Ukraine Power Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Ukraine’s dependence on Russia for gas is a problem, as it exposes the country to import volatility and ongoing price disputes – exacerbated by the government’s power price subsidies. Domestic sources cannot fuel all gas-fired generation, so Ukraine wishes to boost nuclear and renewables capacity. Investment is unlikely to reach the required level while sales prices for power are low, although the IMF is forcing through tariff increases.
The Ukrainian government has stated that it aims to produce up to 30% of its electrical energy from renewable sources – specifically sun and wind – by the year 2015. This is an ambitious target and, although new solar sites are coming into play, it is likely that nuclear will have to take up the slack if the country is to reduce dependency on gas-fired plants.
Key trends and recent developments in the Ukrainian electricity market include:
BMI View: Ukraine’s dependence on Russia for gas is a problem, as it exposes the country to import volatility and ongoing price disputes – exacerbated by the government’s power price subsidies. Domestic sources cannot fuel all gas-fired generation, so Ukraine wishes to boost nuclear and renewables capacity. Investment is unlikely to reach the required level while sales prices for power are low, although the IMF is forcing through tariff increases.
The Ukrainian government has stated that it aims to produce up to 30% of its electrical energy from renewable sources – specifically sun and wind – by the year 2015. This is an ambitious target and, although new solar sites are coming into play, it is likely that nuclear will have to take up the slack if the country is to reduce dependency on gas-fired plants.
Key trends and recent developments in the Ukrainian electricity market include:
- During the period 2011-2016, Ukraine’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 2.18%, reaching 194.6 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 3.80% gain in gas-fired generation and a 6.19% annual rise in the use of renewables, offsetting a 4.27% average decline in oil-fired electricity supply.
- Following an estimated 4.01% increase in real GDP in 2011 BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.42% between 2011 and 2016. The population is expected to fall slightly from the current level of 45.5mn during the period, but net power consumption looks set to increase from 148.8TWh to 167.0TWh in 2016, rising further to at least 184.0TWh by 2021. During the period 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.38%, but this will slow somewhat later in the decade to average 2.35% in 2016-2021.
- Ukraine has a much more aggressive view of power consumption trends than BMI. An increase in electricity demand to 307TWh by 2020 and to 420TWh by 2030 is envisaged by the state, and government policy is to continue supplying half of this from nuclear power. This will require 29.5GW of nuclear capacity in 2030, up from 13.2GW at present. The scale of the increase seems to be at odds with likely economic growth and population needs. Furthermore, the cost of the capacity expansion programme is likely to be beyond Ukraine’s capabilities.
- Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, near-term growth of which fails to match the underlying demand trend, Ukraine’s power supply surplus of around 5.1TWh could shrink over the medium term, but could increase appreciably over the longer term. An unchanged percentage of transmission and distribution losses – at more than 12% – works against higher exports. The theoretical net export potential by 2016 is put at 3.5TWh, which could have tripled by 2021.
Contents
SWOT AnalysisUkraine Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Slower Growth In Developed Markets To Accentuate Differences
Regional Industry Overview
Steady But Moderate Growth In CEE, Turkey Under Scrutiny
Industry Forecast Scenario
Ukraine Snapshot (Macro)
Table: Ukraine Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Table: Ukraine Snapshot: Power Sector
Ukraine Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
Table: Ukraine – Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Table: Ukraine – Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021
Table: Ukraine – Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Ukraine – Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021
Electricity Consumption
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Ukraine Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 2008-2016
Table: Ukraine Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts 2013-2021
Table: Ukraine Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Ukraine Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Key Projects Database
Table: Ukraine – Key Projects Power Plants & transmission grids
Business Environment
CEE Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Ukraine Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
Ukrenergo
AES
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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