Philippines Power Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Nuclear energy remains a possibility for the Philippines, with plenty of interest from Asian countries in salvaging the unfinished Bataan nuclear plant or building a new facility. There are doubts that the nuclear option will be taken up, particularly in view of the country’s vast renewables potential, the steady expansion of its thermal portfolio and a commitment to additional hydroelectric supply.
The government of the Philippines continues to reshape its power industry and energy portfolio. Stateowned assets are being sold off in order to bring in new investors, which will ease the burden on the country to increase its thermal, hydro and geothermal/wind capacity. There is a risk of supply growing too slowly to keep up with demand unless greater commitments are made towards large-scale hydro, renewables and, possibly, nuclear expansion.
Key trends and recent developments in the Philippines electricity market include:
BMI View: Nuclear energy remains a possibility for the Philippines, with plenty of interest from Asian countries in salvaging the unfinished Bataan nuclear plant or building a new facility. There are doubts that the nuclear option will be taken up, particularly in view of the country’s vast renewables potential, the steady expansion of its thermal portfolio and a commitment to additional hydroelectric supply.
The government of the Philippines continues to reshape its power industry and energy portfolio. Stateowned assets are being sold off in order to bring in new investors, which will ease the burden on the country to increase its thermal, hydro and geothermal/wind capacity. There is a risk of supply growing too slowly to keep up with demand unless greater commitments are made towards large-scale hydro, renewables and, possibly, nuclear expansion.
Key trends and recent developments in the Philippines electricity market include:
- During the period 2011-2016, the Philippines’ overall power generation is expected to increase by an average of 5.44% year-on-year (y-o-y), reaching 92.6TWh by 2016. Driving this growth are forecast average annual gains of 8.44% and 7.71% in gas-fired and hydro generation respectively, as well as an expected 4.12% average increase in renewables-based electricity supply. We note that the government is looking to convert oil-fired plants to gas while expanding the country’s geothermal capacity.
- An initial assessment by the Philippines Department of Energy (DoE) has placed the country’s total wind potential at 76GW (across a 10,000sq km area). Other DoE estimates of renewable energy potential in the country are: 4.41GW from geothermal energy; 147MW from hydro applications in Visayas; 1.78GW from mini-hydros from 888 sites; and an annual potential average of 5.0-5.1kWh/m2/day from solar power.
- Following assumed real GDP growth of about 4.1% in 2011, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.5% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to increase from the 2011 level of 94.9mn to 103.1mn in 2016, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 63.1TWh to 81.1TWh. Over the period 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 5.21%, but we expect it to slow somewhat later in the decade to an average 4.99% over 2016-2021.
- Thanks partly to the forecast steady rise in net power generation, which broadly matches the underlying demand trend, we do not expect the Philippines to develop a significant power supply shortfall during the forecast period, with some scope for a limited generation surplus. We note, however, that in order to avoid any shortages or import requirement, investment commitments need to be met in full. A falling percentage of transmission and distribution losses (assumed at around 13% in 2011) will help balance the market. By 2016, the market is expected to be broadly in balance, but there is a risk of 0.4TWh of net imports by 2021.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Philippines Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Slower Growth In Developed Markets To Accentuate Differences
Regional Industry Overview
In For A Sharp Expansion Of Generation And Consumption
Table: Nuclear Power In Asia
Industry Forecast Scenario
Philippines Snapshot (Macro)
Table: Philippines Economic and Demographic Data
Table: Philippines Power Sector
Philippines Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Philippines Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: Philippines Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Electricity Consumption
Table: Philippines Total Consumption Data
Table: Philippines Total Consumption Data
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Philippines Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015
Table: Philippines Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2012-2020
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Key Projects Database
Table: Philippines Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Business Environment
Asia Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Philippines Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
Napocor
The National Transmission Corporation (TransCo)
First Gen
Aboitiz Power
Ayala Corporation
Mirant
Meralco
EDC
AES
Company Monitor
First Gen
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry – Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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