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The better-regulated markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), South Africa and Israel remain the most rewarding and least risky for drugmakers operating in the Middle East and Africa (MEA). However, these markets are rapidly approaching maturity and are expected to grow only in the mid-to-high single digits. As pharmaceutical companies look to enter markets with higher potential, they will likely turn their attention first to the Gulf Levant and then North Africa, where population demographics, the regulatory framework and macroeconomic factors will facilitate growth.
Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries remain the final frontier in terms of investment because the risks in these countries are higher and at present the rewards are lower. However, their appeal lies in the long term and the companies that establish their brands sooner rather than later will benefit most. Generally speaking, BMI has preferred the Southern African region over East Africa, which has recently been overtaken in attractiveness by West and Central Africa.
Change At The Top And Bottom In Q312, after two quarters away from the top spot, the UAE has returned to being the most attractive market in BMI's MEA Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) matrix. The reason for the return is an increase the country's medium-term pharmaceutical market growth forecast, which has caused an increase in the UAE's industry rewards score. The higher forecast is primarily due to two factors: the lack of new price-containment measures on pharmaceuticals, which could have slowed market growth beyond 2012, and the increase in historic health expenditure data that undermine the case for the development of a two-tier healthcare market for poorer expatriates.
At the bottom of the table there has also been some movement, with Sudan slipping below Côte d'Ivoire in terms of attractiveness for drugmakers. The continued deterioration in Sudan's political environment, which looks to be heading towards conflict between the North and South, is likely to drive its score even lower in Q412. Furthermore, with Côte d'Ivoire returning to some semblance of stability and the removal of the vastly ineffectual universal free healthcare, its RRR score could improve in future.
The better-regulated markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), South Africa and Israel remain the most rewarding and least risky for drugmakers operating in the Middle East and Africa (MEA). However, these markets are rapidly approaching maturity and are expected to grow only in the mid-to-high single digits. As pharmaceutical companies look to enter markets with higher potential, they will likely turn their attention first to the Gulf Levant and then North Africa, where population demographics, the regulatory framework and macroeconomic factors will facilitate growth.
Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries remain the final frontier in terms of investment because the risks in these countries are higher and at present the rewards are lower. However, their appeal lies in the long term and the companies that establish their brands sooner rather than later will benefit most. Generally speaking, BMI has preferred the Southern African region over East Africa, which has recently been overtaken in attractiveness by West and Central Africa.
Change At The Top And Bottom In Q312, after two quarters away from the top spot, the UAE has returned to being the most attractive market in BMI's MEA Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) matrix. The reason for the return is an increase the country's medium-term pharmaceutical market growth forecast, which has caused an increase in the UAE's industry rewards score. The higher forecast is primarily due to two factors: the lack of new price-containment measures on pharmaceuticals, which could have slowed market growth beyond 2012, and the increase in historic health expenditure data that undermine the case for the development of a two-tier healthcare market for poorer expatriates.
At the bottom of the table there has also been some movement, with Sudan slipping below Côte d'Ivoire in terms of attractiveness for drugmakers. The continued deterioration in Sudan's political environment, which looks to be heading towards conflict between the North and South, is likely to drive its score even lower in Q412. Furthermore, with Côte d'Ivoire returning to some semblance of stability and the removal of the vastly ineffectual universal free healthcare, its RRR score could improve in future.
Industry Business Environment Overview
Table: Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Q312 Risk/Reward Ratings
Sudan
BMI Industry View
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Industry Forecast Scenario
Assessing The Value Of Sudan And South Sudan’s Pharmaceutical Market
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Industry Developments
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
Tanzania
BMI Industry View
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Issues
Medicine Procurement
Industry Forecast Scenario
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
Uganda
BMI Industry View
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Issues
Healthcare Provision
Industry Forecast Scenario
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
Demographic Outlook – Sudan
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Demographic Outlook - Tanzania
Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Tanzania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Tanzania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Demographic Outlook - Uganda
Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Glossary
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
Data & Foreca
Table: Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Q312 Risk/Reward Ratings
Sudan
BMI Industry View
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Industry Forecast Scenario
Assessing The Value Of Sudan And South Sudan’s Pharmaceutical Market
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Industry Developments
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
Tanzania
BMI Industry View
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Issues
Medicine Procurement
Industry Forecast Scenario
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
Uganda
BMI Industry View
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Issues
Healthcare Provision
Industry Forecast Scenario
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
Demographic Outlook – Sudan
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Demographic Outlook - Tanzania
Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Tanzania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Tanzania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Demographic Outlook - Uganda
Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Glossary
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
Data & Foreca