Turkey Shipping Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: GDP Slowdown Expected in 2012
Having benefited from the economy's strong growth, particularly in the first half of 2011, the Turkish ports and shipping sector is likely to be affected by a GDP slowdown in 2012. BMI has revised down its forecasts for Turkey, taking note of continuing domestic inflationary pressures, a precarious balance of payments position, and deteriorating global economic conditions, particularly in the eurozone, an important trade partner. Political risk also remains high, not least because of the continuing violence in neighbouring Syria. BMI now estimates 2011 GDP growth of 7.0%, falling sharply to 1.8% in 2012 (a reduction on our previous 2012 forecast of 4.5% GDP growth).
In terms of industry specifics, we are still projecting reasonable growth at Turkey's main ports, with throughput still expanding but generally at a slower rate than in 2011.
Headline Industry Data
Key Industry Trends
Turkey Trade Routes To Bypass Syria
As the violence in Syria continues and Damascus-Ankara bilateral relations continue to deteriorate, Turkish economy minister Zafer Caglayan said the country was developing new trade routes to bypass Syria. These include a maritime route via Egypt and an overland route via Iraq. In 2010 Turkey had a trade surplus with Syria, exporting goods worth a total of US$1.8bn to its neighbour in 2010, while imports from Syria were US$663mn, accounting for only 0.3% of Turkey's total imports.
Prospects For New Mersin-Alexandria Shipping Route
Although prompted by the situation with Syria, the launch of a new shipping service between Turkey's Mersin port and Alexandria in Egypt may reflect longer term changes in Turkish trade. The shipping service further highlights Turkey's increasing interest in the MENA region, something BMI first drew attention to in September 2011, when Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited states in the region that had experienced significant political turmoil during the Arab Spring. Egypt was Erdoğan's first port of call on a trip that included visits to Tunisia and Libya and was interpreted as a move to foster Turkey's regional influence. We expect Turkey to continue to diversify and strengthen its trade and investment linkages away from the West towards the more vibrant emerging markets in the Middle East, as well as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Botswana Coal Deal Will Boost Shipping Demand
According to press reports in December 2011, Turkey was close to a deal to buy coal from Botswana's Morupule Colliery. If confirmed, a sales agreement could boost dry bulk shipping demand on an East Africa-Mediterranean route. The mine's marketing manager Jonathan Vergeer said: 'We have found a niche market in Turkey and we are looking to export through Mozambique. During a recent conference in Mozambique, we looked at both Maputo and Matola ports. The current rail and port infrastructure can support between 1.5 and 2mn tonnes of coal exports per annum through Mozambique.'
Key Risks To Outlook
Since our last quarterly report, when we believed that the key risks to our Turkish ports and shipping forecast were evenly balanced, we have moved to a somewhat more bearish view. We now believe downside risks are more prominent. BMI does not exclude the possibility of a 'hard landing' for the Turkish economy, given the combination of ongoing inflationary pressures, a weak balance of payments, and a slowing global economy. In that scenario, demand for shipping services would be negatively affected. In the medium term, upside risks remain present: it is possible, for example, that Turkey's role as a shipping hub in the Eastern Mediterranean will develop faster than we expect.
BMI View: GDP Slowdown Expected in 2012
Having benefited from the economy's strong growth, particularly in the first half of 2011, the Turkish ports and shipping sector is likely to be affected by a GDP slowdown in 2012. BMI has revised down its forecasts for Turkey, taking note of continuing domestic inflationary pressures, a precarious balance of payments position, and deteriorating global economic conditions, particularly in the eurozone, an important trade partner. Political risk also remains high, not least because of the continuing violence in neighbouring Syria. BMI now estimates 2011 GDP growth of 7.0%, falling sharply to 1.8% in 2012 (a reduction on our previous 2012 forecast of 4.5% GDP growth).
In terms of industry specifics, we are still projecting reasonable growth at Turkey's main ports, with throughput still expanding but generally at a slower rate than in 2011.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Ambarli general and liquid bulk cargoes tonnage throughput forecast to grow 12.6% to 4.55mn tonnes; over the mid-term we project an average annual 11.6% increase.
- 2011 Port of Ambarli container throughput forecast to grow by 8.2%; over the mid-term we project average annual growth of 7.8%.
- Turkey's 2011 total trade growth forecast at 5.7% (down from an estimated 8.3% in 2011).
Key Industry Trends
Turkey Trade Routes To Bypass Syria
As the violence in Syria continues and Damascus-Ankara bilateral relations continue to deteriorate, Turkish economy minister Zafer Caglayan said the country was developing new trade routes to bypass Syria. These include a maritime route via Egypt and an overland route via Iraq. In 2010 Turkey had a trade surplus with Syria, exporting goods worth a total of US$1.8bn to its neighbour in 2010, while imports from Syria were US$663mn, accounting for only 0.3% of Turkey's total imports.
Prospects For New Mersin-Alexandria Shipping Route
Although prompted by the situation with Syria, the launch of a new shipping service between Turkey's Mersin port and Alexandria in Egypt may reflect longer term changes in Turkish trade. The shipping service further highlights Turkey's increasing interest in the MENA region, something BMI first drew attention to in September 2011, when Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited states in the region that had experienced significant political turmoil during the Arab Spring. Egypt was Erdoğan's first port of call on a trip that included visits to Tunisia and Libya and was interpreted as a move to foster Turkey's regional influence. We expect Turkey to continue to diversify and strengthen its trade and investment linkages away from the West towards the more vibrant emerging markets in the Middle East, as well as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Botswana Coal Deal Will Boost Shipping Demand
According to press reports in December 2011, Turkey was close to a deal to buy coal from Botswana's Morupule Colliery. If confirmed, a sales agreement could boost dry bulk shipping demand on an East Africa-Mediterranean route. The mine's marketing manager Jonathan Vergeer said: 'We have found a niche market in Turkey and we are looking to export through Mozambique. During a recent conference in Mozambique, we looked at both Maputo and Matola ports. The current rail and port infrastructure can support between 1.5 and 2mn tonnes of coal exports per annum through Mozambique.'
Key Risks To Outlook
Since our last quarterly report, when we believed that the key risks to our Turkish ports and shipping forecast were evenly balanced, we have moved to a somewhat more bearish view. We now believe downside risks are more prominent. BMI does not exclude the possibility of a 'hard landing' for the Turkish economy, given the combination of ongoing inflationary pressures, a weak balance of payments, and a slowing global economy. In that scenario, demand for shipping services would be negatively affected. In the medium term, upside risks remain present: it is possible, for example, that Turkey's role as a shipping hub in the Eastern Mediterranean will develop faster than we expect.
Contents
SWOT AnalysisTurkey Shipping SWOT
Turkey Political SWOT
Turkey Economic SWOT
Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping
Lines To Enter 2012 In The Red
Overcapacity To Plague Medium Term, Beware 2013
Table: Snapshot Of Container Lines' Orders
ETR Short And Long Term Benefits To Woo Carrier Expansion
Table: Top 20 World Ports
Port Operators To Face Tougher 2012 As Box Volumes Slow
Container Curse To Hit Box Manufacturers, But Outlook Strong
Dry Bulk
Chinese Slowdown Threat Double Downside Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping
Vale May Find Solace With South Korea As Chinese Troubles Continue
Lines Need To Up Capacity Reduction Strategies To Ease Oversupply
Dry Bulk Lines In Choppy Waters, Possibility Of More Bankruptcies
Liquid Bulk
Dirty Tanker Indices Not Very Buoyant
Differing Strategies, Differing Fortunes
Genmar Bankruptcy Just The Beginning
Survival Strategies For Floundering Tanker Operators
Rumoured Chinese Order Has Potential To Sink Crude Oil Shipping Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview – Port Of Ambarli
Shipping
Congestion
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Other Cargo Handling Facilities
Expansions And Developments
Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
Port Of Ambali Throughput Overview
Table: Major Port Data – Throughput, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Turkey's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Turkey's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
Turkon Line
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
APL
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
CSAV Skip to top