Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Although we are optimistic about Poland's economic growth prospects, expecting an expansion of 2.6% in 2013 and expect steady headline GDP expansion thereafter, we are more cautious regarding metal consumption and production prospects. Key metal consuming segments such as autos and particularly construction will underperform.
Looking at the longer term, we expect growth in Poland as an autos export hub to remain steady, though construction activity will be underwhelming. Production of steel, copper and lead will grow, but at a slower rate than demand. Investment into production facilities will be restrained by several factors including stagnant domestic mine production, higher taxes and low metal prices.
Although we are optimistic about Poland's economic growth prospects, expecting an expansion of 2.6% in 2013 and expect steady headline GDP expansion thereafter, we are more cautious regarding metal consumption and production prospects. Key metal consuming segments such as autos and particularly construction will underperform.
Looking at the longer term, we expect growth in Poland as an autos export hub to remain steady, though construction activity will be underwhelming. Production of steel, copper and lead will grow, but at a slower rate than demand. Investment into production facilities will be restrained by several factors including stagnant domestic mine production, higher taxes and low metal prices.
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Metals
Industry Forecast
Steel: Waiting On An Autos Sector Recovery
Table: Poland - Steel Historic Data & Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Poland - Steel Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Copper: Surplus To Stagnate
Table: Poland - Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Lead: Slow Recovery Ahead
Table: Poland - Refined Lead Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Commodities Forecast
Steel Price Forecast
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Table: Steel Forecast
Commodities Forecast
Iron Ore: Holding Up, For Now
Steel: Bleak Outlook
Aluminium: Major Gains Over
Copper: Global Stockpiles Pose Downside Risk
Lead: Heading Lower
Nickel: No Return To 2012 Highs
Tin: Continued Outperformance
Zinc: Bounce Is Coming To An End
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: Poland - Largest Listed Metals Producers
Company Profile
ArcelorMittal
Table: Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
KGHM
Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data
Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Cross Checks
SWOT
Metals
Industry Forecast
Steel: Waiting On An Autos Sector Recovery
Table: Poland - Steel Historic Data & Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Poland - Steel Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Copper: Surplus To Stagnate
Table: Poland - Refined Copper Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Lead: Slow Recovery Ahead
Table: Poland - Refined Lead Production, Consumption & Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Commodities Forecast
Steel Price Forecast
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
Table: Steel Forecast
Commodities Forecast
Iron Ore: Holding Up, For Now
Steel: Bleak Outlook
Aluminium: Major Gains Over
Copper: Global Stockpiles Pose Downside Risk
Lead: Heading Lower
Nickel: No Return To 2012 Highs
Tin: Continued Outperformance
Zinc: Bounce Is Coming To An End
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: Poland - Largest Listed Metals Producers
Company Profile
ArcelorMittal
Table: Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
KGHM
Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data
Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Cross Checks
