Ukraine Shipping Report Q4 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Following disappointing economic data in the first half of 2011, BMI's country risk desk has factored down its forecasts for the country's real GDP growth for the whole of 2011 to 2.6%. The poor performance from the US economy, in our view, stems from poor weather and high oil prices, which have offset the positive effects of payroll tax cuts and have led once again to consumers tightening their belts. Although retail sales in June recorded a 12th consecutive month of growth, consumer sentiment is weakening. Both the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters index of consumer sentiment and the Conference Board's US consumer confidence index, two of the leading US indexes for the measurement of consumer confidence, recorded consumer sentiment decline.
Conference Board's US overall consumer confidence index fell to 58.5 (1985=100) in June from 61.7 in May. University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters index of consumer sentiment reading is now in its fourth consecutive month of decline, falling to 63.8 - its lowest level since March 2009.
More worrying is the weak sentiment looking ahead. According to data from the Conference Board's US consumer confidence index, positive expectations for the next six months have weakened, with the majority of respondents predicting that business conditions, employment and income will remain at the current levels.
Although BMI expects a modest acceleration of growth in H211 and has in fact factored up its real GDP growth forecasts for 2012 to 3%, we reiterate our core view that the recovery in the US economy is set to be erratic and on the whole weak as households continue to deleverage.
European Consumer Market Strengthening Consumer confidence in Europe, while staging a y-o-y recovery, has weakened month-on-month (m-om), with the Flash Consumer Confidence Index falling to -11 in June from -10.7 in May 2011. The economic outlook in Europe's largest consumer markets (Germany and France), however, continues to strengthen.
BMI holds an above-consensus outlook for Germany and has increased its real GDP forecast to 3.5% due in part to strong confidence indicators and a tightening labour market.
We have also upgraded our economic outlook for France, with growth of 2.2% predicted, up from our previous forecast of 1.7%. The increase in our real GDP forecast comes on the back of France's broadbased recovery, with industry and manufacturing supporting the already strong recovery in private consumption.
Following disappointing economic data in the first half of 2011, BMI's country risk desk has factored down its forecasts for the country's real GDP growth for the whole of 2011 to 2.6%. The poor performance from the US economy, in our view, stems from poor weather and high oil prices, which have offset the positive effects of payroll tax cuts and have led once again to consumers tightening their belts. Although retail sales in June recorded a 12th consecutive month of growth, consumer sentiment is weakening. Both the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters index of consumer sentiment and the Conference Board's US consumer confidence index, two of the leading US indexes for the measurement of consumer confidence, recorded consumer sentiment decline.
Conference Board's US overall consumer confidence index fell to 58.5 (1985=100) in June from 61.7 in May. University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters index of consumer sentiment reading is now in its fourth consecutive month of decline, falling to 63.8 - its lowest level since March 2009.
More worrying is the weak sentiment looking ahead. According to data from the Conference Board's US consumer confidence index, positive expectations for the next six months have weakened, with the majority of respondents predicting that business conditions, employment and income will remain at the current levels.
Although BMI expects a modest acceleration of growth in H211 and has in fact factored up its real GDP growth forecasts for 2012 to 3%, we reiterate our core view that the recovery in the US economy is set to be erratic and on the whole weak as households continue to deleverage.
European Consumer Market Strengthening Consumer confidence in Europe, while staging a y-o-y recovery, has weakened month-on-month (m-om), with the Flash Consumer Confidence Index falling to -11 in June from -10.7 in May 2011. The economic outlook in Europe's largest consumer markets (Germany and France), however, continues to strengthen.
BMI holds an above-consensus outlook for Germany and has increased its real GDP forecast to 3.5% due in part to strong confidence indicators and a tightening labour market.
We have also upgraded our economic outlook for France, with growth of 2.2% predicted, up from our previous forecast of 1.7%. The increase in our real GDP forecast comes on the back of France's broadbased recovery, with industry and manufacturing supporting the already strong recovery in private consumption.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Ukraine Shipping SWOT
Ukraine Political SWOT
Ukraine Economic SWOT
Ukraine Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping
Drivers
Bellwethers
Rates
Capacity
Table: Newbuilds Due Online In The Medium Term
Dry-Bulk
Drivers
Capacity
Rates
Liquid Bulk Shipping
Drivers
Capacity
Rates
Industry Trends and Developments
Market Overview
Odessa Commercial Sea Port
Shipping
Congestion
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Other Facilities
Expansions And Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Sea Commercial Port Of Illichivsk
Shipping
Congestion
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Expansions And Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
Total Throughput
Container Throughput
Table: Major Port Data, 2008-2015
Macroeconomic And Trade Outlook
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2015, 2008-2015
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Ukraine’s Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Ukraine’s Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
HPC Ukraina
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
APL
CSAV
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) Skip to top