Malaysia Shipping Report Q4 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Positive Outlook We are still positive in our outlook for the Malaysian port and shipping sector in 2011. Since our last quarterly report, and despite continuing concern over external headwinds, we have raised our forecast for Malaysian economic growth to 4.8%, compared with 3.4% earlier. This will help boost demand for shipping and port services. Although container rates remain rather soft, reflecting a degree of overcapacity on some key routes such as Asia-Europe, we also feel confident enough to increase our expectation of general cargo volume growth at key Malaysian ports.
Economic growth continues to be led by rising domestic consumption and private sector investment. BMI sees Malaysia shifting from export-led growth to more inwardly focused expansion over the next few years. Our outlook for 2012 is for growth to ease further to 4.2%. In the five years to 2015 we expect growth to average 4.2% per annum.
Headline Industry Data
The real value of total trade will rise by an estimated 9.4% this year, with exports gaining 8.8%, lagging behind import growth of 9.9%.
Total volume handled at Port Klang will rise by 7.5% to 183,569mn tonnes in 2011, while volume at the Port of Tanjung Pelepas will rise by 7.3% to 120.272mn tonnes.
Box traffic at Port Klang is projected to rise 7.3% to 9.548mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), while at the port of Tanjung Pelepas a 6.2% gain to 6.904mn TEUs is expected.
Key Industry Trends Box Growth In First Four Months Nearly 11% - The number of containers handled at Malaysia's ports rose by 10.7% to 6.5mn TEUs in the first four months of 2011, up from 5.8mn TEUs in the comparable 2010 period, news agencies said. The growth was attributed to rising economic activity and an improved security situation in the Malacca Straits. Transport minister Kong Cho Ha was cited saying that 'the Malacca straits, the main route for cargo ships, has become the world's safest route in recent years after Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore worked together to secure the waters'.
Cargo Theft Raises Its Head - A series of media reports highlighted that Malaysia is suffering from a growing problem of cargo theft, with a number of criminal syndicates said to be active. The picture is not clear cut, however. While some consultancies say the incidence of cargo theft is rising, police figures suggest increased security measures are paying off and the number of recorded incidents is actually falling, down to 60 cases in 2010, compared with 357 in 2006. The non-profit Transport Asset Protection Association estimated that around US$22.7mn-worth of goods was stolen from Malaysian ports, airports, warehouses and trucks in 2007-2010.
Petronas Refinery Complex Could Boost Tanker Demand - Petronas, the state-owned oil and gas company, said in May that it would build a US$20bn integrated refinery and petrochemicals complex in the south of the country near Singapore. The state oil company said of the proposed site in Pengerang that 'Its close proximity to regional demand centres is expected to attract potential collaborations with global partners in logistics and product distribution.'
Key Risks to Outlook One of the major downside risks to our ports and shipping forecast is political and involves a potential opposition victory in the next general election, which could be called this year (although they could equally be held at any point up until 2013). Our current view is that the election is most likely to be held in 2012; the ruling coalition lost seats in recent elections in Sarawak and the government is therefore losing enthusiasm for an early call to general elections. Despite some loss of support we still believe that the governing Barisan Nasional coalition is most likely to be re-elected, but the opposition Pakatan Rakyat group could nevertheless achieve a surprise victory. If that were to happen, we believe there will be a period of uncertainty with lower investment and GDP growth. However, we do not see this as a longterm threat to Malaysia's mixed state-private sector economic model.
A second risk, which could be go to the upside or downside (although at the moment it is more likely to be the downside), is the performance of the Chinese economy, which has a major influence on Malaysia through bilateral trade and its wider impact on regional and world economies. The risk is that Beijing, concerned about domestic inflation, may further rein in growth, resulting in lower than expected demand for Malaysian exports and shipping services.
BMI View: Positive Outlook We are still positive in our outlook for the Malaysian port and shipping sector in 2011. Since our last quarterly report, and despite continuing concern over external headwinds, we have raised our forecast for Malaysian economic growth to 4.8%, compared with 3.4% earlier. This will help boost demand for shipping and port services. Although container rates remain rather soft, reflecting a degree of overcapacity on some key routes such as Asia-Europe, we also feel confident enough to increase our expectation of general cargo volume growth at key Malaysian ports.
Economic growth continues to be led by rising domestic consumption and private sector investment. BMI sees Malaysia shifting from export-led growth to more inwardly focused expansion over the next few years. Our outlook for 2012 is for growth to ease further to 4.2%. In the five years to 2015 we expect growth to average 4.2% per annum.
Headline Industry Data
The real value of total trade will rise by an estimated 9.4% this year, with exports gaining 8.8%, lagging behind import growth of 9.9%.
Total volume handled at Port Klang will rise by 7.5% to 183,569mn tonnes in 2011, while volume at the Port of Tanjung Pelepas will rise by 7.3% to 120.272mn tonnes.
Box traffic at Port Klang is projected to rise 7.3% to 9.548mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), while at the port of Tanjung Pelepas a 6.2% gain to 6.904mn TEUs is expected.
Key Industry Trends Box Growth In First Four Months Nearly 11% - The number of containers handled at Malaysia's ports rose by 10.7% to 6.5mn TEUs in the first four months of 2011, up from 5.8mn TEUs in the comparable 2010 period, news agencies said. The growth was attributed to rising economic activity and an improved security situation in the Malacca Straits. Transport minister Kong Cho Ha was cited saying that 'the Malacca straits, the main route for cargo ships, has become the world's safest route in recent years after Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore worked together to secure the waters'.
Cargo Theft Raises Its Head - A series of media reports highlighted that Malaysia is suffering from a growing problem of cargo theft, with a number of criminal syndicates said to be active. The picture is not clear cut, however. While some consultancies say the incidence of cargo theft is rising, police figures suggest increased security measures are paying off and the number of recorded incidents is actually falling, down to 60 cases in 2010, compared with 357 in 2006. The non-profit Transport Asset Protection Association estimated that around US$22.7mn-worth of goods was stolen from Malaysian ports, airports, warehouses and trucks in 2007-2010.
Petronas Refinery Complex Could Boost Tanker Demand - Petronas, the state-owned oil and gas company, said in May that it would build a US$20bn integrated refinery and petrochemicals complex in the south of the country near Singapore. The state oil company said of the proposed site in Pengerang that 'Its close proximity to regional demand centres is expected to attract potential collaborations with global partners in logistics and product distribution.'
Key Risks to Outlook One of the major downside risks to our ports and shipping forecast is political and involves a potential opposition victory in the next general election, which could be called this year (although they could equally be held at any point up until 2013). Our current view is that the election is most likely to be held in 2012; the ruling coalition lost seats in recent elections in Sarawak and the government is therefore losing enthusiasm for an early call to general elections. Despite some loss of support we still believe that the governing Barisan Nasional coalition is most likely to be re-elected, but the opposition Pakatan Rakyat group could nevertheless achieve a surprise victory. If that were to happen, we believe there will be a period of uncertainty with lower investment and GDP growth. However, we do not see this as a longterm threat to Malaysia's mixed state-private sector economic model.
A second risk, which could be go to the upside or downside (although at the moment it is more likely to be the downside), is the performance of the Chinese economy, which has a major influence on Malaysia through bilateral trade and its wider impact on regional and world economies. The risk is that Beijing, concerned about domestic inflation, may further rein in growth, resulting in lower than expected demand for Malaysian exports and shipping services.
Contents
Executive SummaryBMI View: Positive Outlook
Headline Industry Data
Key Industry Trends
Key Risks to Outlook
SWOT Analysis
Malaysia Shipping SWOT
Malaysia Telecoms SWOT
Malaysia Political SWOT
Malaysia Economic SWOT
Global Overview
Container Shipping: Overcapacity Threat To Haunt In The Mid Term, Asia-Europe Most Exposed
Drivers
BELLWETHERS
Rates
Capacity
Title: Newbuilds Due Online In The Mid Term
Dry-Bulk: No Recovery on the Horizon for Dry Bulk As Overcapacity Cloud Hangs Low
Drivers
Capacity
Rates
Liquid Bulk Shipping: At the Start of a Brutal Down Cycle
Drivers
Capacity
Rates
Industry Trends and Developments
Cargo Theft Cited As Malaysian Issue
Nigeria Buys Malaysian Gunboats
Box Traffic Growth Exceeds 10% In First Four Months
Petronas Planning New Petrochemicals Export Hub
MISC Acquires VLCCs And Aframaxes
New Asia-East Africa Service
Market Overview
Port of Tanjung Pelepas
Overview
Storage
Port Klang
Overview
Shipping
Congestion
Terminals, Storage And Equipment
Industry Forecast
Macro: External Headwinds Constrain Domestic Expansion
Total Tonnage: Port Klang Cargo Projection Raised
Container Throughput: Forecasts Held For Top Two Container Ports
Trade: Value Growth In High Single Digits In 2011
Table 1: Major Port Data
Table 2: Trade Overview
Table 3: Key Trade Indicators
Table 4: Main Import Partners
Table 5: Main Export Partners
Company Profiles
MISC Berhad
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
APL
CSAV
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) . 95 Skip to top