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BMI View: Demand growth is healthy, reflecting economic expansion. Plans for new generating capacity continue to focus on conventional thermal sources, with gas taking the lead thanks to the state's substantial domestic resources. Asian influence is growing, with China and South Korea entering the power arena as financiers of and contractors for generating facilities. However, Russia may emerge as the partner of choice if Kazakhstan opts to bring nuclear capacity online.
In spite of Kazakhstan's vast gas reserves, the country's power industry is seeking to avoid overdependence on the fuel in electricity generation and has a diversified policy involving coal, hydropower and renewables. Nuclear has been side-lined, but may well emerge as a key component of the power portfolio over the long term, thanks to huge uranium wealth. System losses are considerable and improved efficiency could narrow the supply/demand gap. Ongoing high level investment in generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure is therefore necessary, and foreign partners, largely from Asia and Russia, are being lined up for the major projects.
The key trends and developments in the Kazakh electricity market are:
BMI View: Demand growth is healthy, reflecting economic expansion. Plans for new generating capacity continue to focus on conventional thermal sources, with gas taking the lead thanks to the state's substantial domestic resources. Asian influence is growing, with China and South Korea entering the power arena as financiers of and contractors for generating facilities. However, Russia may emerge as the partner of choice if Kazakhstan opts to bring nuclear capacity online.
In spite of Kazakhstan's vast gas reserves, the country's power industry is seeking to avoid overdependence on the fuel in electricity generation and has a diversified policy involving coal, hydropower and renewables. Nuclear has been side-lined, but may well emerge as a key component of the power portfolio over the long term, thanks to huge uranium wealth. System losses are considerable and improved efficiency could narrow the supply/demand gap. Ongoing high level investment in generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure is therefore necessary, and foreign partners, largely from Asia and Russia, are being lined up for the major projects.
The key trends and developments in the Kazakh electricity market are:
- Growth in Kazakh power consumption is forecast to average almost 4.3% per annum between 2013 and 2021. This reflects the relative immaturity of the energy market, though the risks to this forecast are largely to the upside as increased hydrocarbons-backed wealth stimulates the economy. Growth in power generation is anticipated to average 4.2% per annum over the period, which may prove insufficient to increase market coverage and ensure adequate supply, unless system losses can be reduced greatly.
- According to government forecasts, the production of electricity will increase to 150.2 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030 (broadly in line with BMI forecasts), with power demand rising to almost 145TWh over the same period (our forecast is for demand to hit 112KWTh by 2021). Existing investment plans in the power sector amount to KZT1,147bn through to 2015, with an estimated KZT9,500bn needed between 2012 and 2030.
- State grid operator Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company (KEGOC) has already approved a long-term investment strategy, under which KZT530bn will be invested by 2025. KEGOC has embarked upon several projects, including the rehabilitation of substations, transmission lines and other equipment, as well as building a substation near Almaty and power lines to the Moinak power plant. KEGOC is considering building a 500 kilovolt north-south power line and transmission lines in order to connect the west Kazakh regions of Uralsk, Atyrau and Mangystau to the national grid. Kazakhstan will probably delay its planned stake sale in KEGOC until 2013, according to a March 2012 statement made by Bakytzhan Sagintayev, the country's minister of trade and economic development.
- There is considerable potential in renewable power generation, and the government expects the total share of renewable power generation to rise to 11% by 2030. In November it was announced that French-based Fonroche Energie SAS had signed an agreement with Kazakh ZhambylGidroEnergo to build a 2,000MW solar plant in the country, with construction set to begin in 2013.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Kazakhstan Power SWOT
Regional Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Kazakhstan Snapshot (Macro)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Kazakhstan Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Electricity Consumption
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Table: Electricity Prices In The EU Member States, As Of May 2012
Key Projects Database
Table: Kazakhstan Major Projects - Power
Risk/Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Kazakhstan's Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
KEGOC
AES
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources
SWOT Analysis
Kazakhstan Power SWOT
Regional Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Kazakhstan Snapshot (Macro)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Kazakhstan Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Electricity Consumption
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Table: Electricity Prices In The EU Member States, As Of May 2012
Key Projects Database
Table: Kazakhstan Major Projects - Power
Risk/Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Kazakhstan's Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
KEGOC
AES
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources
