Poland Metals Report Q3 2012

Date: July 10, 2012
Pages: 52
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The Poland Metals Report examines the long-term potential for growth in steelmaking while flagging short-term concerns about the impact of the eurozone crisis on export performance both in steel products and manufactured goods utilising domestic metals production.

The report examines how producers are minimising investment risk and also explores the impact of the increasingly precarious looking external macroeconomic environment on the Polish consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short-term.

In the first four months of 2012, Polish crude steel output grew 6.4% y-o-y to 3.04mn tonnes (mnt), which continued the trend seen in 2010 and 2011 when production rose 12.3% and 9.8% respectively.

Growth rates are falling as domestic consumption and fixed investment failed to make up for the expected shortfall in exports, which were still below 2008 levels in 2011. However, the Polish steel industry remains an outperformer in Europe with the strongest growth rate in the EU. The medium-term revival of the Polish steel industry is likely to be led primarily by domestic consumption, with export markets of domestic steel producers set to remain in the doldrums.

Polish copper refiner KGHM has operated well beyond nameplate capacities in recent years. In 2011, KGHM’s total electrolytic copper production was up 4.4% y-o-y to 571,000 tonnes, although it experienced a 5% decline in Q112 that it believes will be a temporary blip. However, in Q112 KGHM reported 5% decline in copper output to 134,000 tonnes.

Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts/views:
  • Poland’s economic growth rate is likely to decline as the year progresses due to the exposure of Polish industry to the eurozone crisis. As such, we retain our crude steel production forecast of 2.0% growth to 8.97mnt. This means that output will fail to return to levels seen before the 2008 financial crisis, when output declined to 8.5% and 26.7% in 2008 and 2009 respectively.
  • Poland maintained a refined lead output of 112,000 tonnes in 2011, (including recycling). This is up 2% y-o-y and output is set to rise to 120,000 tonnes by 2016, stimulated by the domestic market. Lead consumption should grow 17% to reach 117,000 tonnes by 2016.
  • BMI does not envisage significant copper output growth over the forecast period due to capacity constraints with output unlikely to move much beyond 2011 levels. While copper ore exports will increase, refined copper exports will decline by around 8% in total over 2012-16 reaching around 307,000 tonnes by 2016.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Poland Business Environment SWOT
Europe Metals Overview
Industry Forecasts
  Table: Poland’s Steel Industry Forecasts (’000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Polish Steel Industry, 2003-2011 (’000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Poland’s Refined Copper Consumption & Production Forecasts (mn tonnes)
  Table: Poland’s Refined Lead Consumption & Production Forecasts (mn tonnes)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Investment Slowdown To Drag On Growth
Commodities Forecast
  Table: BMI Steel Forecasts
  Table: Steel Price Data, (US$/TONNE)
Commodity Strategy – Monthly Metals Update
  Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Polish Aluminium Market, 2008-2016
Company Profiles
  Table: ArcelorMittal – Key Financial Data, 2005-2011
CMC Zawiercie SA
BMI Global Assumptions
  Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016
Developed States
  Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013
Emerging Markets
  Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013
  Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 And 2013
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Cross Checks

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