South Africa Shipping Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI is cautiously optimistic about the South African economy in 2011, and about the related prospects for the ports and shipping sector. Our optimism is based on a revival of retail sales and general demand throughout the economy, with the supply side also beginning to respond, although with more of a delay.
Earlier fears over the effects of an overvalued rand are beginning to ease. The ruling ANC did reasonably well in local elections in May. A number of risks remain, including a potential rise in inflation and uncertainty over whether President Jacob Zuma will stand for re-election in 2014, and whether there will be an early start to the succession campaign. That said, the immediate outlook is benign. BMI now forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 3.5% (following the 2.8% expansion experienced in 2010). Our outlook for 2012 is for growth to gather pace to 4.0%. In the five years to 2015 we expect growth to average 4.0% per annum.
Looking at some of the ports and shipping sector specifics, we expect a fairly mixed performance against this broad economic and foreign trade growth background. Based on tonnage numbers in the first quarter, some ports may experience contraction this year (Cape Town) or low growth (Richard Bay) due to maintenance work and other issues. On the other hand, ports such as Durban will experience double-digit expansion.
Headline Industry Data
2011 Port of Durban container throughput growth forecast at 1.57% to 2.593mn TEUs. Growth to average 6.9% over the mid term (2011 to 2015).
2011 Port of Durban tonnage throughput growth forecast at 26.57% to 72.654mn tonnes, and to average 6.8% to 2015.
2011 South African total trade real growth forecast at 8.75% and to average 7.4% to 2015.
Key Industry Trends
CMA CGM Launches Shaka Service - French shipping company CMA CGM has launched a new service on a promising trade route running from South Africa, through the Indian Ocean Islands, to Asia. The service, which offers a rotation of Fuxhou, Xiamen, Kaohsiung, Hong Kong, Chiwan, Singapore, Port Louis, Durban, Port Elizabeth (Ngqura), Port Louis, Singapore and Fuzhou, will operate with a fleet of six vessels offering capacities of between 4,500 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and 6,500TEUs.
Transnet Plans New Durban Port - Transnet, the state-owned ports and rail operator, is moving forward with a plan to build a new US$14.5bn container port in Durban with 6mn TEUs of capacity. Construction would begin in 2015, with a first phase completed by 2019. The private sector may be invited to participate in the project. In 2010 the port handled 2.55mn TEUs, still a little below the pre-recession peak of 2.64mn TEUs achieved in 2008.
Strikes at Richard Bay, Durban Ports Averted - Negotiations between the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) and the South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (SATAWU) in early April were successful to the extent that the threat of strike action at both facilities was lifted. Management and unions had been at odds over proposed changes to the shift-working system.
Key Risks to Outlook
Political factors constitute a downside risk to our industry forecasts. Our main concern is perhaps more of a mid-term than a short-term issue: a potential fragmentation of the left-wing alliance that underpins the ruling African National Congress (ANC). We believe positioning for the next presidential elections, along with popular dissatisfaction over unemployment and signs of corruption and nepotism, could all cause friction within the ANC and its close allies such as the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South African Communist Party (SACP). We are particularly mindful of COSATU - should it become disaffected industrial militancy might rise, with an effect on unionised port workers.
BMI is cautiously optimistic about the South African economy in 2011, and about the related prospects for the ports and shipping sector. Our optimism is based on a revival of retail sales and general demand throughout the economy, with the supply side also beginning to respond, although with more of a delay.
Earlier fears over the effects of an overvalued rand are beginning to ease. The ruling ANC did reasonably well in local elections in May. A number of risks remain, including a potential rise in inflation and uncertainty over whether President Jacob Zuma will stand for re-election in 2014, and whether there will be an early start to the succession campaign. That said, the immediate outlook is benign. BMI now forecasts 2011 GDP growth of 3.5% (following the 2.8% expansion experienced in 2010). Our outlook for 2012 is for growth to gather pace to 4.0%. In the five years to 2015 we expect growth to average 4.0% per annum.
Looking at some of the ports and shipping sector specifics, we expect a fairly mixed performance against this broad economic and foreign trade growth background. Based on tonnage numbers in the first quarter, some ports may experience contraction this year (Cape Town) or low growth (Richard Bay) due to maintenance work and other issues. On the other hand, ports such as Durban will experience double-digit expansion.
Headline Industry Data
2011 Port of Durban container throughput growth forecast at 1.57% to 2.593mn TEUs. Growth to average 6.9% over the mid term (2011 to 2015).
2011 Port of Durban tonnage throughput growth forecast at 26.57% to 72.654mn tonnes, and to average 6.8% to 2015.
2011 South African total trade real growth forecast at 8.75% and to average 7.4% to 2015.
Key Industry Trends
CMA CGM Launches Shaka Service - French shipping company CMA CGM has launched a new service on a promising trade route running from South Africa, through the Indian Ocean Islands, to Asia. The service, which offers a rotation of Fuxhou, Xiamen, Kaohsiung, Hong Kong, Chiwan, Singapore, Port Louis, Durban, Port Elizabeth (Ngqura), Port Louis, Singapore and Fuzhou, will operate with a fleet of six vessels offering capacities of between 4,500 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and 6,500TEUs.
Transnet Plans New Durban Port - Transnet, the state-owned ports and rail operator, is moving forward with a plan to build a new US$14.5bn container port in Durban with 6mn TEUs of capacity. Construction would begin in 2015, with a first phase completed by 2019. The private sector may be invited to participate in the project. In 2010 the port handled 2.55mn TEUs, still a little below the pre-recession peak of 2.64mn TEUs achieved in 2008.
Strikes at Richard Bay, Durban Ports Averted - Negotiations between the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) and the South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (SATAWU) in early April were successful to the extent that the threat of strike action at both facilities was lifted. Management and unions had been at odds over proposed changes to the shift-working system.
Key Risks to Outlook
Political factors constitute a downside risk to our industry forecasts. Our main concern is perhaps more of a mid-term than a short-term issue: a potential fragmentation of the left-wing alliance that underpins the ruling African National Congress (ANC). We believe positioning for the next presidential elections, along with popular dissatisfaction over unemployment and signs of corruption and nepotism, could all cause friction within the ANC and its close allies such as the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South African Communist Party (SACP). We are particularly mindful of COSATU - should it become disaffected industrial militancy might rise, with an effect on unionised port workers.
Contents
Executive SummaryHeadline Industry Data
Key Industry Trends
Key Risks to Outlook
SWOT Analysis
South Africa Shipping SWOT
South Africa Political SWOT
South Africa Economic SWOT
South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping Overview
Drivers
Bellwethers
Rates
Players
Dry-Bulk Shipping Overview
Drivers
Capacity
Rates
Liquid Bulk Shipping Overview
Drivers
Capacity
Rates
Players
Geopolitical Developments
Industry Trends and Development
Italy's Messina Boosts Ro-Ro Service To South Africa
CMA CGM Launches Shaka Service Between South Africa And Asia
Durban Box Traffic Halved In May
Rail Link To Richard Bay Closed For Maintenance
Richards Bay And Durban Port Strike Averted
Cape Town Limits Mega-Vessels
New Port Planned For Durban
Market Overview
Port of Durban
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Port of Cape Town
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Industry Forecast
Macro: Demand Picking Up
Total Tonnage: Growth In Most (But Not All) Ports
Container Throughput: Box Handling Growth Forecasts Reduced
Trade: Growth Forecast Edged Up Marginally
Table: Major Port Data
Table: Trade Overview
Table: Key Trade Indicators
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Company Profile
Safmarine
Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL)
United Africa Feeder Line
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
APL
CSAV
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) . 96 Skip to top