Global Oil Market Report: Price; Supply and Demand; Products
Price Correction In H2 In H111, OPEC Basket averaged around US$106/bbl, while Brent crude averaged around US$111/bbl. We twice revised our price forecasts in the period, once in March and again in May. Our most recent price forecast was for Brent to average US$106/bbl over the course of 2011 with OPEC Basket averaging US$101.90/bbl.
WTI, meanwhile, will continue to be weighed down by plentiful stored crude volumes at Cushing, Oklahoma and weak economic sentiment in the US. We see WTI averaging US$95.30/bbl. OPEC Basket and Brent would have to average US$96.83/bbl and US$100.84/ bbl respectively for the rest of 2011 in order to match our forecasts for the year.
We maintain our view of a downward price correction in H211, owing to a combination of several factors. The US economic recovery remains weak and tentative, and talk grows of a second release of crude oil and refined products from IEA stockpiles in order to force down prices. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait have all increased oil production. Furthermore, the end of the second phase of quantitative easing in the US could have a bullish effect on the US dollar, in which much of the global oil trade is priced. We believe, therefore, that the stars are aligning for a downward price movement.
WTI, meanwhile, will continue to be weighed down by plentiful stored crude volumes at Cushing, Oklahoma and weak economic sentiment in the US. We see WTI averaging US$95.30/bbl. OPEC Basket and Brent would have to average US$96.83/bbl and US$100.84/ bbl respectively for the rest of 2011 in order to match our forecasts for the year.
We maintain our view of a downward price correction in H211, owing to a combination of several factors. The US economic recovery remains weak and tentative, and talk grows of a second release of crude oil and refined products from IEA stockpiles in order to force down prices. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait have all increased oil production. Furthermore, the end of the second phase of quantitative easing in the US could have a bullish effect on the US dollar, in which much of the global oil trade is priced. We believe, therefore, that the stars are aligning for a downward price movement.
Contents
Global Oil Market OutlookBMI Oil Price Forecast
Price Correction In H2
CHART: Upward Revision For 2012
BMI Oil Price Forecast
CHART: Arab Spring, Et Al
WTI vs. Brent Futures (US$/bbl)
Global Oil Supply and Demand Outlook
BMI Supply And Demand Outlook
Tightness Continues In To 2012
TABLE: GLOBAL OIL CONSUMPTION (‘000B/D)
INDICATORS: Africa, Middle East, Developed Europe, North America, Asia/Pacific,
Developing Europe, La tin America, Global Total, OECD , Non- OECD ,
Global Demand Growth, %, OEDC Demand Growth, %, Non-OECD Demand Growth, %
TABLE: BMI COMPARED TO CONSENS US–2011 (% CHG Y-O-Y)
INDICATORS: Global Demand Growth, OECD Demand Growth, Non-OECD Demand Growth,
Global Supply Growth, OPEC Supply Growth, Non-OPEC Supply Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION (‘000 B/D)
INDICATORS: Africa, Middle East, Developed Europe, North America, Asia/Pacific,
Emerging Europe, La tin America, Refinery Processing Gains, Total, OPEC , Non-OPEC ,
Global Growth, %, OPEC Production Growth, %, non-OPEC Production Growth, %
Short-Term Supply Outlook
CHART: OPEC Leading The Way
BMI Oil Supply Forecast, to 2015
CHART: Long-Term Production Uncertainty
BMI Long-Term Supply And Demand Forecast
Global Oil Products Outlook
BMI Oil Products Price Outlook
After The Party
TABLE: OIL PRODUCT PRICE ASSUMPTIONS 2011 (US$/BBL )
INDICATORS: gasoline - Rotterdam Premium Un leaded, NY Harbour Un leaded,
Singapore Premium Un leaded, Global Average, jet/kerosene - Rotterdam , NY Harbour,
Singapore, Global Average, gasoil/diesel - Rotterdam , Singapore, Global Average,
naphtha - Rotterdam , Singapore, Global Average
CHART: Lightening Doesn’t Strike Twice
Singapore Oil Product Prices, US$/bbl
TABLE: OIL PROD UCT PRICE FORECASTS (US$/BBL )
INDICATORS: gasoline - Rotterdam Premium Un leaded, NY Harbour Un leaded,
Singapore Premium Un leaded, Global Average, jet/kerosene -Rotterdam , NY Harbour,
Singapore, Global Average, gasoil/diesel - Rotterdam , Singapore, Global Average,
naphtha - Rotterdam , Singapore, Global Average
CHART: Still Uncomfortable Levels
Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Global Macroeconomic Outlook
Global Outlook
Second Half Risks
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
INDICATORS: real gdp growth (%) - US, Eurozone, Japan, China, World,
consumer inflation (ave) - Eurozone, Japan, China. World
interest rates (eop) - Fed Funds Rate, ECB Refinancing Rate, Japan Overnight Call Rate,
exchange rates (ave) - US$/EUR, JPY/US$, CN Y/US$ oil prices (ave) - OPEC Basket (US$/bbl),
Brent Crude (US$/bbl)
TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH % CHG Y-O-Y
INDICATORS: world - Developed States, Emerging Markets, Asia ex-Japan , La tin America,
Emerging Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle Ea st & North Africa,
developed market exchange rates - Eurozone, US $/EUR , ave, Japan , Switzerland,
United Kingdom, emerging market exchange rates -China , South Korea, India, Brazil,
Mexico, Russia, Turkey, South Africa
Developed States
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST
INDICATORS: developed states aggregate growth - Eurozone, selected developed states -
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, German y, Ireland, Italy,
Japan , Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom,
United States of America
TABLE: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS
INDICATORS: Bloomberg Consensus, BMI, Bloomberg Consensus, BMI
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS AGGREGATE GROWTH
INDICATORS: emerging market aggregate growth - Latin America, Argentina , Brazil,
Mexico, Middle East, Africa, South Africa, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Emerging Asia,
China , Hong Kong, India*, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan , Thailand,
Emerging Europe, Russia, Turkey, Czech Republic, Hungary, Polan Skip to top