Sudan and South Sudan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Crude output will struggle to grow over the short term as disruption to oil production is likely to continue in the wake of Juba’s secession. Ongoing disagreements over revenue sharing and border delineation also threaten to cause further disruption to production and exports. We therefore expect combined oil production to have been just 486,000b/d in 2011, and anticipate volumes will be below 500,000b/d until 2014. If a settlement is reached quickly and new international investment is encouraged output is likely rise more rapidly, raising upside risks to our rather conservative forecast.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan’s Oil and Gas sector are:
BMI View: Crude output will struggle to grow over the short term as disruption to oil production is likely to continue in the wake of Juba’s secession. Ongoing disagreements over revenue sharing and border delineation also threaten to cause further disruption to production and exports. We therefore expect combined oil production to have been just 486,000b/d in 2011, and anticipate volumes will be below 500,000b/d until 2014. If a settlement is reached quickly and new international investment is encouraged output is likely rise more rapidly, raising upside risks to our rather conservative forecast.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- A shortage of oil workers and damage to some production facilities is likely to push output below pre-secession levels in South Sudan during H112. At present oil production is reportedly 20,000 barrels per day (b/d) lower than in July 2011, at just 350,000b/d, according to South Sudan’s Petroleum and Mining Minister Stephen Dhieu Dau.
- Khartoum is likely to try to boost production over the coming years as it seeks to replace volumes lost to the South during secession. Deputy oil minister, Ali Ahmed Osman said Khartoum was aiming to increase production from 110,000b/d to 180,000b/d by year-end 2011. This target is extremely unlikely to have been met. Indeed, we expect that Khartoum to struggle to raise output over the coming years as most foreign investment is likely to target South Sudan.
- Production growth is therefore likely to be stronger in South Sudan where we expect output to rise from 369,000b/d in 2011 to 420,000b/d by 2017. Our forecasts therefore point to combined output of 486,000b/d in 2011 and 542,000b/d by 2016.
- Oil reserves are set to fall gradually, in line with higher production volumes, unless significant new investment in exploration is made over the coming years.
- Oil consumption is forecast to grow steadily, on the back of healthy economic growth in South Sudan, from 95,000b/d in 2011 to 114,000b/d in 2016.
- We anticipate exports will rise from 386,000b/d in 2011 to 427,000b/d by 2016. We assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$99.38/bbl in 2012. Our forecasts reflect slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis.
Contents
BMI Industry ViewSWOT Analysis
Sudan And South Sudan Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Africa Overview: Production And Consumption To Bounce Back
Sudan And South Sudan Energy Market Overview
Table: Sudan And South Sudan – Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Sudan And South Sudan Oil and Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Sudan
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Composite Scores
Table: Africa Regional Ratings
Upstream Scores
Table: Africa Regional Upstream
Sudan And South Sudan Upstream Rating – Overview
Downstream Scores
Table: Africa Regional Downstream
Sudan And South Sudan Downstream Rating – Overview
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Sudan Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
CNPC Sudan
ONGC Sudan
Petronas Sudan
Sinopec – Summary
Star Petroleum – Summary
Petrodar – Summary
Total – Summary
Ascom – Summary
Others – Summary
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
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