking cycle winds down. Private consumption will be the main driver of growth, contributing 2.6pp to headline expansion this year.
Thai general elections will be held on July 3 2011 with the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) party (also known as ‘Red Shirts’) hoping to take government from the incumbent Democrat Coalition. The heavy-handed rule of the Democrat Party has seen military deployments and crackdowns in the troubled southern regions of the nation, as well as more aggressive politics on the borders of Myanmar and Cambodia have led to thousands of deaths and a long line of deadly military incidents over their term in government.
Despite this, the Democrat government has seen some popularity boosts with a ceasefire signed with Cambodia, after several years of on/off skirmishes. Myanmar incursions have been repelled and the massive deployment of troops into the southern areas of Thailand has seen progress towards the mitigation of the Muslim Insurgency there. With the promise of an end to the long-standing emergency rule and broad progress in easing regional tensions the Democrat government stands a chance of winning the coming elections.
After the quite significant protests in March-May 2010, in which 85 died and 1,378 were injured, 100,000 people lost their jobs or went bankrupt and 35 buildings in the capital Bangkok were burned, the government has become acutely aware of the threat that future red-shirt gatherings pose. Such a gathering is possible, indeed highly likely to reoccur (at least on a smaller scale) if the UDD are defeated in the coming general elections. With this in mind, the army and police forces are being reequipped with more advanced arms and having their funding boosted.
Following the granting of major non-NATO ally status to Thailand, arms imports are set to increase as access is gained to more advanced weapons systems. Thailand’s requirement for intelligence and surveillance capabilities in its counter-insurgency campaigns should fuel a demand for high-technology platforms – in particular command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) equipment. Its desire to develop its domestic defence industry through technology transfers is also expected to encourage greater purchases. Arms exports are likely to be nonexistent, except for a few surplus articles delivered, such as the Bronco aircraft donated to the Philippines in late 2003.
Thailand's real GDP growth will moderate to 3.6% in 2011, from 7.8% in 2010, as high base effects kick in and the inventory restocking cycle winds down. Private consumption will be the main driver of growth, contributing 2.6pp to headline expansion this year.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Thailand Security SWOT
Thailand Defence Industry SWOT
Thailand Political SWOT
Thailand Economic SWOT
Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Japan After The Quake
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea
Wild Cards To Watch
South East Asia Security Overview
South East Asia In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia
The Outlook For South East Asia
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Thailand’s Security Risk
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Foreign Policy
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Overview
Southern Thai Muslim Insurgency
Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents
BRN-K
GMIP/PULO
Bilateral And Multilateral Security Relations
Drugs Trade
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Competitive Landscape
Table: Thailand’s Military Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Thailand’s Armed Forces, 2008-2008 (‘000 personnel unless otherwise stated)
Table: Thailand’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Thailand’s Government Defence Expenditure; 2008-2015
Table: Thailand’s Defence Expenditure And % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Thailand’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Table: Thailand’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Table: Thailand’s Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Thailand – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Free Trade Agreements
Company Profiles
Loxley
Minebea
Thai-Italian Interarms Company
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources 75 Skip to top