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Zambia's mining sector is set to continue the recovery seen over the last decade. The country had declining copper output throughout the 1990s, but a mixture of low taxes, privatisation and elevated copper prices has seen a substantial boost to investment and output. We expect the value of the mining sector to reach US $1.0bn by 2017, from US$770mn in 2011, marking an annual average growth rate of 4.5%.
Source: BMI, UN
Zambia's mining sector has been highly amenable to foreign investment since the privatisation of statecontrolled Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines (ZCCM) at the end of the 1990s. Indeed, while one of the opposition parties, the Patriotic Front, has stated that it seeks greater control of the mining sector and will increase taxes on mining companies, our Country Risk team expects the ruling party to remain in power and sustain the country's investor-friendly outlook.
Zambia's mining sector is set to continue the recovery seen over the last decade. The country had declining copper output throughout the 1990s, but a mixture of low taxes, privatisation and elevated copper prices has seen a substantial boost to investment and output. We expect the value of the mining sector to reach US $1.0bn by 2017, from US$770mn in 2011, marking an annual average growth rate of 4.5%.
Source: BMI, UN
Zambia's mining sector has been highly amenable to foreign investment since the privatisation of statecontrolled Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines (ZCCM) at the end of the 1990s. Indeed, while one of the opposition parties, the Patriotic Front, has stated that it seeks greater control of the mining sector and will increase taxes on mining companies, our Country Risk team expects the ruling party to remain in power and sustain the country's investor-friendly outlook.
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Coal: Booming Output To Support Copper Sector
Table: Zambia - Coal Projects
Potential Pitfalls Ahead
Table: Zambia - Coal Production
Copper: Zambia To Become Major Copper Producer
Risks To Outlook
Table: Zambia - Copper Production
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Africa - Recent Government Intervention
Elevated Prices Increase Rewards, But Political Risks Lurk
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings
Botswana: All Round Outperformer
South Africa: Nationalisation Fears Overblown
Zambia: Investment To Continue Despite Higher Taxes
Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom
Sierra Leone, Mali, Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire: Massive Reserves But Uncertain Outlook
DR Congo: Huge Resources, Enormous Risks
Zimbabwe: Uncertainty To Deter Investment
Market Overview
Zambia To Become Major Copper Player
Table: Zambia - Main Mine Expansion Plans
Power Shortages To Weigh On Mining Sector
Table: Zambia - Mining Industry Value And Production
Regulatory Development
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy
Table: Select Metals - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: Comparative Valuation Metrics
Company Profile
First Quantum
Table: First Quantum - Key Financial Data
Vedanta Resources
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
1. LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE IS THE GREATEST CHALLENGE
2. RESOURCE NATIONALISM WILL INCREASE
Table: Recent Government Intervention
3. CONTINUING CHINESE INVESTMENT INTO AFRICA
4. IRON ORE PRODUCTION IN WEST AFRICA TO BOOM
5. SOUTHERN AFRICA TO BECOME A KEY COAL EXPORTER
Global Industry Overview
Global Mining Outlook
1. WINNERS AND LOSERS IN 2013
Table: Recent Tax Increases
2. CHINA SLOWDOWN TO WEIGH ON MINING EQUITIES
3. CAPEX AT RISK AS PRICES HEAD LOWER
4. AFRICA TO CONTINUE ATTRACTING CHINESE ATTENTION
5. CHANGING GLOBAL COAL TRADE DYNAMICS
6. GREATER INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION
7. NEW DESTINATIONS TO ATTRACT SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENT
Methodology
Business Environment Ratings Methodology
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Coal: Booming Output To Support Copper Sector
Table: Zambia - Coal Projects
Potential Pitfalls Ahead
Table: Zambia - Coal Production
Copper: Zambia To Become Major Copper Producer
Risks To Outlook
Table: Zambia - Copper Production
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Africa - Recent Government Intervention
Elevated Prices Increase Rewards, But Political Risks Lurk
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings
Botswana: All Round Outperformer
South Africa: Nationalisation Fears Overblown
Zambia: Investment To Continue Despite Higher Taxes
Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom
Sierra Leone, Mali, Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire: Massive Reserves But Uncertain Outlook
DR Congo: Huge Resources, Enormous Risks
Zimbabwe: Uncertainty To Deter Investment
Market Overview
Zambia To Become Major Copper Player
Table: Zambia - Main Mine Expansion Plans
Power Shortages To Weigh On Mining Sector
Table: Zambia - Mining Industry Value And Production
Regulatory Development
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy
Table: Select Metals - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: Comparative Valuation Metrics
Company Profile
First Quantum
Table: First Quantum - Key Financial Data
Vedanta Resources
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
1. LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE IS THE GREATEST CHALLENGE
2. RESOURCE NATIONALISM WILL INCREASE
Table: Recent Government Intervention
3. CONTINUING CHINESE INVESTMENT INTO AFRICA
4. IRON ORE PRODUCTION IN WEST AFRICA TO BOOM
5. SOUTHERN AFRICA TO BECOME A KEY COAL EXPORTER
Global Industry Overview
Global Mining Outlook
1. WINNERS AND LOSERS IN 2013
Table: Recent Tax Increases
2. CHINA SLOWDOWN TO WEIGH ON MINING EQUITIES
3. CAPEX AT RISK AS PRICES HEAD LOWER
4. AFRICA TO CONTINUE ATTRACTING CHINESE ATTENTION
5. CHANGING GLOBAL COAL TRADE DYNAMICS
6. GREATER INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION
7. NEW DESTINATIONS TO ATTRACT SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENT
Methodology
Business Environment Ratings Methodology
