Mexico Power Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Mexico continues to aim high in order to meet its ambitious targets for energy produced from renewable sources, with this quarter seeing new investment in wind power, additional funding released for renewable energy projects by the Inter-American Development Bank and a commitment to solar power, with new tenders and projects. Yet at the same time, Mexico is still keeping an eye on traditional sources of energy production. In terms of thermal power stations, one development came from Spanish firm Abengoa as it has been awarded a US$440mn contract for the development of a combined cycle gas power plant. Nuclear energy remains on the sidelines, for the time being at least, but BMI believes that in order to meet the goals set out in its climate change programme, the government may have to reconsider nuclear as a means of meeting energy requirements in a low-carbon way.
Mexico’s ambitious plans to boost renewable energy generation have seen a number of projects gain approval or funding over 2011, and such moves have triggered additional international interest from firms keen to invest in Mexico’s energy sector. These include Australia’s Macquaries Group’s plans to begin constructing the Mareña Renovables wind power plant in Oaxaca state in late 2011 (the Inter-American Development Bank will provide up to US$72mn in funding) and China’s Risen Energy’s agreement with Durango’s state government to construct a solar power plant. In addition, the Federal Electricity Comission (CFE) has pushed forward the start date for the work on La Yesca hydroelectric plant, with an aim for it to produce electricity for the grid by late 2016.
But Mexico has also made advances in non-renewables, with key examples being the US$440mn contract awarded to Spanish firm Abengoa to construct a 640MW combined cycle gas power plant in December 2011, and the news that General Electric will provide six gas turbines to repower the Manzanillo thermoelectric plant.
BMI’s extended forecasts calculate that during the period 2011-2016, Mexico’s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 3.06%, reaching 305.38TWh. Driving this growth are average annual gains of just under 4% in gas-fired, hydro and renewables-based generation.
BMI estimates that real GDP grew by 3.75% in 2011, and we forecast average annual growth of 2.6% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 114.8mn to 127mn during the period 2011-2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 213TWh in 2011 to 245TWh by 2016, rising further to 279TWh by 2021. During the period 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 3.1%, which will slow somewhat later in the decade to an average 2.6% in 2016-2021. The theoretical net export capability by 2016 is put at 8.9TWh, which could be no more than 7.5Wh by 2021.
BMI View: Mexico continues to aim high in order to meet its ambitious targets for energy produced from renewable sources, with this quarter seeing new investment in wind power, additional funding released for renewable energy projects by the Inter-American Development Bank and a commitment to solar power, with new tenders and projects. Yet at the same time, Mexico is still keeping an eye on traditional sources of energy production. In terms of thermal power stations, one development came from Spanish firm Abengoa as it has been awarded a US$440mn contract for the development of a combined cycle gas power plant. Nuclear energy remains on the sidelines, for the time being at least, but BMI believes that in order to meet the goals set out in its climate change programme, the government may have to reconsider nuclear as a means of meeting energy requirements in a low-carbon way.
Mexico’s ambitious plans to boost renewable energy generation have seen a number of projects gain approval or funding over 2011, and such moves have triggered additional international interest from firms keen to invest in Mexico’s energy sector. These include Australia’s Macquaries Group’s plans to begin constructing the Mareña Renovables wind power plant in Oaxaca state in late 2011 (the Inter-American Development Bank will provide up to US$72mn in funding) and China’s Risen Energy’s agreement with Durango’s state government to construct a solar power plant. In addition, the Federal Electricity Comission (CFE) has pushed forward the start date for the work on La Yesca hydroelectric plant, with an aim for it to produce electricity for the grid by late 2016.
But Mexico has also made advances in non-renewables, with key examples being the US$440mn contract awarded to Spanish firm Abengoa to construct a 640MW combined cycle gas power plant in December 2011, and the news that General Electric will provide six gas turbines to repower the Manzanillo thermoelectric plant.
BMI’s extended forecasts calculate that during the period 2011-2016, Mexico’s overall power generation will increase by an annual average of 3.06%, reaching 305.38TWh. Driving this growth are average annual gains of just under 4% in gas-fired, hydro and renewables-based generation.
BMI estimates that real GDP grew by 3.75% in 2011, and we forecast average annual growth of 2.6% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 114.8mn to 127mn during the period 2011-2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 213TWh in 2011 to 245TWh by 2016, rising further to 279TWh by 2021. During the period 2011-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 3.1%, which will slow somewhat later in the decade to an average 2.6% in 2016-2021. The theoretical net export capability by 2016 is put at 8.9TWh, which could be no more than 7.5Wh by 2021.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Mexico Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Slower Growth In Developed Markets To Accentuate Differences
Regional Industry Overview
Gauging The Risks To Latin America Power Forecasts
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mexico Snapshot (Macro)
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Mexico Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: Mexico Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: Mexico Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Table: Mexico Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Electricity Consumption
Table: Mexico Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Table: Mexico Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Mexico Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: Mexico Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Key Projects Database
Table: Major Projects - Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Business Environment
Mexico Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
Comisión Federal de Electricidad
Iberdrola
Union Fenosa
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry – Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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