Thailand Shipping Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
We are predicting moderate expansion for the Thai ports and shipping sector in 2011. We see two major trends. On the one hand, the Thai economy is growing at a somewhat lower rate this year, as the country faces global economic headwinds. Offsetting this slowdown, we see some signs of medium-term strength, including a reasonably strong labour market and a revival of investment growth. As a result of our analysis, BMI now forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 3.6% (following the 7.8% expansion experienced in 2010). On the other hand, port and shipping activity looks like expanding faster than GDP this year, partly because of leads and lags in the supply chain.
Headline Industry Data
Gross tonnage at Laem Chabang, the country's largest port, set to rise by 8.1% to 55.642mn tonnes this year. Box handling at the same port to rise 8% to 5.490mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
At Port of Bangkok BMI projects 5.4% tonnage growth to 17.49mn tonnes in 2011, with container handling set to grow 6.2% to 1.492mn TEUs.
Real value of foreign trade set to grow 2.7% in 2011, with imports up by 2.8% and exports marginally behind at 2.7%.
Key Industry Trends
Qatargas Delivers First LNG Shipment To Thailand - In June Qatargas delivered its first 130,000 cubic metre shipment of liquid natural gas (LNG) to the purpose-built Map Ta Phut LNG terminal. Thai imports of LNG are expected to grow significantly through this terminal.
Burma Moving Ahead With US$8bn Dawei Project - Thai exports will have a new western route, through Daiwei port. The Italian-Thai Development Company, selected late last year to execute the US$8bn project, says the port will become 'a gateway to Indochina and south China'. While Daiwei will reduce transport costs and shipping times, it could also take business away from Bangkok Port.
Congestion Causes Protests at Bangkok Port - A number of business and trade lobbies have complained about the closure of two out of Bangkok Port's seven wharves for maintenance work. The shut-down started in October 2010 and will last the better part of a year. With a scarcity of berths, some shippers have faced surcharges of between US$50 to US$100 per container.
Key Risks To Outlook
The general elections in July pose the major risk to our forecasts. On the downside we fear that an opposition victory for the Puea Thai Party could usher in a new cycle of instability. The party's Prime Ministerial candidate, Yingluck Shinawatra, is the sister of exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, and efforts to bring him back to power could spark a new military coup and another turn in the ongoing political conflict the country has experienced since 2006. At its worst, a new crisis might trigger renewed mass protests and associated disruption of economic activity. BMI also notes however that a victory by the ruling Democrat Party coalition would have upside risks for our forecasts.
We are predicting moderate expansion for the Thai ports and shipping sector in 2011. We see two major trends. On the one hand, the Thai economy is growing at a somewhat lower rate this year, as the country faces global economic headwinds. Offsetting this slowdown, we see some signs of medium-term strength, including a reasonably strong labour market and a revival of investment growth. As a result of our analysis, BMI now forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 3.6% (following the 7.8% expansion experienced in 2010). On the other hand, port and shipping activity looks like expanding faster than GDP this year, partly because of leads and lags in the supply chain.
Headline Industry Data
Gross tonnage at Laem Chabang, the country's largest port, set to rise by 8.1% to 55.642mn tonnes this year. Box handling at the same port to rise 8% to 5.490mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
At Port of Bangkok BMI projects 5.4% tonnage growth to 17.49mn tonnes in 2011, with container handling set to grow 6.2% to 1.492mn TEUs.
Real value of foreign trade set to grow 2.7% in 2011, with imports up by 2.8% and exports marginally behind at 2.7%.
Key Industry Trends
Qatargas Delivers First LNG Shipment To Thailand - In June Qatargas delivered its first 130,000 cubic metre shipment of liquid natural gas (LNG) to the purpose-built Map Ta Phut LNG terminal. Thai imports of LNG are expected to grow significantly through this terminal.
Burma Moving Ahead With US$8bn Dawei Project - Thai exports will have a new western route, through Daiwei port. The Italian-Thai Development Company, selected late last year to execute the US$8bn project, says the port will become 'a gateway to Indochina and south China'. While Daiwei will reduce transport costs and shipping times, it could also take business away from Bangkok Port.
Congestion Causes Protests at Bangkok Port - A number of business and trade lobbies have complained about the closure of two out of Bangkok Port's seven wharves for maintenance work. The shut-down started in October 2010 and will last the better part of a year. With a scarcity of berths, some shippers have faced surcharges of between US$50 to US$100 per container.
Key Risks To Outlook
The general elections in July pose the major risk to our forecasts. On the downside we fear that an opposition victory for the Puea Thai Party could usher in a new cycle of instability. The party's Prime Ministerial candidate, Yingluck Shinawatra, is the sister of exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, and efforts to bring him back to power could spark a new military coup and another turn in the ongoing political conflict the country has experienced since 2006. At its worst, a new crisis might trigger renewed mass protests and associated disruption of economic activity. BMI also notes however that a victory by the ruling Democrat Party coalition would have upside risks for our forecasts.
Contents
Executive SummaryHeadline Industry Data
Key Industry Trends
Key Risks To Outlook
SWOT Analysis
Thailand Shipping SWOT
Thailand Political SWOT
Thailand Economic SWOT
Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping Overview
Drivers
Bellwethers
Rates
Players
Dry-Bulk Shipping Overview
Drivers
Capacity
Rates
Liquid Bulk Shipping Overview
Drivers
Capacity
Rates
Players
Geopolitical Developments
Industry Trends and Development
First LNG Tanker Docks At Map Ta Phut
Minority Shareholders Make Play For TTA
Burma's US$8bn Daiwei Port Project Advancing
Congestion Causes Concern At Bangkok
Logistics Report Calls For Port Investment
Market Overview
Port of Laem Chabang
Port of Bangkok
Industry Forecast
Macro: Headwinds Moderate Growth Rate
Total Tonnage: Laem Chabang Forecast Held at 8.1%
Container Throughput: 8% Growth In Main Box Port
Trade: Growth To Lag GDP This Year
Table: Major Port Data
Table: Trade Overview
Table: Key Trade Indicators
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Company Profile
Regional Container Lines (RCL)
Precious Shipping PCL (PSL)
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
APL
CSAV
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) . 94 Skip to top