Indonesia Autos Report Q4 2011
A recovery in the supply chain for Japanese carmakers, coupled with sustained growth in private consumption, resulted in record vehicle sales in Indonesia for the month of July 2011. Moreover, as orders secured during the Indonesia International Motor Show will not be counted until deliveries are made over the coming months, we expect the sales boost to continue for at least the next two months. So far this year, total sales of 506,079 units keep the sector on track to achieve a new record for the country, although BMI's sales forecast has been revised down slightly to growth of 12% in 2011 as sales in the latter months of the year are often slower.
Although our passenger car sales forecast has been lowered slightly to 10% this year, as we recognise July was a month of playing catch up after a period of disruption and therefore these levels may not be sustainable, we are still expect average annual growth of 7-8% in the car segment over our five-year forecast period. This will be largely fuelled by strength in private consumption, which BMI's Asia team expects to outperform the region, at least up to 2012.
We do still expect the commercial vehicle segment to outperform in growth terms, however, and more markedly from 2012 onwards, as infrastructure spending picks up linked to the government's publicprivate partnership scheme. While building projects should generate demand for heavy trucks, an upgrade to the country's transport infrastructure should also provide a boost for bus deliveries, which we believe will result in average annual growth of 10% to 2015.
Nevertheless, investment in the car segment has been stepped up. Toyota Motor has announced investment of US$200mn to expand the annual production capacity of its plant Karawang, Indonesia, in its first production investment since the earthquake and tsunami, which brought its operations in Japan to a standstill. The project, which will raise the plant's output to 140,000 units per year by 2013, will not only reduce Toyota's dependence on Japan as a production base, but also tap into a vehicle market expected to rival that of neighbouring Thailand over BMI's five-year forecast period. The Indonesian government is also prepared to offer Japanese carmaker Suzuki Motor a package of incentives if it goes through with a plan to invest US$800mn in local production, suggesting that the government's attitude towards foreign investment is as much of a draw to carmakers as the market's growth potential.
Although our passenger car sales forecast has been lowered slightly to 10% this year, as we recognise July was a month of playing catch up after a period of disruption and therefore these levels may not be sustainable, we are still expect average annual growth of 7-8% in the car segment over our five-year forecast period. This will be largely fuelled by strength in private consumption, which BMI's Asia team expects to outperform the region, at least up to 2012.
We do still expect the commercial vehicle segment to outperform in growth terms, however, and more markedly from 2012 onwards, as infrastructure spending picks up linked to the government's publicprivate partnership scheme. While building projects should generate demand for heavy trucks, an upgrade to the country's transport infrastructure should also provide a boost for bus deliveries, which we believe will result in average annual growth of 10% to 2015.
Nevertheless, investment in the car segment has been stepped up. Toyota Motor has announced investment of US$200mn to expand the annual production capacity of its plant Karawang, Indonesia, in its first production investment since the earthquake and tsunami, which brought its operations in Japan to a standstill. The project, which will raise the plant's output to 140,000 units per year by 2013, will not only reduce Toyota's dependence on Japan as a production base, but also tap into a vehicle market expected to rival that of neighbouring Thailand over BMI's five-year forecast period. The Indonesian government is also prepared to offer Japanese carmaker Suzuki Motor a package of incentives if it goes through with a plan to invest US$800mn in local production, suggesting that the government's attitude towards foreign investment is as much of a draw to carmakers as the market's growth potential.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Indonesia Auto Industry SWOT
Indonesia Political SWOT
Indonesia Economic SWOT
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Industry
Asia Pacific Regional Overview
Supplier View Plays Out As Hyundai Mobis Wins US$233mn Japanese Order
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Industry Forecast Scenario
Production and Sales - Indonesia
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Trade
Indonesia Automotive Market - Historical Data And Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Indonesia: Top 10 Vehicle Sales By Brand
Industry Developments
Finance
Passenger Vehicles – Forecast & Analysis
Segment Forecast
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Company Developments
Premium Segment
Commercial Vehicle – Forecast & Analysis
Segment Forecast
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Segment Developments
Motorcycles – Forecast & Analysis
Segment Forecast
Table: Indonesia Automotive Market: Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Company Monitor
BMI Favourites Feature In Nissan ASEAN Strategy
Stealing A March
The Rising Star
EMs Key To Growth
Company Profiles
Toyota Astra Motor (TAM)
Suzuki Indomobil Motor
Country Snapshot: Indonesia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 (IDR)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
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