Poland Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI’s Q3 Poland Defence and Security Report examines the country’s strategic position in Europe and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future. In addition, the report examines the trends witnessed in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report’s general conclusion is that while some restraints may exist vis-à-vis Polish defence procurement, broadly speaking the country expects to continue the trend of defence modernisation it commenced at the end of the Cold War, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
In the two decades since the end of the Cold War, and the collapse of both the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union, the country has taken an increasingly active position in international military affairs. With the country planning to withdraw its combat troops from Afghanistan in the 2014/15 timeframe in line with NATO’s overall goals of ending its military presence there, Poland is now contemplating its military posture and doctrine beyond current operations and expects to play an active role in future international military operations at the United Nations, European Union and NATO level, particularly in terms of Special Forces provision which is acknowledged as being one of the country’s core competencies.
The active role that Poland is playing in out-of-area operations is prompting its Government to invest in the capabilities that the country will require in the future: Most notably, this includes the acquisition of new medium-lift military helicopters to equip all three Polish services. Such aircraft are key force multipliers with a high degree of versatility given their available space and lift capacity. A similar investment into logistics is expected via the acquisition of a large number of new trucks to replace legacy vehicles currently in service with the Army.
Poland has had a long-standing requirement for a new lead-in jet trainer aircraft following the country’s Lockheed Martin F-16 multirole combat aircraft entry into service. The new aircraft will be required to simulate air-to-air and air-to-ground operations. The Polish air force has commenced the upgrade of its ground-based air defences, and plans to perform a parallel procurement of new short-range air defence systems. Similarly, the navy is widely expected to soon procure new conventional submarines to replace Russian origin and Norwegian boats currently in service.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
BMI’s Q3 Poland Defence and Security Report examines the country’s strategic position in Europe and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future. In addition, the report examines the trends witnessed in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report’s general conclusion is that while some restraints may exist vis-à-vis Polish defence procurement, broadly speaking the country expects to continue the trend of defence modernisation it commenced at the end of the Cold War, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
In the two decades since the end of the Cold War, and the collapse of both the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union, the country has taken an increasingly active position in international military affairs. With the country planning to withdraw its combat troops from Afghanistan in the 2014/15 timeframe in line with NATO’s overall goals of ending its military presence there, Poland is now contemplating its military posture and doctrine beyond current operations and expects to play an active role in future international military operations at the United Nations, European Union and NATO level, particularly in terms of Special Forces provision which is acknowledged as being one of the country’s core competencies.
The active role that Poland is playing in out-of-area operations is prompting its Government to invest in the capabilities that the country will require in the future: Most notably, this includes the acquisition of new medium-lift military helicopters to equip all three Polish services. Such aircraft are key force multipliers with a high degree of versatility given their available space and lift capacity. A similar investment into logistics is expected via the acquisition of a large number of new trucks to replace legacy vehicles currently in service with the Army.
Poland has had a long-standing requirement for a new lead-in jet trainer aircraft following the country’s Lockheed Martin F-16 multirole combat aircraft entry into service. The new aircraft will be required to simulate air-to-air and air-to-ground operations. The Polish air force has commenced the upgrade of its ground-based air defences, and plans to perform a parallel procurement of new short-range air defence systems. Similarly, the navy is widely expected to soon procure new conventional submarines to replace Russian origin and Norwegian boats currently in service.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI has added a discussion regarding the air force’s procurement of a new lead-in jet trainer.
- BMI has written summary of Poland’s options as regards its planned purchase of a new mediumlift helicopter.
- A discussion is also included in the report examining the navy’s modernisation efforts vis-à-vis new submarines.
- In addition, BMI’s report includes a summary of the country’s options pertaining to the purchase of new trucks for its land forces.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Poland Security SWOT
Poland Defence Industry SWOT
Poland Political SWOT
Poland Economic SWOT
Poland Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113
Wild Cards To Watch
Europe Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Europe In A Global Context
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
What If The Eurozone Collapses? Political Risks Assessed
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Numerous Challenges In 2012
Foreign Policy
Rising Warsaw-Moscow Strains In 2012
Long-Term Political Outlook
A Maturing Regional Power
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Defence Strategy
International Deployments
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Poland’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Poland’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Poland’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Poland’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Poland’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Poland’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Poland’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Far From Recession In 2012
Table: Poland – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2008-2016
Company Profiles
Bumar
HSW
WSK PZL Mielec
WSK PZL Rzeszow
Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources Skip to top