Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2014

Date: March 19, 2014
Pages: 105
Price:
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: Business Monitor International
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: U433F28EC15EN
Leaflet:

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Conventional gas deposits would support Uzbekistan's hydrocarbons industry, though we project a continued decline in oil production. Consumption growth in both oil and gas will be curtailed by the diversion of gas to external markets to meet its export obligations, a failure to meet its domestic refined products demand and restrictions on fuel imports. The main trends and developments in Uzbekistan's oil and gas sector are:
  • We have forecast a very gradual decline in oil reserves, with 481.5mn barrels (bbl) forecast to remain by 2023, down from the EIA's forecast of 594.0mn bbl for 2013. The outlook is slightly better for gas. Some discoveries and exploration activity would keep gas reserves stagnant at about 1.8trn cubic metres (tcm) through to 2018, though Uzbekistan would need to speed up the rate of exploration and discovery should it wish to prevent a fall in gas reserves to about 1.72tcm by 2023.
  • Uzbekistan has an estimated 340bn bbl of oil shale deposits and Uzbekneftegaz has established a US $600mn joint venture (JV) project that will convert the oil shale into crude oil to be processed into petroleum products. It has started first drilling at the Sangruntau deposit in March 2013, and is aiming to produce 2mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of liquids from oil shale (40,164 barrels per day, or b/d) between 2014 and 2015 and 8mn tpa (160,656b/d) by 2018 from the Sangrantau deposit alone. It has also started studying reserve potential at areas in the Kyzylkum desert and Baisun Mountains; however, we have not factored this in our forecast until the success of its first development is proven.
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Oil And Gas Reserves
  Table: Uzbekistan's Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
  Table: Uzbekistan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data: Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
Oil Supply And Demand
  Table: Uzbekistan Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
  Table: Uzbekistan Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
Refining And Oil Products Trade
  Table: Uzbekistan Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
  Table: Uzbekistan Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
Gas Supply And Demand
  Table: Uzbekistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
  Table: Uzbekistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
East Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
Russia: Large Resource Base But Limited Opportunities
Regional Minnows Breaking In
  Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
  Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Uzbekistan - Risk/Reward Ratings
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating - Overview
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating - Rewards
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating - Risks
Uzbekistan Downstream Rating - Overview
Market Overview
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Licensing/Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
  Table: Refineries In Uzbekistan
Oil Shale Plant
Oil Pipelines
Gas Processing Plants
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Gas Filling Stations
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
  Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
  Table: Key Upstream Players
  Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Uzbekneftegaz
Lukoil
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
A Mutually Dependent Relationship
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
South Stream Looking Weak
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
Shale Gas Showdown
Global Industry Overview
Appendix
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
  Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
  Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
  Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
  Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
  Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
  Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
  Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
  Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
  Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
  Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
  Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
  Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
Glossary
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
  Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Weighting

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