Russia Shipping Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Russia's two bellwethers, the port of Novorossiysk (the country's largest port in terms of total throughput) and the port of St Petersburg (its main box facility), are set to hold their respective top positions in its maritime sector in 2012. Novorossiysk's growth in terms of both tonnage and containers is being helped by preparations for the Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014.
St Petersburg should fully recover its tonnage throughput in 2012, while Novorossiysk's tonnage will remain flat. Container volumes at both ports will remain on the increase.
Over the mid term we project further growth at both the port of Novorossiysk and the port of St Petersburg.
Headline Industry Data
Russia's Far East Ports Diversify With Box Strategy
Russia's Far Eastern ports, known traditionally for their role in the country's coal supply chain, are expanding their credentials in the box shipping sector as it expands its trading links with Asia and also develops its strategic location as a conduit for goods from Asia into the European marketplace.
UGC Diversifies Export Routes And Looks To Asia
A plan by Russia's United Grain Company (UGC) to develop a grain terminal on Russia's Far East coast highlights the company's desire to expand into the Asian grain market. BMI notes that this represents a strategy change in Russia's grain exports supply chain, which has traditionally centred on using Black Sea ports, near where grain is grown. By diversifying the export route, grain will have to travel further overland, in BMI's view increasing the likelihood of disruptions to the supply chain.
Ust-Luga's Throughput Grows, Upside Risks Aplenty
The port of Ust-Luga is continuing to grow in importance in Russia's port sector. The facility is well placed to take advantage of congestion and harsh weather conditions at the nearby port of St Petersburg, which have boosted its volumes. Further upside risk is presented by plans to make the port a major oil transit point for Russia, and a gateway for containerised goods.
Port Operators Make Inroads Into Russia
BMI notes that Russia is gradually warming to the idea of outside involvement in its ports. Fellow UAE port operator DP World maintains a stake in the Russian Far East port of Vostochny, and APM Terminals (AMPT) said earlier in 2011 that it was considering investing in the new port of Baltiysk in the Kaliningrad region. We can understand Russia's growing interest in global port operators, as these firms bring with them expertise and investment that can massively increase a port's throughput.
Russian Shipping Lines And Ports To Benefit From Rising Interest In NSR
Foreign interest is increasing in the Northern Sea Route (NSR), with both South Korea and Japan investigating the benefits it could offer. Russian shipping lines and ports stand to gain the most from development of the route, as countries are seeking Russia's assistance as they branch out into the NSR.
Risks To Outlook
The base for slower growth at the country's ports stems from BMI's more moderate outlook for the Russian economy. We are especially concerned by the weakening in consumer demand, which our Country Risk team has highlighted, with consumers hurt by high inflation in H111, as container throughput at Russia's ports has been mainly driven by the country's high consumption of manufactured goods. BMI has lowered its real GDP growth forecasts for Russia to 3.3% and 3.2% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, placing it substantially below consensus, as the external environment grows increasingly more challenging. The real private consumption growth is expected to slow from an estimated 4.6% in 2011 to 3% in 2012.
Russia's two bellwethers, the port of Novorossiysk (the country's largest port in terms of total throughput) and the port of St Petersburg (its main box facility), are set to hold their respective top positions in its maritime sector in 2012. Novorossiysk's growth in terms of both tonnage and containers is being helped by preparations for the Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014.
St Petersburg should fully recover its tonnage throughput in 2012, while Novorossiysk's tonnage will remain flat. Container volumes at both ports will remain on the increase.
Over the mid term we project further growth at both the port of Novorossiysk and the port of St Petersburg.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 port of Novorossiysk tonnage throughput forecast to grow 1%, over the mid term we project a 2% increase.
- 2012 port of St Petersburg container throughput forecast to grow 9%, over the mid term we project a 57% increase.
- 2012 total trade growth forecast at 6%.
Russia's Far East Ports Diversify With Box Strategy
Russia's Far Eastern ports, known traditionally for their role in the country's coal supply chain, are expanding their credentials in the box shipping sector as it expands its trading links with Asia and also develops its strategic location as a conduit for goods from Asia into the European marketplace.
UGC Diversifies Export Routes And Looks To Asia
A plan by Russia's United Grain Company (UGC) to develop a grain terminal on Russia's Far East coast highlights the company's desire to expand into the Asian grain market. BMI notes that this represents a strategy change in Russia's grain exports supply chain, which has traditionally centred on using Black Sea ports, near where grain is grown. By diversifying the export route, grain will have to travel further overland, in BMI's view increasing the likelihood of disruptions to the supply chain.
Ust-Luga's Throughput Grows, Upside Risks Aplenty
The port of Ust-Luga is continuing to grow in importance in Russia's port sector. The facility is well placed to take advantage of congestion and harsh weather conditions at the nearby port of St Petersburg, which have boosted its volumes. Further upside risk is presented by plans to make the port a major oil transit point for Russia, and a gateway for containerised goods.
Port Operators Make Inroads Into Russia
BMI notes that Russia is gradually warming to the idea of outside involvement in its ports. Fellow UAE port operator DP World maintains a stake in the Russian Far East port of Vostochny, and APM Terminals (AMPT) said earlier in 2011 that it was considering investing in the new port of Baltiysk in the Kaliningrad region. We can understand Russia's growing interest in global port operators, as these firms bring with them expertise and investment that can massively increase a port's throughput.
Russian Shipping Lines And Ports To Benefit From Rising Interest In NSR
Foreign interest is increasing in the Northern Sea Route (NSR), with both South Korea and Japan investigating the benefits it could offer. Russian shipping lines and ports stand to gain the most from development of the route, as countries are seeking Russia's assistance as they branch out into the NSR.
Risks To Outlook
The base for slower growth at the country's ports stems from BMI's more moderate outlook for the Russian economy. We are especially concerned by the weakening in consumer demand, which our Country Risk team has highlighted, with consumers hurt by high inflation in H111, as container throughput at Russia's ports has been mainly driven by the country's high consumption of manufactured goods. BMI has lowered its real GDP growth forecasts for Russia to 3.3% and 3.2% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, placing it substantially below consensus, as the external environment grows increasingly more challenging. The real private consumption growth is expected to slow from an estimated 4.6% in 2011 to 3% in 2012.
Contents
SWOT AnalysisRussia Shipping SWOT
Russia Political SWOT
Russia Economic SWOT
Russia Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping
Lines To Enter 2012 In The Red
Overcapacity To Plague Medium Term, Beware 2013
Table: Snapshot Of Container Lines' Orders
ETR Short And Long Term Benefits To Woo Carrier Expansion
Table: Top 20 World Ports
Port Operators To Face Tougher 2012 As Box Volumes Slow
Container Curse To Hit Box Manufacturers, But Outlook Strong
Dry Bulk
Chinese Slowdown Threat Double Downside Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping
Vale May Find Solace With South Korea As Chinese Troubles Continue
Lines Need To Up Capacity Reduction Strategies To Ease Oversupply
Dry Bulk Lines In Choppy Waters, Possibility Of More Bankruptcies
Liquid Bulk
Dirty Tanker Indices Not Very Buoyant
Differing Strategies, Differing Fortunes
Genmar Bankruptcy Just The Beginning
Survival Strategies For Floundering Tanker Operators
Rumoured Chinese Order Has Potential To Sink Crude Oil Shipping Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
Industry Forecast
Port Of St Petersburg
Port Of Novorossiysk
Table: Major Port Data – Throughput And % Change Y-o-Y, 2008-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Russia’s Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Russia’s Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
Murmansk Shipping Company (MSC)
Primorsk Shipping Corporation (PRISCO)
Sovcomflot (SCF Group)
FESCO Transportation Group (FESCO)
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
APL
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
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