Kuwait Power Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Nuclear energy may be on the distant horizon for Kuwait, but its near- to medium-term power future depends almost exclusively on oil and gas. Much of planned new generating capacity is gas-fired, with oil often as a back-up fuel. The aim is to make more of the country’s oil available for export, even if this means a growing reliance on imported gas. Hints at a major renewables programme have yet to convince industry insiders. Low power costs means that project economics are unlikely to attract foreign investors, so Kuwait looks set to go it alone in meeting its growing power demand.
Conventional thermal sources are expected to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation in the coming years, with many power projects that are currently planned or under construction due to use gas in order to reduce domestic oil consumption and free up additional barrels for export. The electricity and water ministry wishes to more than double generating and desalination capacity by 2017. An estimated US$2.5bn is expected to be invested over the medium-term to cater for the projected power demand until 2015. Renewables could become part of the solution, particularly given the vast solar potential of the desert state.
Key trends and recent developments in the Kuwaiti electricity market include:
BMI View: Nuclear energy may be on the distant horizon for Kuwait, but its near- to medium-term power future depends almost exclusively on oil and gas. Much of planned new generating capacity is gas-fired, with oil often as a back-up fuel. The aim is to make more of the country’s oil available for export, even if this means a growing reliance on imported gas. Hints at a major renewables programme have yet to convince industry insiders. Low power costs means that project economics are unlikely to attract foreign investors, so Kuwait looks set to go it alone in meeting its growing power demand.
Conventional thermal sources are expected to remain the dominant fuel for electricity generation in the coming years, with many power projects that are currently planned or under construction due to use gas in order to reduce domestic oil consumption and free up additional barrels for export. The electricity and water ministry wishes to more than double generating and desalination capacity by 2017. An estimated US$2.5bn is expected to be invested over the medium-term to cater for the projected power demand until 2015. Renewables could become part of the solution, particularly given the vast solar potential of the desert state.
Key trends and recent developments in the Kuwaiti electricity market include:
- Kuwait aims to generate 10% of its electricity from sustainable sources by 2020, said Eyad Ali al-Falah, assistant undersecretary for technical services at the Ministry of Electricity and Water. To meet its clean energy target, which exceeds the 7% goal set by Abu Dhabi, Kuwait next must gather data on sunshine and wind speeds, al-Falah said.
- During the period 2011-2021, Kuwait’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 4.15%, reaching 78.83TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 5.70% gain in gas-fired and a 3.39% rise in oil-fired generation.
- Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of an estimated 6.1%, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.0% between 2011 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the current level of 2.82mn to 3.45mn by 2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 46.1TWh to 57.0TWh by 2016, rising further to 68.4TWh by 2021. During the period 2011- 2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 4.47%, but slowing to an average 3.82% in 2016-2021.
- Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which barely matches the underlying demand trend, Kuwait could end up having a small, but growing, power supply shortfall. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses from around 12.4% in 2011 will help balance the market. The theoretical net import requirement by 2016 is put at 0.5TWh, but this could increase to 1.2TWh by 2021.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Kuwait Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Kuwait Snapshot (Macro)
Kuwait: Economic and Demographic Data
Kuwait: Power Sector
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
Table: Kuwait Total Generation Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015
Table: Kuwait Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts
Table: Kuwait Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Table: Kuwait Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts
Electricity Consumption
Table: Kuwait Total Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015
Table: Kuwait Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Kuwait Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015
Table: Kuwait Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts
Table: Kuwait Trade Data And Forecasts, 2007-2015
Table: Kuwait Trade Data And Forecasts
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation and Competition
Key Projects Database
Table: Major Power Projects - Power Plants & Transmission Grids
Business Environment
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Mea Power Risk/Return Ratings
Kuwait Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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