Uzbekistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The US saw key developments in Q3 with its downgrade by S&P for US debt and the lifting of the debt ceiling by the US government. While the congressional committee must continue to find spending cuts, in the worst case scenario the US could reach the new debt ceiling in January 2012. BMI’s 2012 real GDP growth forecast has recently been downgraded, to 2.0% from 2.4%. Our analysis suggests that the US is dangerously close to a recession. This change in perception for the economic outlook may result in a temporary pause in the recovery of the property sector. Concerns have arisen among real estate players (and the public) about Washington’s success so far in addressing fiscal issues. This has resulted in declining confidence in any substantial commercial recovery, according to a survey by the Real Estate Roundtable.
Despite the well publicised economic uncertainty surrounding the US, there has been a surprising level of optimism in the commercial real estate market with regard to new developments, purchases and investments. The country seems to be remaining positive in the face of a potentially subdued market, which could help to bolster real estate in the event of any further decline in the economy.
Key Opportunities In The Real Estate Market
The US saw key developments in Q3 with its downgrade by S&P for US debt and the lifting of the debt ceiling by the US government. While the congressional committee must continue to find spending cuts, in the worst case scenario the US could reach the new debt ceiling in January 2012. BMI’s 2012 real GDP growth forecast has recently been downgraded, to 2.0% from 2.4%. Our analysis suggests that the US is dangerously close to a recession. This change in perception for the economic outlook may result in a temporary pause in the recovery of the property sector. Concerns have arisen among real estate players (and the public) about Washington’s success so far in addressing fiscal issues. This has resulted in declining confidence in any substantial commercial recovery, according to a survey by the Real Estate Roundtable.
Despite the well publicised economic uncertainty surrounding the US, there has been a surprising level of optimism in the commercial real estate market with regard to new developments, purchases and investments. The country seems to be remaining positive in the face of a potentially subdued market, which could help to bolster real estate in the event of any further decline in the economy.
Key Opportunities In The Real Estate Market
- After a better-than-expected Black Friday period for retailers, the holiday retail season is expected to be extremely positive and is likely to cushion retail real estate activity in the short term.
- Prime office markets seem to be holding up well, in spite of the economic uncertainty. Recent deals involving desirable office space have highlighted that this side of the market could help to boost areas of the office sub-sector which may fare less well in the coming months.
- A number of real estate developers have recently begun targeting overseas investors, in the hope that a fresh wave of commercial investment could result from international companies.
- It appears that strong tourism levels continue to buoy real estate activity in that area, with a number of new hotel projects announced in recent months.
- If the economic recovery does stall, the progress currently occurring in the property sector will slow. Impediments to economic recovery include high energy and commodity prices, unemployment, the level of debt in the US and the eurozone, and the US budget deficit.
- Cushman & Wakefield reported a slowing in the recovery of the office market in Q311, meaning that optimism in the sector could be short-lived.
Contents
SWOT AnalysisUzbekistan Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 000b/d, 2009-2016
Global Oil Production, 000b/d, 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: CEE Refining Capacity, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: CEE LNG Gas Exports (bcm)
Uzbekistan Energy Market Overview
Table Uzbekistan Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Uzbekistan Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries in Uzbekistan
Oil Pipelines
GTL Plants
Gas Processing Plants
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Central Eastern Europe Region
Regional Risk/Rewards Ratings
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating
Regional Upstream Risks/Rewards
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating – Overview
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating – Rewards
Uzbekistan Upstream Rating – Risks
Regional Downstream Risks/Rewards
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating
Uzbekistan Downstream Rating – Overview
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Overview/State Role
Licensing/Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
China
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Russia
EU
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Uzbekneftegaz
Lukoil
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) – Summary
Petronas – Summary
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) – Summary
Tethys Petroleum – Summary
Sasol – Summary
Oil Exploration Operations Company – Summary
Zeromax – Summary
PetroVietnam – Summary
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption Long Term Forecasts (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: CEE Refining Capacity Long Term Forecasts (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, (b/d)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources Skip to top