United Arab Emirates Power Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Clean coal, nuclear and renewables all form part of the long-term energy plan, although it would be a surprise to see the UAE having operational reactors during the current decade. The emirates appreciate the need to cap oil and gas use in power generation, so new clean coal technology is to be used over the medium term. There is growing momentum behind the use of renewables, with international backing being sought for ambitious programmes.
It has been estimated that the UAE’s electricity sector will require at least US$8bn in investment over the next six to eight years in order to meet growing demand, and the government has plans to expand installed capacity by more than 50% during the current decade.
Key trends and recent developments in the UAE electricity market include: During the 2011-2021 period, the UAE’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 5.03%, reaching 138.5TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 4.67% gain in gas-fired and a 0.90% rise in oil-fired generation, accompanied by rapid growth in renewables-based electricity supply, albeit from a very low base. It is assumed that nuclear generation will be available from 2021.
The UAE has reconfirmed its renewable energy aspirations, revealing that the government aims to boost investment in clean energy technology over the next five years and attract AED367bn (US$100bn) of investment in alternative and sustainable energy projects by 2020.
Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 3.3%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.8% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 7.9mn to 9.3mn during the 2011-2021 period, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 73.4TWh to 96.3TWh by 2016, rising further to 119.6TWh by 2021. During the 2011-2016 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 5.44%, but slowing later in the decade to an average 4.71% in 2016-2021.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which at least matches the underlying demand trend, the UAE is likely to create a growing power supply surplus later in the decade as new capacity kicks in – particularly if the nuclear option is used. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from around 12.2% will help improve the market. The theoretical net export capability by 2021 is put at 3.4TWh.
BMI View: Clean coal, nuclear and renewables all form part of the long-term energy plan, although it would be a surprise to see the UAE having operational reactors during the current decade. The emirates appreciate the need to cap oil and gas use in power generation, so new clean coal technology is to be used over the medium term. There is growing momentum behind the use of renewables, with international backing being sought for ambitious programmes.
It has been estimated that the UAE’s electricity sector will require at least US$8bn in investment over the next six to eight years in order to meet growing demand, and the government has plans to expand installed capacity by more than 50% during the current decade.
Key trends and recent developments in the UAE electricity market include: During the 2011-2021 period, the UAE’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 5.03%, reaching 138.5TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 4.67% gain in gas-fired and a 0.90% rise in oil-fired generation, accompanied by rapid growth in renewables-based electricity supply, albeit from a very low base. It is assumed that nuclear generation will be available from 2021.
The UAE has reconfirmed its renewable energy aspirations, revealing that the government aims to boost investment in clean energy technology over the next five years and attract AED367bn (US$100bn) of investment in alternative and sustainable energy projects by 2020.
Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 3.3%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.8% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 7.9mn to 9.3mn during the 2011-2021 period, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 73.4TWh to 96.3TWh by 2016, rising further to 119.6TWh by 2021. During the 2011-2016 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 5.44%, but slowing later in the decade to an average 4.71% in 2016-2021.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which at least matches the underlying demand trend, the UAE is likely to create a growing power supply surplus later in the decade as new capacity kicks in – particularly if the nuclear option is used. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from around 12.2% will help improve the market. The theoretical net export capability by 2021 is put at 3.4TWh.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
UAE Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
UAE Snapshot (Macro)
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
UAE Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
Table: UAE Total Generation Data
Table: UAE Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: UAE Electricity Generating Capacity Data
Table: UAE Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Thermal
Nuclear
Renewables
Electricity Consumption
Table: UAE Total Consumption Data
Table: UAE Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: UAE Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: UAE Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: UAE Trade Data And Forecasts
Table: UAE Trade Data And Forecasts
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation and Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Key Projects Database
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects -- Energy & Utilities
Business Environment
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Mea Power Risk/Return Ratings
UAE Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
Dubai Electricity And Water Authority
ADWEA
TAQA
Company Monitor
TAQA
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources Skip to top