Japan Shipping Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The March 11 earthquake has led BMI to trim its forecasts for the Japanese economy this year, with downside effects on ports and shipping. Macroeconomic growth in the Japanese economy will be lower than expected in 2011, with a 'reconstruction rebound' playing out in 2012. We are factoring in GDP growth of 0.7% in 2011 with growth gathering pace to 1.8% in 2012. Uncertainty has also increased, with renewed question marks over the fiscal balance, potential inflationary effects of reconstruction, and the need to select new political leadership in the wake of the natural disaster.
Factors specifically relating to the ports and shipping sector are mixed. While a number of north-eastern ports were damaged, the country's largest facilities remain unaffected. Disruption of supply chains has to be seen as a negative factor, but there might even by an upside. Following the earthquake-induced failure at the Fukushima nuclear complex, for example, any backlash against nuclear power could boost Japan's thermal coal imports, and therefore increase dry-bulk shipping demand.
Headline Industry Data
Port of Chiba 2011 tonnage throughput forecast to grow 0.81%, with average annual year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 1.1% during our forecast period.
Port of Nagoya 2011 tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3.11%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 4.7% during our forecast period.
Port of Tokyo 2011 container throughput forecast to grow 2.94%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 3.8% during our forecast period.
Port of Yokohama 2011 container throughput forecast to grow 4.76%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 5.9% during our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends
Ports Slowly Return To Normal After Earthquake - Following the 'triple blow' on March 11 - a major earthquake, tsunami and associated reactor failure and radiation leak at the Fukushima nuclear complex - Japanese ports and shipping have been slowly returning to normal. The oil terminal at the port of Onahama was expected to resume operations in June. An initial series of bans on Japanese imports at various ports around the world, triggered by radiation fears, were relaxed or dropped. However, supply chain disruptions are expected to impact on the overall level of Japanese exports this year.
NYK Tries Out Mega-Container Vessels - Japanese shipping company NYK, which has been cautious over the purchase of larger box ships, is moving to try some of them out on a charter basis. At present NYK has only two 9,076 20-foot equivalent unit (TEUs) vessels on order, representing about 2% of its existing fleet capacity. But it has now agreed to charter four 13,000TEU ships from Hong Kong's Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) in what BMI sees as a move to manage its risks.
MOL Sees Coal Import Opportunity - Mitsui OSK Lines is developing a new type of dry bulker in partnership with local shipbuilder Sanoyas. The wide-beamed 104,000 deadweight tonne vessels will be the largest thermal coal carriers yet used. MOL believes worries over nuclear power may boost Japanese import demand for thermal coal.
Key Risks To Outlook
The March 11th earthquake damaged a number of the country's north-eastern ports, as well as having a dampening effect on Japan's total exports because of supply-chain disruptions and initial radiation fears.
While this has been broadly incorporated into our current projections, two further downside risks have now materialised. The first is that the return to normal across the country's supply chains may take longer than expected. The second is a political risk, since it is now clear that Prime Minister Naoto Kan, whose handling of the earthquake did not play well in the opinion polls, will step down during the course of this year. We believe that uncertainty over the selection of a new Prime Minister is most likely to be a downside risk, although we recognise that the emergence of a 'grand coalition' administration, one of the potential scenarios, would potentially be a confidence-booster.
The March 11 earthquake has led BMI to trim its forecasts for the Japanese economy this year, with downside effects on ports and shipping. Macroeconomic growth in the Japanese economy will be lower than expected in 2011, with a 'reconstruction rebound' playing out in 2012. We are factoring in GDP growth of 0.7% in 2011 with growth gathering pace to 1.8% in 2012. Uncertainty has also increased, with renewed question marks over the fiscal balance, potential inflationary effects of reconstruction, and the need to select new political leadership in the wake of the natural disaster.
Factors specifically relating to the ports and shipping sector are mixed. While a number of north-eastern ports were damaged, the country's largest facilities remain unaffected. Disruption of supply chains has to be seen as a negative factor, but there might even by an upside. Following the earthquake-induced failure at the Fukushima nuclear complex, for example, any backlash against nuclear power could boost Japan's thermal coal imports, and therefore increase dry-bulk shipping demand.
Headline Industry Data
Port of Chiba 2011 tonnage throughput forecast to grow 0.81%, with average annual year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 1.1% during our forecast period.
Port of Nagoya 2011 tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3.11%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 4.7% during our forecast period.
Port of Tokyo 2011 container throughput forecast to grow 2.94%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 3.8% during our forecast period.
Port of Yokohama 2011 container throughput forecast to grow 4.76%, with average annual y-o-y growth of 5.9% during our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends
Ports Slowly Return To Normal After Earthquake - Following the 'triple blow' on March 11 - a major earthquake, tsunami and associated reactor failure and radiation leak at the Fukushima nuclear complex - Japanese ports and shipping have been slowly returning to normal. The oil terminal at the port of Onahama was expected to resume operations in June. An initial series of bans on Japanese imports at various ports around the world, triggered by radiation fears, were relaxed or dropped. However, supply chain disruptions are expected to impact on the overall level of Japanese exports this year.
NYK Tries Out Mega-Container Vessels - Japanese shipping company NYK, which has been cautious over the purchase of larger box ships, is moving to try some of them out on a charter basis. At present NYK has only two 9,076 20-foot equivalent unit (TEUs) vessels on order, representing about 2% of its existing fleet capacity. But it has now agreed to charter four 13,000TEU ships from Hong Kong's Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) in what BMI sees as a move to manage its risks.
MOL Sees Coal Import Opportunity - Mitsui OSK Lines is developing a new type of dry bulker in partnership with local shipbuilder Sanoyas. The wide-beamed 104,000 deadweight tonne vessels will be the largest thermal coal carriers yet used. MOL believes worries over nuclear power may boost Japanese import demand for thermal coal.
Key Risks To Outlook
The March 11th earthquake damaged a number of the country's north-eastern ports, as well as having a dampening effect on Japan's total exports because of supply-chain disruptions and initial radiation fears.
While this has been broadly incorporated into our current projections, two further downside risks have now materialised. The first is that the return to normal across the country's supply chains may take longer than expected. The second is a political risk, since it is now clear that Prime Minister Naoto Kan, whose handling of the earthquake did not play well in the opinion polls, will step down during the course of this year. We believe that uncertainty over the selection of a new Prime Minister is most likely to be a downside risk, although we recognise that the emergence of a 'grand coalition' administration, one of the potential scenarios, would potentially be a confidence-booster.
Contents
Executive SummaryBMI View: Japan Shaken By March Earthquake
Headline Industry Data
Key Industry Trends
Key Risks To Outlook
SWOT Analysis
Japan Shipping SWOT
Japan Political SWOT
Japan Economic SWOT
Japan Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Container Industry Overview
Drivers
Bellwethers
Rates
Players
Dry Bulk Shipping Overview
Drivers
Capacity
Rates
Liquid Bulk Shipping Overview
Drivers
Capacity
Rates
Players
Geopolitical Developments
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
Port of Tokyo
Overview
Shipping
Terminals, Storage and Equipment
Storage
Port of Yokohama
Overview
Shipping
Terminals, Storage and Equipment
Equipment
Industry Forecast
Table: Major Port Data
Table: Trade Overview
Table: Key Trade Indicators
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Company Profiles
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
NYK Container Line
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd.
NYK Line (Dry Bulk)
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) Tankers
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Hapag-Lloyd
Evergreen Line
APL
CSAV
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 105 Skip to top