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BMI View: BMI’s power service now focuses chiefly on thermal sources, hydropower and nuclear electricity, while developments pertinent to the green segment will be discussed in-depth in our renewables service. That said, we will continue to provide a detailed overview of the dynamics affecting the power sector. Sudan's power sector is benefiting from large-scale investment in new infrastructure.
China has emerged as one of the biggest players, having already played a major role in developing Sudan's hydroelectric power facilities. In addition, there is growing interest from foreign investors with regards to the potential development of thermal and solar power. A diversified approach to power infrastructure development could help Sudan extend the availability of energy to rural and peripheral regions. Since gaining political independence in January 2011, one of South Sudan’s key concerns has been developing its own power generation, transmission and distribution capabilities. Given China's interest in South Sudan's oil resources, BMI expects China to become a major player in the development of South Sudan's energy sector.
From 2012 to 2021, Sudan's overall power generation is expected to increase at an annual average rate of 5.8% to reach 12.7TWh. Contributing to this growth will be a 2.1% annual average increase in oil-fired power generation. Hydropower generation is expected to increase by an average of 8.2% annually over the period.
The key trends and developments in the country’s power sector are:
BMI View: BMI’s power service now focuses chiefly on thermal sources, hydropower and nuclear electricity, while developments pertinent to the green segment will be discussed in-depth in our renewables service. That said, we will continue to provide a detailed overview of the dynamics affecting the power sector. Sudan's power sector is benefiting from large-scale investment in new infrastructure.
China has emerged as one of the biggest players, having already played a major role in developing Sudan's hydroelectric power facilities. In addition, there is growing interest from foreign investors with regards to the potential development of thermal and solar power. A diversified approach to power infrastructure development could help Sudan extend the availability of energy to rural and peripheral regions. Since gaining political independence in January 2011, one of South Sudan’s key concerns has been developing its own power generation, transmission and distribution capabilities. Given China's interest in South Sudan's oil resources, BMI expects China to become a major player in the development of South Sudan's energy sector.
From 2012 to 2021, Sudan's overall power generation is expected to increase at an annual average rate of 5.8% to reach 12.7TWh. Contributing to this growth will be a 2.1% annual average increase in oil-fired power generation. Hydropower generation is expected to increase by an average of 8.2% annually over the period.
The key trends and developments in the country’s power sector are:
- Sudan has seen the introduction of new energy transmission infrastructure alongside major power generation projects. In addition to extending its national electricity transmission and distribution capabilities, there is the potential for Sudan to engage in cooperative electricity transmission projects with neighbours such as Ethiopia.
- Despite our prediction that Sudan will steadily expand its power output over our 10-year forecast period, we expect all of this increased power generation to be used to support rising domestic demand. We do not expect Sudan to export significant quantities of power and do not have a forecast for exports. However, we do predict that a gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from an anticipated 30.5% in 2012 will help balance the market.
- The escalation of the military conflict between Sudan and South Sudan could heighten political risk, and could impact the country’s total power consumption.
- South Sudan’s lack of infrastructure, added to a legal framework that is at best embryonic, has so far discouraged potential investors. Despite big promises made by China, South Sudan has only very small-scale investment, mainly from east Africa.
SWOT Analysis
Sudan & South Sudan Power SWOT
Regional Industry Overview
MEA Power: Strong Fundamentals Support Sanguine Outlook
Table: Top 10 Infrastructure Projects Globally In 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Sudan Macroeconomic Snapshot
Table: Sudan Country Snapshot, Economic and Demographic Data, 2011-2021
Table: Sudan Country Snapshot, Power Sector
Sudan Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 -2016
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021
Table: Sudan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
Table: Sudan Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 -2021
Sudan
South Sudan
Electricity Consumption
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021
Sudan
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Sudan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010 -2016
Table: Sudan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 -2021
Table: Sudan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
Table: Sudan Trade Long-Term Forecasts , 2015 -2021
Sudan
South Sudan
Key Policies/Market Structure
Power Market Still Struggling
Key Projects Database
Table: Key Projects Database
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Disparity Within
Table: Mea Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Sudan and South Sudan’s Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor
Africa Power: Competitive Landscape
Table: Main Utilities In East Africa
Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (Ex. South Africa)
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources
Sudan & South Sudan Power SWOT
Regional Industry Overview
MEA Power: Strong Fundamentals Support Sanguine Outlook
Table: Top 10 Infrastructure Projects Globally In 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Sudan Macroeconomic Snapshot
Table: Sudan Country Snapshot, Economic and Demographic Data, 2011-2021
Table: Sudan Country Snapshot, Power Sector
Sudan Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 -2016
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021
Table: Sudan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
Table: Sudan Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 -2021
Sudan
South Sudan
Electricity Consumption
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
Table: Sudan Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021
Sudan
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Sudan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010 -2016
Table: Sudan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 -2021
Table: Sudan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
Table: Sudan Trade Long-Term Forecasts , 2015 -2021
Sudan
South Sudan
Key Policies/Market Structure
Power Market Still Struggling
Key Projects Database
Table: Key Projects Database
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
MEA Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Disparity Within
Table: Mea Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Sudan and South Sudan’s Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor
Africa Power: Competitive Landscape
Table: Main Utilities In East Africa
Table: Main Utilities In Southern Africa (Ex. South Africa)
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources
