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BMI View: In spite of repeated delays in project development, several productions sites are expected to come on-stream in the next few years offering large prospect for the oil and gas production to rise substantially in the coming decade. This is the case for the PSVM field (150,000b/d and 2.5bcm) and several fields in BP's Block 31(150,000b/d). Attempts to cut gas flaring and the opening of the Angola LNG plant also boost the outlook for gas production and export. Nevertheless, OPEC quotas, the risk of further project delays and the Angolan political environment still imply a significant amount of uncertainty.
Main trends and developments we highlight for Angola's oil and gas sector are as follows:
BMI View: In spite of repeated delays in project development, several productions sites are expected to come on-stream in the next few years offering large prospect for the oil and gas production to rise substantially in the coming decade. This is the case for the PSVM field (150,000b/d and 2.5bcm) and several fields in BP's Block 31(150,000b/d). Attempts to cut gas flaring and the opening of the Angola LNG plant also boost the outlook for gas production and export. Nevertheless, OPEC quotas, the risk of further project delays and the Angolan political environment still imply a significant amount of uncertainty.
Main trends and developments we highlight for Angola's oil and gas sector are as follows:
- We expect oil production to increase from approximately 1.84mn b/d in 2011 to 2.48mn b/d in 2021 with a 2.8mn b/d peak in 2016. This is the result of projects that have recently come onstream, such as Pazflor (220,000b/d), or that are scheduled to come onstream in the coming years, such as PSVM (150,000b/d).
- Consumption of crude is likely to rise at an average rate of 10.75% from 2011 to 2021. This very high rate of growth is boosted by the country's double-digit GDP growth, as the economy experiences a catching up phenomenon following nearly three decades of civil war. We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from an estimated 88,000b/d in 2011 to hit 226,000b/d by 2021
- We forecast that gas production will increase from 0.73bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 7.4bcm by 2021, as the authorities and companies reduce the practice of flaring and start to monetise/associated gas resources. The 2012 Angola LNG export hub will further incentivise gas production, leveraging on associated gas production from massive fields such as Pazflor (1.5bcm) and PSVM (2.5bcm).
- Gas demand is set to rise at an average rate of 2.23% although this hides a somewhat irregular pace. Relatively low demand growth when compared to growth in gas production and oil consumption can be explained by the fact that gas plays virtually no role in the country's electricity generation and that there are no plans to expand its share in the energy mix. As a result, we see gas consumption rising from 0.74bcm in 2011 to 0.93bcm by 2021.
- Non-subsalt Angolan oil reserves are likely to reach a peak in the coming decade, although they are set to increase at first thanks to exploration potential; not only in the well known Lower Congo and Kwanza basin, but also in the southern Namibe basin. Exploration and recent discoveries in recently allocated subsalt acreages create a serious upside risk to our forecast. However, with still limited information on the commercial viability and speed at which these resources can be monetised, we have decided not to include them in our forecast until more information is made available. Oil reserves are forecast to peak at about 11.5bn bbl in 2016 before stabilising throughout the end of the decade. Gas reserves are expected to rise above 320bcm in 2012 and to remain above that threshold through to 2020.
- In terms of infrastructure, the authorities have ambitious plans in LNG and refining. The Angola LNG project appears to be on target to meet the 2012 completion deadline. However, the 65,000b/d Luanda refinery is still struggling and has low utilisation rates. The 200,000b/d SonaRef project is stalling but we still expect it to come onstream in the next 10 years, albeit with some delays. The 200,000b/d Soyo plant is still in its early stages and we deem it unlikely to be completed before 2021.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Angola Oil and Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Table: Angola Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016
Table: Angola Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Angola Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Angola Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Angola Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Angola Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Table: Angola Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016
Table: Angola Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Angola Upstream Rating - Overview
Angola Downstream Rating - Overview
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa
Table: Africa's Downstream Risk/Reward Scores
Angola Energy Market Overview
Table: Upstream Projects
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Angola
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Angola's Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profiles
Sociedade Nacional de Combustiveis de Angola (Sonangol)
Chevron
Esso Exploration Angola
BP Angola
Total Exploration Angola
Eni Angola Production
Statoil - Summary
Sinopec - Summary
Petrobras - Summary
Marathon Oil - Summary
Cobalt International Energy - Summary
Repsol - Summary
Others - Summary
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Africa - Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
SWOT Analysis
Angola Oil and Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Table: Angola Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016
Table: Angola Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Angola Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Angola Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Angola Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Angola Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Table: Angola Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016
Table: Angola Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Angola Upstream Rating - Overview
Angola Downstream Rating - Overview
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa
Table: Africa's Downstream Risk/Reward Scores
Angola Energy Market Overview
Table: Upstream Projects
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Angola
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Angola's Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profiles
Sociedade Nacional de Combustiveis de Angola (Sonangol)
Chevron
Esso Exploration Angola
BP Angola
Total Exploration Angola
Eni Angola Production
Statoil - Summary
Sinopec - Summary
Petrobras - Summary
Marathon Oil - Summary
Cobalt International Energy - Summary
Repsol - Summary
Others - Summary
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Africa - Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
