South Africa Infrastructure Report Q2 2012

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: South Africa’s severe hangover from pre-World Cup excesses continues to weigh heavily on the growth outlook for the construction sector. Despite the governments continued pledges towards a national infrastructure plan - with 2012 dubbed the ‘Year of Infrastructure’ in President Zuma’s state of the union address - cumbersome bureaucracy continues to erode contract opportunities. Hence, South Africa's construction industry continues to face limited growth at home and, as a result, many companies are now trying their luck elsewhere in the region.

• South African public transport operator Transnet has announced that a portion of its five-year budget has been brought forward, in order to accelerate port and rail improvement schemes. The improvements include 95 new electric trains, 43 new diesel trains and new port equipment for Durban and Ngqura container ports. The funds will be used by 2013.
• Transnet and Swazi Rail signed an agreement in January 2012 to build a new US$2bn railway between South Africa’s coal rich Mpumalanga province and western Swaziland. The venture will relive Richards Bay heavy-haul line and enable South Africa to take advantage of its capacity at the Richards Bay Coal terminal to meet the rising demand from India and China.
• The South African government is reported to be preparing to launch a tender for a US$126bn nuclear plant building project. The tender would cover the construction of six new plants. French and Chinese companies are preparing a joint bid, according to reports by The Johannesburg Mail and Guardian newspaper.
• The World Bank agreed a US$250mn loan with the South African government to fund the construction of two new renewable energy projects in the country. The investment will finance the building of a 100MW solar power plant at Upington in the Northern Cape and a 100MW wind power plant in the Western Cape, with each facility due to be operated by public utility Eskom. The World Bank now has a renewable energy portfolio of US$4.9bn, which is 23% of its overall energy portfolio. Investment in Africa's renewable energy sector reached US$3.6bn in FY10/11.

Political uncertainty is growing ahead of South Africa's African National Congress 2012 elections. Though we believe that President Jacob Zuma is likely to hold on to power – strengthened by the lack of obvious challenger and the recent sidelining of Julius Malema, the controversial-but-popular leader of the party’s youth wing – his leadership has been facing strong criticism within the party. While we forecast relatively stable real GDP growth rates over our forecast period, ongoing structural shortcomings will continue to limit South Africa's long-term growth potential. High unemployment and powerful trade unions present key challenges to the authorities. We forecast that real GDP growth will come in at 2.7% in 2012 and average 3.5% between 2013 and 2021.

Contents

BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
South Africa Infrastructure Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
EQS Table
Building Materials
Global
Africa
Cement Forecasts
Table: South Africa Cement Production and Consumption Data
Table: South Africa Cement Production and Consumption Data
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: South Africa Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: South Africa Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure
Table: South Africa Transport Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: South Africa Transport Infrastructure Industry Data
Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
Major Projects Table – Transport
Table: Major Projects - Transport
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
Table: South Africa Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: South Africa Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
Major Projects Table – Energy And Utilities
Table: Major Projects – Energy And Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
Table: South Africa Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data
Table: South Africa Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure Forecast Outlook and Overview
Major Projects Table – Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
Table: Major Projects – Construction And Social Infrastructure
Risk/Reward Ratings
South Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Regional Overview
Africa Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Africa Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
Company Profiles
Eskom
Transnet
Murray & Roberts Group (M&R)
Global Overview
Global Infrastructure View - Themes And Trends In Infrastructure For 2012
Methodology
Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Data Methodology
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
Construction
Capital Investment
Construction Sector Employment
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
Project Finance Ratings
Table: Design And Construction Phase
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport
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