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BMI's latest UAE petrochemicals report examines the impact of turnarounds at the Abu Dhabi Polymers (Borouge) complex on Gulf polymers prices over the short-term. It also monitors the latest developments in petrochemicals production in Abu Dhabi and assesses whether planned investment in downstream capacity will be sufficient to overcome the constraints created by the current lack of product diversification and dependence on commodity chemical exports.
Borouge planned to shut its polyolefins facilities at Ruwais, Abu Dhabi for maintenance in Q412 and Q113. This would bring 600,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of polyethylene (PE) capacity offline in December 2012 followed by 540,000tpa high density polyethylene (HDPE) and 800,000tpa polypropylene (PP) withdrawn from production in February 2013. The turnarounds are being used to increase the production of value-added grades, but will temporarily tighten the polymer market as Borouge withdraws from the spot market. However, the effects of Borouge's shut-downs could be mitigated by the start of full operations at facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Nevertheless, the restriction in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) supply from Borouge should help support prices and therefore defend margins going into 2013.
Going forward, the UAE's petrochemicals industry will benefit from the rapid expansion of capacities in highly integrated, state-of-the-art complexes but will be limited by the narrow product range and lack of downstream diversification. These include Borouge 3, which is expected onstream in mid-2014, and the first stage of Chemaweyaat's complex, Tacaamol, which is due onstream by 2016.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
BMI's latest UAE petrochemicals report examines the impact of turnarounds at the Abu Dhabi Polymers (Borouge) complex on Gulf polymers prices over the short-term. It also monitors the latest developments in petrochemicals production in Abu Dhabi and assesses whether planned investment in downstream capacity will be sufficient to overcome the constraints created by the current lack of product diversification and dependence on commodity chemical exports.
Borouge planned to shut its polyolefins facilities at Ruwais, Abu Dhabi for maintenance in Q412 and Q113. This would bring 600,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of polyethylene (PE) capacity offline in December 2012 followed by 540,000tpa high density polyethylene (HDPE) and 800,000tpa polypropylene (PP) withdrawn from production in February 2013. The turnarounds are being used to increase the production of value-added grades, but will temporarily tighten the polymer market as Borouge withdraws from the spot market. However, the effects of Borouge's shut-downs could be mitigated by the start of full operations at facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Nevertheless, the restriction in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) supply from Borouge should help support prices and therefore defend margins going into 2013.
Going forward, the UAE's petrochemicals industry will benefit from the rapid expansion of capacities in highly integrated, state-of-the-art complexes but will be limited by the narrow product range and lack of downstream diversification. These include Borouge 3, which is expected onstream in mid-2014, and the first stage of Chemaweyaat's complex, Tacaamol, which is due onstream by 2016.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI expects ethylene capacity of 5mn tpa in the UAE, up from an estimated 2mn tpa in 2011, with PE more than tripling to 3.52mn tpa and PP rising by nearly 170% to 2.14mn tpa over the period.
- In BMI's Middle Eastern petrochemicals business environment ratings matrix, the UAE has a score of 64.2 points, unchanged since the previous quarter. This quarter, the UAE remains in second place, 3.4 points ahead of Kuwait and 13.5 points behind regional leader Saudi Arabia. Whether the UAE will retain its position will depend on its ability to stay ahead of Qatar in our country risk ratings. The further expansion of Borouge in 2014 and the first phase of the Chemaweyaat complex will bolster its petrochemicals capacities, boosting its score over the medium-term.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
UAE Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
UAE Political SWOT
UAE Economic SWOT
UAE Business Environment SWOT
Global Petrochemicals Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
Middle East Regional Overview
Table: Planned Ethylene Crackers In The Gulf Region
UAE Market Overview
Table: The UAE’s Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Capacity, 2010-2017, (‘000 tpa)
Industry Trends And Developments
Abu Dhabi
Dubai And The Northern Emirates
Overseas Investment
Developments In Related Industries
Table: Major UAE Oil And Gas Concessions
Plastic Conversion Industry
Industry Forecast Scenario
Petrochemicals Outlook
Table: The UAE’s Petrochemicals Projects
Table: The UAE’s Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Middle East and Africa Regional Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economic Activity I
Economic Activity II
Economic Activity III
Company Profiles
Abu Dhabi Fertilizer Industries (Adfert)
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc)
Abu Dhabi Polymers (Borouge)
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Country Snapshot
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020
Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
Cross Checks
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
SWOT Analysis
UAE Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
UAE Political SWOT
UAE Economic SWOT
UAE Business Environment SWOT
Global Petrochemicals Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
Middle East Regional Overview
Table: Planned Ethylene Crackers In The Gulf Region
UAE Market Overview
Table: The UAE’s Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Capacity, 2010-2017, (‘000 tpa)
Industry Trends And Developments
Abu Dhabi
Dubai And The Northern Emirates
Overseas Investment
Developments In Related Industries
Table: Major UAE Oil And Gas Concessions
Plastic Conversion Industry
Industry Forecast Scenario
Petrochemicals Outlook
Table: The UAE’s Petrochemicals Projects
Table: The UAE’s Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Middle East and Africa Regional Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economic Activity I
Economic Activity II
Economic Activity III
Company Profiles
Abu Dhabi Fertilizer Industries (Adfert)
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc)
Abu Dhabi Polymers (Borouge)
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Country Snapshot
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020
Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
Cross Checks
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators