Taiwan Defence and Security Report Q4 2012

Date: October 10, 2012
Pages: 69
Price:
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: TB164039B31EN
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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI’s Taiwan Defence and Security Report for Q4 2012 examines the country’s strategic position in the Asia-Pacific region. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report examines the trends occurring in Taiwan’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report’s general conclusion is that the re-election of Kuomintang President Ma Ying-jeou in early 2012 has paved the way for the continuation of relatively warm cross-Strait relations, giving the island confidence about its security outlook for the next few years at least.

However, Ma’s promotion of good relations with China has led to accusations that he has been neglectful of national defence. Perhaps to counter this criticism, Taipei has increased its defence budget for 2012. Ma has also recently begun to act more assertively on territorial issues, pressing Taiwanese claims to the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands as a way of demonstrating that his government will not always simply follow Beijing’s lead when it comes to territorial disputes.

Taiwan has also continued to make progress with some key defence procurement programmes, although some analysts question whether the government is investing in the right capabilities with which to repel a Chinese invasion. However, as long as relations with Beijing remain at an all-time high, such questions will remain matters of academic debate, and are highly unlikely to be tested on the battlefield.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
  • The Ministry of National Defence (MND) finally brought some clarity to its plans to maintain the country’s air force, signing a letter of acceptance for the first phase of a US programme to upgrade its F-16 fleet. However, even with the upgrade programme, the Taiwanese air force is set to shrink drastically as older aircraft types are retired. The MND denied rumours that it was seeking to buy 24 new F-16s, instead of the 66 it had previously requested; it is also understood to be evaluating the newer F-35, although it would be a very long time before the plane could enter Taiwanese service.
  • Ongoing procurement programmes demonstrate Taiwan’s reliance on the US for advanced military systems. Sites for four new Patriot missile defence sites (the system is built by US firms Lockheed Martin and Raytheon) are currently being prepared in Kaohsiung and Taichung. The first of 12 new P-3C Orion maritime surveillance aircraft (another Lockheed Martin product) are expected to arrive in Taiwan soon. Taipei is also seeking to acquire surplus US Army M1 Abrams tanks.
  • The Ma government has attempted to involve itself in the territorial disputes currently affecting the East Asian region, partly to raise Taiwan’s profile internationally, but also to demonstrate domestically that he is prepared to act independently of Beijing on sovereignty issues. Taiwan has a stake in the South China Sea disputes because it has control of the largest of the Spratly Islands chain; it recently outlined plans to extend the runway there, most likely to accommodate its new P-3C Orion aircraft. Ma has also said that he plans to negotiate with Japan over the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, as well as proposing an East China Sea Peace Initiative.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Taiwan Security SWOT
Taiwan Defence Industry SWOT
Taiwan Political SWOT
Taiwan Economic SWOT
Taiwan Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
North East Asia Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia
The China-North Korea Border
The Taiwan Strait
Disputed Islands
The Russia-China Border
China's Western Periphery
Organised Crime
The Evolution Of North East Asia
Security Risk Analysis
  Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
  Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Taiwan’s Security Risk
Political Overview
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Recent Changes
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Competitive Landscape
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
  Table: Taiwan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Taiwan Defence & Security Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
  Table: Taiwan’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
  Table: Taiwan's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
  Table: Taiwan - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC)
CSBC Corporation, Taiwan
Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology
Combined Service Forces
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources

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