Ukraine Shipping Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The Port of Odessa is set to hold the top position in Ukraine's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput in 2012 after overtaking the Port of Illichivsk in terms of boxes handled in 2010.
Odessa has a strong position to build on in 2012. The operator of the container facility at the port, HPC Ukraina, the Ukrainian unit of Germany's Hamburger Hafen Und Logistik (HHLA), is seeking to increase the port's role in the global container shipping sector by developing it into a direct port of call, thereby decreasing Ukraine's reliance on the Romanian port of Constantza for its box transhipment. Over the mid term we project further growth at the port of Odessa. Illichivsk, which returned to positive growth in box throughput 2010, will struggle to compete.
Headline Industry Data
Key Industry Trends
Deep Water Port For Greater Black Sea Share
Ukraine is seeking to increase its market share of Black Sea shipping with the development of a deepwater port. BMI considers the country's plan for such a facility a wise move, as the current trend in both the container and bulk sectors is to operate larger vessels. A port which strives to cater for this trend is likely to ensure its position in the global shipping supply chain.
Diversifying With Box And LNG Strategy
Currently geared toward catering for the bulk shipping sector, the Port of Yuzhny is likely to seek a role in the box and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors in the medium term.
Port Privatisation Bill On Hold
Ukraine's president, Viktor Yanukovych, has vetoed a bill related to the privatisation of the country's seaports. Several private terminals already exist in the country, with private operators managing between 35% and 80% of its ports.
Risks To Outlook
The base for growth at the country's main ports stems from BMI's positive outlook for the Ukrainian economy. Container throughput will be driven by consumer household consumption, a section of the country's economy that is still strengthening. We see Ukraine gradually rebalancing its economy away from the debt-fuelled consumer spending model seen over 2005-2008, as exports continue to drive the economy and consumer credit growth resumes at a sustainable pace. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 4.1% in 2012.
Our Country Risk team sees some IMF programme implementation risks for the country: while our core view calls for Ukraine to adhere to the conditions under its IMF Stand-By Arrangement, a breakdown in relations between Kiev and the international lender would significantly undermine confidence in the domestic economy. However, we currently forecast investment expenditure in Ukraine to increase in the years ahead as the government and private enterprises finally focus on upgrading ageing Soviet-era infrastructure. This, coupled with deepwater terminals plans, creates longer term upside risks to our throughput forecasts for country's ports.
The Port of Odessa is set to hold the top position in Ukraine's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput in 2012 after overtaking the Port of Illichivsk in terms of boxes handled in 2010.
Odessa has a strong position to build on in 2012. The operator of the container facility at the port, HPC Ukraina, the Ukrainian unit of Germany's Hamburger Hafen Und Logistik (HHLA), is seeking to increase the port's role in the global container shipping sector by developing it into a direct port of call, thereby decreasing Ukraine's reliance on the Romanian port of Constantza for its box transhipment. Over the mid term we project further growth at the port of Odessa. Illichivsk, which returned to positive growth in box throughput 2010, will struggle to compete.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Odessa tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3%, over the mid-term we project a 21% increase.
- 2012 Port of Odessa container throughput forecast to grow 3%, over the mid-term we project a 13% increase.
- 2012 total trade growth forecast at 8.55%.
Key Industry Trends
Deep Water Port For Greater Black Sea Share
Ukraine is seeking to increase its market share of Black Sea shipping with the development of a deepwater port. BMI considers the country's plan for such a facility a wise move, as the current trend in both the container and bulk sectors is to operate larger vessels. A port which strives to cater for this trend is likely to ensure its position in the global shipping supply chain.
Diversifying With Box And LNG Strategy
Currently geared toward catering for the bulk shipping sector, the Port of Yuzhny is likely to seek a role in the box and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors in the medium term.
Port Privatisation Bill On Hold
Ukraine's president, Viktor Yanukovych, has vetoed a bill related to the privatisation of the country's seaports. Several private terminals already exist in the country, with private operators managing between 35% and 80% of its ports.
Risks To Outlook
The base for growth at the country's main ports stems from BMI's positive outlook for the Ukrainian economy. Container throughput will be driven by consumer household consumption, a section of the country's economy that is still strengthening. We see Ukraine gradually rebalancing its economy away from the debt-fuelled consumer spending model seen over 2005-2008, as exports continue to drive the economy and consumer credit growth resumes at a sustainable pace. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 4.1% in 2012.
Our Country Risk team sees some IMF programme implementation risks for the country: while our core view calls for Ukraine to adhere to the conditions under its IMF Stand-By Arrangement, a breakdown in relations between Kiev and the international lender would significantly undermine confidence in the domestic economy. However, we currently forecast investment expenditure in Ukraine to increase in the years ahead as the government and private enterprises finally focus on upgrading ageing Soviet-era infrastructure. This, coupled with deepwater terminals plans, creates longer term upside risks to our throughput forecasts for country's ports.
Contents
SWOT AnalysisUkraine Shipping SWOT
Ukraine Political SWOT
Ukraine Economic SWOT
Ukraine Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping
Lines To Enter 2012 In The Red
Overcapacity To Plague Medium Term, Beware 2013
Table: Snapshot Of Container Lines' Orders
ETR Short And Long Term Benefits To Woo Carrier Expansion
Table: Top 20 World Ports
Port Operators To Face Tougher 2012 As Box Volumes Slow
Container Curse To Hit Box Manufacturers, But Outlook Strong
Dry Bulk
Chinese Slowdown Threat Double Downside Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping
Vale May Find Solace With South Korea As Chinese Troubles Continue
Lines Need To Up Capacity Reduction Strategies To Ease Oversupply
Dry Bulk Lines In Choppy Waters, Possibility Of More Bankruptcies
Liquid Bulk
Dirty Tanker Indices Not Very Buoyant
Differing Strategies, Differing Fortunes
Genmar Bankruptcy Just The Beginning
Survival Strategies For Floundering Tanker Operators
Rumoured Chinese Order Has Potential To Sink Crude Oil Shipping Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
Odessa Commercial Sea Port
Shipping
Congestion
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Expansions And Developments
Sea Commercial Port Of Illichivsk
Shipping
Congestion
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Expansions And Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
Port Of Odessa Throughput Outlook
Port Of Illichivsk Throughput Outlook
Table: Major Port Data – Throughput, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Ukraine's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Ukraine's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
HPC Ukraina
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
APL
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
CSAV Skip to top