Poland Mining Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Poland's mining sector looks likely to change fundamentally over the coming years owing to the government's privatisation drive. Indeed, the cash-strapped country is in a hurry to spin-off state assets. BMI forecasts that Poland's mining sector will achieve real year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 4.4% to reach a value of PLN32.17bn (US$10.90bn) in 2011, followed by 3.6% in 2012, when we predict the total value of the mining sector will be PLN34.26bn (US$11.61bn).
Having pumped large sums of money into Poland's troubled coal sector, the government is now hoping to cash in with the sale of Jastrzebska Spolka Weglowa (JSW), Poland's largest coking coal producer.
Despite meeting resistance from striking workers in April 2011, the initial public offering (IPO) went ahead once terms were agreed in June. In total, the government is expecting to raise PLN5.8bn, with one-third of the company to be sold on the open market. However, there are a number of challenges, not least the shaky global economic picture and the poor precedent set by the lacklustre Bank Gospodarki Zywnosciowej (BGZ) privatisation earlier in 2011. The Polish treasury raised just US$113.7mn from the IPO for BGZ, which equates to about 22% of the maximum it could have raised from the offering.
The treasury managed to sell 5.2mn shares in the bank as part of the government's plans to sell its 37% stake (16mn shares).
Copper producer KGHM Polska Miedź nearly tripled its net profit for Q111, reported Steelguru, with profits for the quarter reaching US$709mn. The state-controlled miner said that its sales jumped by more than 46% to US$1.72bn at the same time as copper prices surged.
Dutch miner New World Resources (NWR) has announced that it has received approval from its board of directors to extract coal from the Debiensko mine in Poland. A feasibility study indicates that the mine has a reserve of 190mn tonnes of coal, allowing for average annual production of 2mn tonnes. NWR expects the first coal to be extracted from the mine in 2017. Total investment in the project will reach EUR411mn, which is modest compared to typical investments in mines, and appears to be a good value in our view, considering that NWR has a 50-year licence to mine the resource. NWR is also looking to mine coal at a number of additional coal seams at the site, with approval expected in 2012.
Poland's mining sector looks likely to change fundamentally over the coming years owing to the government's privatisation drive. Indeed, the cash-strapped country is in a hurry to spin-off state assets. BMI forecasts that Poland's mining sector will achieve real year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 4.4% to reach a value of PLN32.17bn (US$10.90bn) in 2011, followed by 3.6% in 2012, when we predict the total value of the mining sector will be PLN34.26bn (US$11.61bn).
Having pumped large sums of money into Poland's troubled coal sector, the government is now hoping to cash in with the sale of Jastrzebska Spolka Weglowa (JSW), Poland's largest coking coal producer.
Despite meeting resistance from striking workers in April 2011, the initial public offering (IPO) went ahead once terms were agreed in June. In total, the government is expecting to raise PLN5.8bn, with one-third of the company to be sold on the open market. However, there are a number of challenges, not least the shaky global economic picture and the poor precedent set by the lacklustre Bank Gospodarki Zywnosciowej (BGZ) privatisation earlier in 2011. The Polish treasury raised just US$113.7mn from the IPO for BGZ, which equates to about 22% of the maximum it could have raised from the offering.
The treasury managed to sell 5.2mn shares in the bank as part of the government's plans to sell its 37% stake (16mn shares).
Copper producer KGHM Polska Miedź nearly tripled its net profit for Q111, reported Steelguru, with profits for the quarter reaching US$709mn. The state-controlled miner said that its sales jumped by more than 46% to US$1.72bn at the same time as copper prices surged.
Dutch miner New World Resources (NWR) has announced that it has received approval from its board of directors to extract coal from the Debiensko mine in Poland. A feasibility study indicates that the mine has a reserve of 190mn tonnes of coal, allowing for average annual production of 2mn tonnes. NWR expects the first coal to be extracted from the mine in 2017. Total investment in the project will reach EUR411mn, which is modest compared to typical investments in mines, and appears to be a good value in our view, considering that NWR has a 50-year licence to mine the resource. NWR is also looking to mine coal at a number of additional coal seams at the site, with approval expected in 2012.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Poland Political SWOT
Poland Economic SWOT
Poland Business Environment SWOT
Global Mining Outlook
Table: Recent Tax Increases
Table: Largest Coal Projects
Table: Frontier Mining Projects
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Mines In Poland
Environmental Protection
Business Environment
Table: Europe Mining Business Environment Ratings
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Regional Outlook
Long-Term Political Outlook
Industry Forecast
Coal
Table: Poland's Coal Production, 2008-2015
Copper
Table: Poland's Copper Production, 2008-2015
Zinc
Table: Poland's Zinc Production, 2008-2015
Regulatory Development
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
KGHM Polska Miedź SA
Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa SA
Kompania Węglowa
Commodity Strategy – Metals Update
Copper
Aluminium
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% y-o-y)
Table: Selected Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Table: Selected Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% y-o-y)
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% y-o-y)
Consensus
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y)
Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components Skip to top