Canada Power Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View: Both industry-specific and macroeconomic factors continue to underpin our view that Canada's mature electricity market will see a moderate rise in generation and consumption in the coming years. Macroeconomic headwinds, coupled with uncertainties over the renewal of renewables subsidies in some of the Provinces, have prompted us to a slight downward revision of our forecasts for Canada's power sector. That said, and despite Canada 's decision to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol, we still expect that renewable projects will dominate the pipeline in the coming years.
We have long held the view that Canada, which enjoys the advantage of a diverse and balanced electricity mix thanks to its abundant indigenous resources, will increase its electricity generation and consumption moderately in the coming years. Risks of a potential economic downturn in the country going into 2012 have now prompted us to pencil in a slight downward revision for consumption, which is now expected to reach 561.67TWh in 201 2 (compared to a previous forecast of 564.5TWh).
Furthermore, we have also intervened on our capacity forecasts for renewable sources (namely solar and wind) on the back of protracted uncertainties, as the generous Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) schemes adopted by some of Canada's provinces have been under scrutiny for months, with negative effects on investor confidence and installation rates. In spite of these short-term concerns, we maintain our view that in the medium-to-long renewable projects are to dominate the pipeline.
Canada currently enjoys the advantage of a diverse and balanced electricity mix, thanks to its abundant indigenous resources. However, the Canadian Electricity Association and the IEA have estimated that by 2030 utility companies will need CAD134bn in investment for generation and CAD103.6bn for transmission and distribution to ensure long-term stability in supply. Provincial energy strategies strongly reflect a growing desire to increase both the use of green resources and the capacity of transmission networks. Furthermore, the country will need to substitute its ageing thermal capacity, especially if it is to meet its ambitious carbon emission reduction targets.
In light of these elements, key themes for Canada’s power sector this quarter include:
BMI View: Both industry-specific and macroeconomic factors continue to underpin our view that Canada's mature electricity market will see a moderate rise in generation and consumption in the coming years. Macroeconomic headwinds, coupled with uncertainties over the renewal of renewables subsidies in some of the Provinces, have prompted us to a slight downward revision of our forecasts for Canada's power sector. That said, and despite Canada 's decision to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol, we still expect that renewable projects will dominate the pipeline in the coming years.
We have long held the view that Canada, which enjoys the advantage of a diverse and balanced electricity mix thanks to its abundant indigenous resources, will increase its electricity generation and consumption moderately in the coming years. Risks of a potential economic downturn in the country going into 2012 have now prompted us to pencil in a slight downward revision for consumption, which is now expected to reach 561.67TWh in 201 2 (compared to a previous forecast of 564.5TWh).
Furthermore, we have also intervened on our capacity forecasts for renewable sources (namely solar and wind) on the back of protracted uncertainties, as the generous Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) schemes adopted by some of Canada's provinces have been under scrutiny for months, with negative effects on investor confidence and installation rates. In spite of these short-term concerns, we maintain our view that in the medium-to-long renewable projects are to dominate the pipeline.
Canada currently enjoys the advantage of a diverse and balanced electricity mix, thanks to its abundant indigenous resources. However, the Canadian Electricity Association and the IEA have estimated that by 2030 utility companies will need CAD134bn in investment for generation and CAD103.6bn for transmission and distribution to ensure long-term stability in supply. Provincial energy strategies strongly reflect a growing desire to increase both the use of green resources and the capacity of transmission networks. Furthermore, the country will need to substitute its ageing thermal capacity, especially if it is to meet its ambitious carbon emission reduction targets.
In light of these elements, key themes for Canada’s power sector this quarter include:
- The victory of the incumbent Liberal government in Ontario has prevented the Conservative party from cancelling the province's entire feed-in-tariff (FiT) scheme, if elected. The Conservatives had pledged to intervene on the scheme retroactively, scrapping the incentives offered to Samsung’s wind project among others.
- Nonetheless, the rate of installation in the Province has slowed down substantially, owing to the Liberals’ post-election decision to slash the number of power proposals eligible for the current generous 20-year fixed rates. The retroactive cap is part of an expected review of Ontario’s FiT programme.
- Canada's Northland Power launched commercial operations at the Spy Hill gas-fired peaking plant in Saskatchewan, Canada, on October 19 2011. Under a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Saskatchewan Power, the plant is to supply power to the Saskatchewan power grid. The 86MW plant, featuring two 6000 natural gas-fired simple-cycle turbines from General Electric, has been constructed under a joint venture (JV) between Aecon Group and Black & Veatch.
Contents
SWOT AnalysisCanada Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Canada Snapshot (Macro)
Canada Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Canada Snapshot: Power Sector
Canada Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
Table: Canada Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Table: Canada Total Electricity Generation Lon-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Table: Canada Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Canada Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Canada's Nuclear Power Reactors
Electricity Consumption
Table: Canada Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Table: Canada Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Canada Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Table: Canada Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Lon-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Table: Canada Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-20015
Table: Canada Trade Lon-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation and Competition
Table: Canadian Power Industry – Structural Models
Table: Canadian Power Industry – Regulation
Sustainable Energy Policies
Pricing
Key Projects Database
Table: Major Projects - Power Plants & transmission grids
Business Environment
Developed Countries Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Canada Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor
BC Hydro
EPCOR
Hydro One
Maritime Electric
Ontario Power
Newfoundland Power
Nova Scotia Power
SaskPower
Enmax
Energie NB Power
ATCO
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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