Lithuania Freight Transport Report 2012
We have raised our exports of goods and services projection for 2011 to 16.1% real growth, up from 12.6% previously. However, the overall effect on the net export contribution to headline growth in 2012 will be muted, given that we also raised our full-year import growth forecast to 17.1%, from 12.8% previously. The gap between exports and imports in 2011 has increased, suggesting a net export contribution of 1.8 percentage points (pps) to headline growth in 2011, according to our calculations.
Headline Industry Data
Klaipeda-Kalining Traffic Volume Soars 57.5%
Seven-month volume of container traffic on the Klaipeda-Kaliningrad railway surged 57.5% in the first seven months of 2011 from January-July of 2010, to 430,000 units. The state-owned company plans to resume operation of the Mercury container train in 2011. The train will run between Kaliningrad, Klaipeda and Moscow.
The Mercury was first launched in 2003 as a joint project between Russia, Belarus and Lithuania. Its operation had boosted container traffic on the Kaliningrad railway by two times as much. However, in 2006 the project was cancelled due to low level of profitability.
Agility's China-Lithuania Connection Takes Flight
Agility is entering a niche, but growing market, with the launch of its air freight service from China to Kaunas in Lithuania. BMI notes a trend for linking China with the Baltic States, a strategy we believe is due to the countries' location, offering China an entry point for goods to Russia and Europe.
Risks To Outlook
If the recession in the eurozone and Russia (a key trading partner) is deeper and more protracted than we currently forecast, this would affect Lithuanian economic activity and would likely result in a delay in recovery.
Headline Industry Data
- We expect air freight volumes to grow 7.8% to 11,030 tonnes in 2012. We believe growth will average 7% a year in the five years to 2016.
- At the Port of Klaipeda we forecast growth in cargo volume of 3.55% to 37.7mn tonnes
- We expect rail freight volumes to grow by 1.55% to 52.6mn tonnes in 2012.
- In 2012 we expect total road tonnage volume to increase by 3.7% to 54.9mn tonnes.
Klaipeda-Kalining Traffic Volume Soars 57.5%
Seven-month volume of container traffic on the Klaipeda-Kaliningrad railway surged 57.5% in the first seven months of 2011 from January-July of 2010, to 430,000 units. The state-owned company plans to resume operation of the Mercury container train in 2011. The train will run between Kaliningrad, Klaipeda and Moscow.
The Mercury was first launched in 2003 as a joint project between Russia, Belarus and Lithuania. Its operation had boosted container traffic on the Kaliningrad railway by two times as much. However, in 2006 the project was cancelled due to low level of profitability.
Agility's China-Lithuania Connection Takes Flight
Agility is entering a niche, but growing market, with the launch of its air freight service from China to Kaunas in Lithuania. BMI notes a trend for linking China with the Baltic States, a strategy we believe is due to the countries' location, offering China an entry point for goods to Russia and Europe.
Risks To Outlook
If the recession in the eurozone and Russia (a key trading partner) is deeper and more protracted than we currently forecast, this would affect Lithuanian economic activity and would likely result in a delay in recovery.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Lithuania Political SWOT
Lithuania Economic SWOT
Estonia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
Maritime
Rail
Air
Market Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Industry Forecast
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2007-2016
Maritime Freight
Table: Maritime Freight - Klaipeda State Seaport Throughput, 2007-2016
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2007-2016
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight, 2007-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: Lithuania's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: Lithuania's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Lithuania – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Company Profiles
Lithuanian Shipping Company
Lithuanian Railways Cargo (Lietuvos Geležinkeliai)
Country Snapshot: Lithuania Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Transport Industry
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