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BMI View: Petrochemicals and refining remain the lifeblood of Singapore, with strong regional demand growth meaning there is potential for capacity expansion – although investment in countries such as China and Vietnam has led to increasingly fierce competition. Growing gas demand means liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are needed to augment pipeline volumes from Indonesia and Malaysia.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Singaporean Oil & Gas sector are:
BMI View: Petrochemicals and refining remain the lifeblood of Singapore, with strong regional demand growth meaning there is potential for capacity expansion – although investment in countries such as China and Vietnam has led to increasingly fierce competition. Growing gas demand means liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are needed to augment pipeline volumes from Indonesia and Malaysia.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Singaporean Oil & Gas sector are:
- Singapore's first LNG import terminal, expected to be ready in Q213, will be expanded to ensure it can meet all of the island-state's gas demand, raising the possibility that existing pipeline gas supply contracts with Malaysia and Indonesia may not be renewed. Chee Hong Tat, the chief executive of Singapore's Energy Market Authority (EMA), told an industry conference on March 5 2012 that the government would 'ensure sufficient capacity to import LNG to meet all of [Singapore's] gas demand'. The terminal, which will cost approximately SGD1.7bn (US$1.39bn), will have an initial capacity of 3.5mn tonnes per annum (tpa) – equivalent to 4.8bcm of gas. Construction of the terminal began in March 2010. The government announced in October that it would expand capacity to 9mn tpa with the addition of a SGD500mn fourth gas storage tank, likely to be complete by 2017.
- Singapore imports all of its natural gas, which is mainly used for power generation and petrochemical production, exclusively via pipelines. In 2011, Singapore consumed an estimated 8.8bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas – a rise of almost 500% since 2000. Gas use is rising rapidly, as the government promotes policies aimed at reducing carbon dioxide and sulphur emissions, ensuring energy security, and promoting the country as a regional hub for an integrated gas pipeline network. Our forecast is for gas consumption to reach at least 12.5bcm in 2016, rising further to 17.9bcm by 2021.
- Singapore has been experiencing steady growth in demand for oil, tracking both the local and regional economy. Throughput in Singapore's refining system should rise in line with regional demand. Beyond 2012, annual oil demand growth is likely to average 2.5-3.0% through to 2021. This implies demand rising from an estimated 896,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to around 1.2mn b/d in 2021 – all met by imports.
- As demand increases in Asia, the government has stated it will promote long-term growth in refining capacity in order to maintain its position as a leading exporter and regional trading hub. Furthermore, naphtha demand (for petrochemicals production) and the resumption of regional oil consumption growth point to a rise in refining capacity over the long term.
- Singapore's crude oil import bill is expected to rise from an estimated US$34.7bn in 2011 to US$35.0bn in 2016, before reaching US$38.9bn by 2021. The cost of gas imports in 2012 is estimated at US$5.0bn and is expected to rise to US$8.1bn by 2021. Combined crude oil and natural gas import costs look set to reach US$40.8bn by 2016 and US$47.0bn by 2021.At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Singapore Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Singapore Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
Table: Singapore Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data – Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Table: Singapore Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
Table: Singapore Oil Production, Consumption & Net Exports – Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Table: Singapore Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
Table: Singapore Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Country Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Singapore Upstream Rating – Overview
Singapore Upstream Rating – Rewards
Singapore Upstream Rating – Risks
Singapore Downstream Rating – Overview
Regional Risk/Reward Rating
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Singapore Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Downstream Projects
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/ Ports
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Oil Storage Facilities
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Singapore Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profiles
Singapore Petroleum Company
Chevron
ExxonMobil Singapore
Royal Dutch Shell
BG Group – Summary
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Table: Number Of Rigs In Operation In Asia
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts – A Comparison
Asia – Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
SWOT Analysis
Singapore Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Singapore Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
Table: Singapore Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data – Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Table: Singapore Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
Table: Singapore Oil Production, Consumption & Net Exports – Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Table: Singapore Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
Table: Singapore Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports – Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Country Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Singapore Upstream Rating – Overview
Singapore Upstream Rating – Rewards
Singapore Upstream Rating – Risks
Singapore Downstream Rating – Overview
Regional Risk/Reward Rating
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Singapore Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Downstream Projects
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/ Ports
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Oil Storage Facilities
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Singapore Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profiles
Singapore Petroleum Company
Chevron
ExxonMobil Singapore
Royal Dutch Shell
BG Group – Summary
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Table: Number Of Rigs In Operation In Asia
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts – A Comparison
Asia – Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Net LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
