Turkey Freight Transport Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View Having benefited from the economy's strong growth, particularly in the first half of 2011, the Turkish freight transport sector is likely to be affected by a GDP slowdown in 2012. BMI has revised down its forecasts for Turkey, taking note of continuing domestic inflationary pressures, a precarious balance of payments position and deteriorating global economic conditions, particularly in the eurozone, an important trade partner. Political risk also remains high, not least because of the continuing violence in neighbouring Syria. BMI now estimates GDP growth of 7.0% in 2011, falling sharply to 1.8% in 2012 (a reduction on our previous 2012 forecast for 4.5% growth).
In terms of industry specifics, we are still projecting strong growth at Turkey's main ports and airports, with throughput continuing to expand but generally at a slower rate than in 2011; the same can be said of rail and road haulage volumes.
Headline Industry Data
Turkey Trade Routes To Bypass Syria
As the violence in Syria continues and Damascus-Ankara bilateral relations continue to deteriorate, Turkish economy minister Zafer Caglayan said the country was developing new trade routes to bypass Syria. These include a maritime route via Egypt and an overland route via Iraq. In 2010 Turkey had a trade surplus with Syria, exporting goods worth a total of US$1.8bn to its neighbour in 2010, while imports from Syria were US$663mn, accounting for only 0.3% of Turkey's total imports.
Prospects For New Mersin-Alexandria Shipping Route Although prompted by the situation with Syria, the launch of a new shipping service between Turkey's Mersin port and Alexandria in Egypt may reflect longer term changes in Turkish trade. The shipping service further highlights Turkey's increasing interest in the MENA region, something BMI first drew attention to in September 2011, when Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited states in the region that had experienced significant political turmoil during the Arab Spring. Egypt was Erdoğan's first port of call on a trip that included visits to Tunisia and Libya and was interpreted as a move to foster Turkey's regional influence. We expect Turkey to continue to diversify and strengthen its trade and investment linkages away from the West towards the more vibrant emerging markets in the Middle East, as well as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Good Year For Turkish Cargo Turkish Cargo, the subsidiary of state-owned Turkish Airlines, registered a 22.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in cargo volume in January-September 2011, reported Air Cargo News. According to Turkish Cargo senior vice-president, Soner Akkurt, the carrier was expecting to post a 24% y-o-y rise in air cargo volume by the end of 2011. The airline's total cargo shipments comprised 89% international traffic and 11% domestic traffic during the period. Meanwhile, the carrier has extended its services to 20 new destinations, while its fleet size has also grown with the addition of 24 new aircraft during the reported period.
Key Risks To Outlook Since our last quarterly report, when we believed that the key risks to our Turkish freight industry forecasts were evenly balanced, we have moved to a somewhat more bearish view. We now believe downside risks are more prominent. BMI does not exclude the possibility of a 'hard landing' for the Turkish economy, given the combination of ongoing inflationary pressures, a weak balance of payments position, and a slowing global economy. In that scenario demand for shipping services would be negatively affected. In the medium term, upside risks remain present: it is possible, for example, that Turkey's role as a shipping hub in the Eastern Mediterranean will develop faster than we expect.
BMI View Having benefited from the economy's strong growth, particularly in the first half of 2011, the Turkish freight transport sector is likely to be affected by a GDP slowdown in 2012. BMI has revised down its forecasts for Turkey, taking note of continuing domestic inflationary pressures, a precarious balance of payments position and deteriorating global economic conditions, particularly in the eurozone, an important trade partner. Political risk also remains high, not least because of the continuing violence in neighbouring Syria. BMI now estimates GDP growth of 7.0% in 2011, falling sharply to 1.8% in 2012 (a reduction on our previous 2012 forecast for 4.5% growth).
In terms of industry specifics, we are still projecting strong growth at Turkey's main ports and airports, with throughput continuing to expand but generally at a slower rate than in 2011; the same can be said of rail and road haulage volumes.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 4.5% to 2.139mn tonnes.
- 2012 rail freight volume is forecast to grow by 2.3% to reach 25.023mn tonnes.
- 2012 Port of Ambarli tonnage is forecast to grow by 12.6% to 4.546mn tonnes.
- 2012 road freight volume is forecast to grow by 2.0% to 195.509bn tonnes-km.
- 2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 5.7%, down from 8.3% the preceding year.
Turkey Trade Routes To Bypass Syria
As the violence in Syria continues and Damascus-Ankara bilateral relations continue to deteriorate, Turkish economy minister Zafer Caglayan said the country was developing new trade routes to bypass Syria. These include a maritime route via Egypt and an overland route via Iraq. In 2010 Turkey had a trade surplus with Syria, exporting goods worth a total of US$1.8bn to its neighbour in 2010, while imports from Syria were US$663mn, accounting for only 0.3% of Turkey's total imports.
Prospects For New Mersin-Alexandria Shipping Route Although prompted by the situation with Syria, the launch of a new shipping service between Turkey's Mersin port and Alexandria in Egypt may reflect longer term changes in Turkish trade. The shipping service further highlights Turkey's increasing interest in the MENA region, something BMI first drew attention to in September 2011, when Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited states in the region that had experienced significant political turmoil during the Arab Spring. Egypt was Erdoğan's first port of call on a trip that included visits to Tunisia and Libya and was interpreted as a move to foster Turkey's regional influence. We expect Turkey to continue to diversify and strengthen its trade and investment linkages away from the West towards the more vibrant emerging markets in the Middle East, as well as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Good Year For Turkish Cargo Turkish Cargo, the subsidiary of state-owned Turkish Airlines, registered a 22.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in cargo volume in January-September 2011, reported Air Cargo News. According to Turkish Cargo senior vice-president, Soner Akkurt, the carrier was expecting to post a 24% y-o-y rise in air cargo volume by the end of 2011. The airline's total cargo shipments comprised 89% international traffic and 11% domestic traffic during the period. Meanwhile, the carrier has extended its services to 20 new destinations, while its fleet size has also grown with the addition of 24 new aircraft during the reported period.
Key Risks To Outlook Since our last quarterly report, when we believed that the key risks to our Turkish freight industry forecasts were evenly balanced, we have moved to a somewhat more bearish view. We now believe downside risks are more prominent. BMI does not exclude the possibility of a 'hard landing' for the Turkish economy, given the combination of ongoing inflationary pressures, a weak balance of payments position, and a slowing global economy. In that scenario demand for shipping services would be negatively affected. In the medium term, upside risks remain present: it is possible, for example, that Turkey's role as a shipping hub in the Eastern Mediterranean will develop faster than we expect.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Turkey Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Turkey Political SWOT
Turkey Economic SWOT
Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
Multimodal/Logistics
Road
Air
Maritime
Market Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016 ('000 tonnes)
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016 (mn tonnes-km)
Maritime Freight
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2016 ('000 tonnes and % change y-o-y)
Rail Freight
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016
Table: Turkey's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Turkey's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Political Outlook
Foreign Policy
Long-Term Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Turkey – Economic Activity, 2011- 2016
Company Profiles
Turkish State Railways (TCDD)
Turkon Line
Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
Sources Skip to top