Sudan Defence and Security Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
There has been slow progress in relations between the governments of Juba and Khartoum since our last update with unstable relations between the two states exacerbated by internal conflicts driven by rebel groups.
For Sudan, the emergence of a new rebel alliance – led by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) – which the explicit aim of overthrowing al-Bashir’s government in Khartoum will ensure that Darfur remains a tinderbox over the coming year. With regional instability still widespread, there are increasing fears among the international audience that Sudan is increasingly vulnerable to revolution. The July 2011 peace treaty signed in Doha, although being enacted through the establishment of the Darfur Regional Authority (DRA), has been undermined by the new alliance, and the death of JEM leader Ibrahim Khalil in December may yet mark an increase in violence.
Against the Sudanese macro-economic backdrop having lost many of the oil fields essential to the country’s economy in the secession of South Sudan, the risks to BMI’s outlook are heavily weighted to the downside.
Secession, although an overall success, has not been smooth with many disputes – such as over the region of Abyei – becoming increasingly worrying to the international community. In light of the events that changed the Middle East and North Africa’s political landscape in 2011, it is unsurprising for the governments of both countries to be particularly aware of the threat posed by revolution. Both states are mutually suspicious of aid offered to enemy rebels, with the death of the JEM leader alleged to have occurred while trying to lead forces across the border into South Sudan and to a newly established training base.
South Sudan’s primary security risk, in addition to the ongoing Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) disputes with Khartoum, is in the region of Jonglei which saw increasing ethnic violence between rival tribes in the final weeks of 2011, sparking UN intervention.
With the composite risks to immediate security and stability, Sudan is likely to become a key international topic in 2012. A number of areas of Sudan’s security industry must still be addressed if a legitimate society is to emerge in South Sudan. In such a fragile region, borders must be clearly delineated, but the import of weapons and equipment to the region should also be strictly monitored. In the long term, regional tensions must be eased in order to create a stable society, and as such, the long term social impact of exporting arms known to be for use in Darfur should be made known. Only with security will Sudan, and the newly-created Republic of South Sudan, be able to make social and economic progress.
There has been slow progress in relations between the governments of Juba and Khartoum since our last update with unstable relations between the two states exacerbated by internal conflicts driven by rebel groups.
For Sudan, the emergence of a new rebel alliance – led by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) – which the explicit aim of overthrowing al-Bashir’s government in Khartoum will ensure that Darfur remains a tinderbox over the coming year. With regional instability still widespread, there are increasing fears among the international audience that Sudan is increasingly vulnerable to revolution. The July 2011 peace treaty signed in Doha, although being enacted through the establishment of the Darfur Regional Authority (DRA), has been undermined by the new alliance, and the death of JEM leader Ibrahim Khalil in December may yet mark an increase in violence.
Against the Sudanese macro-economic backdrop having lost many of the oil fields essential to the country’s economy in the secession of South Sudan, the risks to BMI’s outlook are heavily weighted to the downside.
Secession, although an overall success, has not been smooth with many disputes – such as over the region of Abyei – becoming increasingly worrying to the international community. In light of the events that changed the Middle East and North Africa’s political landscape in 2011, it is unsurprising for the governments of both countries to be particularly aware of the threat posed by revolution. Both states are mutually suspicious of aid offered to enemy rebels, with the death of the JEM leader alleged to have occurred while trying to lead forces across the border into South Sudan and to a newly established training base.
South Sudan’s primary security risk, in addition to the ongoing Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) disputes with Khartoum, is in the region of Jonglei which saw increasing ethnic violence between rival tribes in the final weeks of 2011, sparking UN intervention.
With the composite risks to immediate security and stability, Sudan is likely to become a key international topic in 2012. A number of areas of Sudan’s security industry must still be addressed if a legitimate society is to emerge in South Sudan. In such a fragile region, borders must be clearly delineated, but the import of weapons and equipment to the region should also be strictly monitored. In the long term, regional tensions must be eased in order to create a stable society, and as such, the long term social impact of exporting arms known to be for use in Darfur should be made known. Only with security will Sudan, and the newly-created Republic of South Sudan, be able to make social and economic progress.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Sudan Political SWOT
Sudan Economic SWOT
Sudan Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Latin America
Western Europe
Central, Eastern And South Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East And North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia
Wild Cards To Watch
Security Risk Analysis
Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Foreign Policy
Security Overview
Internal Security Overview
Conflict In Darfur
Justice And Equality Movement
North-South Civil War
Security Threat In South Sudan
External Security Situation
Sudan And Uganda
Relationship With Washington
Sudan And Ethiopia
Sudan And Chad: From Enemies To Friends
South Sudan And The East Africa Community
Sudan And Israel
Armed Forces
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Armed Forces, 2001-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Defence Expenditure
Table: Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Arms Trade
Table: Sudan’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Sudan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources Skip to top