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BMI View: Geothermal looks set to remain the renewable energy of choice for Indonesia over our forecast period. However, we believe that low returns and a lack of regulatory clarity for geothermal projects are hindering growth in the sector. Some changes have been made to improve this situation, but we do not expect growth to live up to the government’s ambitions. We are forecasting that 10.1 terawatt hours (TWh) of non-hydropower renewable energy will be generated in 2012, representing a 10.8% growth from 2011. Geothermal energy generation is expected to account for approximately 99% of the 10.1TWh, with the remaining 1% coming from wind and biomass energy generation. Between 2012 and 2021, we are forecasting non-hydropower renewable generation to grow at an average rate of 12.7% per annum, reaching 30.3TWh in 2021. The main factors driving growth in nonhydropower renewables will be growth of electricity consumption in the country, and the country’s current reliance on fuel imports.
We expect geothermal to remain the most cost-efficient renewable technology available to the country, and predict its continued dominance in the renewables mix over the forecast period. Here are the key trends and regulatory changes in the industry: • The government extended the feed-in tariff (FiT) scheme to include hydropower and biomass applications through Ministerial Regulation 04/2012. The scheme applies to projects with capacities below 10MW, and offers differentiated rates based on location and technology.
In February 2012, the government announced its intention to limit electricity subsidies to IDR45trn in 2012, which would lead to an average increase of 10% for the basic electricity tariff (currently at US$0.08/kWh). This would reduce the disparity between the generating cost and selling price of renewable energy, and would improve the viability of renewables.
The government announced that it would provide IDR2trn (US$213mn) of loans to finance geothermal projects undertaken by IPPs or the state utility. This reflects the challenge that Indonesia is facing in attracting private investors and power providers to enter the country’s geothermal sector.
Indonesia will receive a new commercial-scale wind farm, bringing the tally to two. However, we do not expect wind energy to play a large role in Indonesia’s energy mix, as geothermal will be more attractive relative to wind energy.
BMI View: Geothermal looks set to remain the renewable energy of choice for Indonesia over our forecast period. However, we believe that low returns and a lack of regulatory clarity for geothermal projects are hindering growth in the sector. Some changes have been made to improve this situation, but we do not expect growth to live up to the government’s ambitions. We are forecasting that 10.1 terawatt hours (TWh) of non-hydropower renewable energy will be generated in 2012, representing a 10.8% growth from 2011. Geothermal energy generation is expected to account for approximately 99% of the 10.1TWh, with the remaining 1% coming from wind and biomass energy generation. Between 2012 and 2021, we are forecasting non-hydropower renewable generation to grow at an average rate of 12.7% per annum, reaching 30.3TWh in 2021. The main factors driving growth in nonhydropower renewables will be growth of electricity consumption in the country, and the country’s current reliance on fuel imports.
We expect geothermal to remain the most cost-efficient renewable technology available to the country, and predict its continued dominance in the renewables mix over the forecast period. Here are the key trends and regulatory changes in the industry: • The government extended the feed-in tariff (FiT) scheme to include hydropower and biomass applications through Ministerial Regulation 04/2012. The scheme applies to projects with capacities below 10MW, and offers differentiated rates based on location and technology.
In February 2012, the government announced its intention to limit electricity subsidies to IDR45trn in 2012, which would lead to an average increase of 10% for the basic electricity tariff (currently at US$0.08/kWh). This would reduce the disparity between the generating cost and selling price of renewable energy, and would improve the viability of renewables.
The government announced that it would provide IDR2trn (US$213mn) of loans to finance geothermal projects undertaken by IPPs or the state utility. This reflects the challenge that Indonesia is facing in attracting private investors and power providers to enter the country’s geothermal sector.
Indonesia will receive a new commercial-scale wind farm, bringing the tally to two. However, we do not expect wind energy to play a large role in Indonesia’s energy mix, as geothermal will be more attractive relative to wind energy.
BMI View
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Renewables SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021
Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure
Targets (Renewables and Emissions)
Subsidies
Table: Renewable Feed-In Tariffs In, 2012
Infrastructure
Competitive Landscape
Perusahaan Listrik Negara Pertamina (PLN)
Chevron
Origin Energy
Tata Power
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology and Sources
Industry Forecasts
Renewables Industry - Data Methodology
Generation Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Sources
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Renewables SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
Table: Indonesia Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021
Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016
Table: Indonesia Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure
Targets (Renewables and Emissions)
Subsidies
Table: Renewable Feed-In Tariffs In, 2012
Infrastructure
Competitive Landscape
Perusahaan Listrik Negara Pertamina (PLN)
Chevron
Origin Energy
Tata Power
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology and Sources
Industry Forecasts
Renewables Industry - Data Methodology
Generation Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Sources
