Netherlands Renewables Report Q4 2012

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect renewable energy growth in the Netherlands to remain low in 2012, reflecting a slowdown in growth that has persisted since the current government took office in 2010. The future outlook for renewables remains uncertain as of now, as an early election will be held in September 2012 which could see some measure of government support restored. While we believe that the incoming government might restore support for renewables, the sizeable government deficit could weigh heavily upon any notions of support for costly clean energy.

We are forecasting non-hydropower renewable generation in the Netherlands to reach 13.8 terawatt hours (TWh) this year, representing growth of 3.8%. This represents a marked slowdown from the 1990-2009 average of 14% growth per annum. We attribute this slowdown to the drastic cuts in regulatory support made by the current government. We expect biomass energy generation to account for 70% of all nonhydropower renewable energy generated in 2012.

For the longer term, we expect growth in the sector to average 5.7% from 2012 to 2021. That said, we highlight the extremely uncertain long-term outlook for renewables, as the September 2012 election could see a major reversal of the country’s political stance on clean energy. The elections were brought forward as the government failed to reach an agreement on a budget to bring the country’s fiscal deficit below 3.0% of GDP by 2013. Here are the key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:

• The Dutch government cut renewable energy subsidies from EUR4bn to EUR1.5bn in 2011, but raised it to EUR1.7bn in 2012. Renewable energy targets were also reduced from 20% to 14% of total energy mix.
• The country’s fiscal deficit is currently estimated to be approximately 4.5% of GDP. The new government would have to cut spending substantially to achieve this target.
• Biomass generation growth continues to disappoint, following the new government’s unsupportive stance on the energy.
• Development of offshore wind potential has ground to a halt, following the removal of offshore wind energy from the existing FiT scheme. The only project currently being developed is the 600MW Gemini project, which is expected to begin construction this year.