Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Despite the relatively more stable security environment – compared with February 2011 – we expect political risk in Egypt to remain elevated in the near term. Pharmaceutical sales growth forecasts have been increased from February, but remain below pre-crisis rates. This is due to the short-term effects of ongoing strikes and the long-term effects of possible changes to labour laws, reduced investment inflows and political transition on future economic prosperity.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Business Environment Rating: Egypt’s score of 43.5 is down drastically from 48 in Q211 due to the radical changes in its governance. The country’s pharmaceutical market has fallen in BMI’s proprietary BERs from 11th place to 13th.
Key Trends & Developments
BMI Economic View: Although clamping down on top-level corruption will need to be a key long-term goal of any new government, both in helping to bolster public support and attracting much-needed foreign investment, the quick pace at which many of these charges are being planned risks undermining the credibility of the very process the transitional government is trying to strengthen. Moreover, given the inherent links between the business community and the previous regime, a considerable degree of uncertainty exists surrounding which prominent members of the private sector may come under the public prosecutor's line of fire in the near term.
BMI Political View: Despite the relatively more stable security environment, political risk in Egypt should be expected to remain elevated in the near term. Politically-motivated prosecutions and a possible drop in public support for the armed forces remain key risks going forward. Egypt's short-term political risk rating is 53.3 out of 100, placing it fifth from the bottom in MENA.
BMI View: Despite the relatively more stable security environment – compared with February 2011 – we expect political risk in Egypt to remain elevated in the near term. Pharmaceutical sales growth forecasts have been increased from February, but remain below pre-crisis rates. This is due to the short-term effects of ongoing strikes and the long-term effects of possible changes to labour laws, reduced investment inflows and political transition on future economic prosperity.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: EGP15.17bn (US$2.69bn) in 2010 to EGP16.12bn (US$2.71bn) in 2011; +6.3% in local currency terms and +0.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast down significantly from Q211 due to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) political crisis.
- Healthcare: EGP71.68bn (US$12.72bn) in 2010 to EGP79.08bn (US$13.29bn) in 2011; +10.3% in local currency terms and +4.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast down significantly from Q211 due to MENA political crisis.
- Medical devices: EGP2.45bn (US$435mn) in 2010 to EGP2.78bn (US$466mn) in 2011; +13.4% in local currency terms and +7.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q111 due to MENA political crisis.
Business Environment Rating: Egypt’s score of 43.5 is down drastically from 48 in Q211 due to the radical changes in its governance. The country’s pharmaceutical market has fallen in BMI’s proprietary BERs from 11th place to 13th.
Key Trends & Developments
- Egypt’s pharmaceutical market has not yet been fundamentally changed by the political upheaval. If anything, the industry is likely to see a year with very little legislative activity directed towards pharmaceutical regulation. The industry needs to be looking to its representatives and lobby groups to identify future allies within the possible electoral candidates to promote their interests.
- BMI can envisage a scenario in which attempts to appease popular anger at social inequality, repression, autocracy, price inflation and corruption leads to an increase in public expenditure on medical devices and healthcare.
BMI Economic View: Although clamping down on top-level corruption will need to be a key long-term goal of any new government, both in helping to bolster public support and attracting much-needed foreign investment, the quick pace at which many of these charges are being planned risks undermining the credibility of the very process the transitional government is trying to strengthen. Moreover, given the inherent links between the business community and the previous regime, a considerable degree of uncertainty exists surrounding which prominent members of the private sector may come under the public prosecutor's line of fire in the near term.
BMI Political View: Despite the relatively more stable security environment, political risk in Egypt should be expected to remain elevated in the near term. Politically-motivated prosecutions and a possible drop in public support for the armed forces remain key risks going forward. Egypt's short-term political risk rating is 53.3 out of 100, placing it fifth from the bottom in MENA.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Egypt Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry SWOT
Egypt Political SWOT
Egypt Economic SWOT
Egypt Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q311
Egypt’s Business Environment Rating
Rewards
Risks
Egypt – Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Regulatory Developments
Intellectual Property Developments
IP Shortcomings
Counterfeit Medicines
Free Trade Agreements
Pricing Regime
Recent Pricing System Developments
Reimbursement Regime
Industry Developments
Epidemiology
Communicable Disease
Healthcare Sector
Healthcare Insurance
Healthcare Financing
R&D Activity
Clinical Trials
Medical Devices
Developments In The Medical Devices Market
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Egypt – Economic Activity
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Export & Import Indicators 2007-2015
Other Healthcare Data
Key Risks To BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector
Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
Recent Company Developments
Retail Pharmacies
Herbal And OTC Medicine
Company Profiles
Domestic Companies
Egyptian International Pharmaceutical Industries Co (EIPICO)
South Egyptian Drug Industries (SEDICO)
Alexandria Pharmaceuticals
Amoun Pharmaceutical Company (APC)
VASCERA
Misr Pharmaceuticals
Multinational Pharmaceutical Manufacturers
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Sanofi-Aventis
Pfizer
Novartis
Merck & Co
AstraZeneca
Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2010
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components 103
SWOT Analysis
Egypt Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry SWOT
Egypt Political SWOT
Egypt Economic SWOT
Egypt Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q311
Egypt’s Business Environment Rating
Rewards
Risks
Egypt – Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Regulatory Developments
Intellectual Property Developments
IP Shortcomings
Counterfeit Medicines
Free Trade Agreements
Pricing Regime
Recent Pricing System Developments
Reimbursement Regime
Industry Developments
Epidemiology
Communicable Disease
Healthcare Sector
Healthcare Insurance
Healthcare Financing
R&D Activity
Clinical Trials
Medical Devices
Developments In The Medical Devices Market
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Egypt – Economic Activity
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Export & Import Indicators 2007-2015
Other Healthcare Data
Key Risks To BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector
Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
Recent Company Developments
Retail Pharmacies
Herbal And OTC Medicine
Company Profiles
Domestic Companies
Egyptian International Pharmaceutical Industries Co (EIPICO)
South Egyptian Drug Industries (SEDICO)
Alexandria Pharmaceuticals
Amoun Pharmaceutical Company (APC)
VASCERA
Misr Pharmaceuticals
Multinational Pharmaceutical Manufacturers
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Sanofi-Aventis
Pfizer
Novartis
Merck & Co
AstraZeneca
Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2010
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components 103
