Iraq Infrastructure Report Q1 2012
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Iraq’s reconstruction has resulted in significant contract awards, with US$124bn of projects currently underway or in the pipeline. However, cracks are showing in the country’s business environment, as weak bureaucracy threatens to undermine progress in projects. In addition, questions over the government’s ability to coordinate and afford funds raise doubts over our medium-term optimistic forecast, with annual average growth of 8.7% currently anticipated between 2012 and 2016.
A huge project pipeline supported by infrastructure and housing projects has resulted in our strong growth outlook for Iraq’s construction industry. There is even further upside to this figure if the cabinet’s US$37bn infrastructure programme is approved by the country’s government.
Over the short-term, significant contract awards in 2010 and H111 should drive strong activity, with 2011 real growth estimated at 11.9%. However, we expect that the disintegration of a number of large contracts could dampen growth in 2012, and forecast a slight slowdown to 8.2%. This trend illustrates our concerns over Iraq’s infrastructure sector, which stems primarily from a poor business environment and the government’s weak fiscal position:
Iraq’s reconstruction has resulted in significant contract awards, with US$124bn of projects currently underway or in the pipeline. However, cracks are showing in the country’s business environment, as weak bureaucracy threatens to undermine progress in projects. In addition, questions over the government’s ability to coordinate and afford funds raise doubts over our medium-term optimistic forecast, with annual average growth of 8.7% currently anticipated between 2012 and 2016.
A huge project pipeline supported by infrastructure and housing projects has resulted in our strong growth outlook for Iraq’s construction industry. There is even further upside to this figure if the cabinet’s US$37bn infrastructure programme is approved by the country’s government.
Over the short-term, significant contract awards in 2010 and H111 should drive strong activity, with 2011 real growth estimated at 11.9%. However, we expect that the disintegration of a number of large contracts could dampen growth in 2012, and forecast a slight slowdown to 8.2%. This trend illustrates our concerns over Iraq’s infrastructure sector, which stems primarily from a poor business environment and the government’s weak fiscal position:
- The country’s business environment continues to present fundamental weaknesses, with its institutions fundamentally flawed. The award of two sizeable electricity contracts to two sham companies cast doubt on the government’s ability to award contracts and carry out due diligence.
- The government’s ability to invest in infrastructure is weakened by the delay in oil and gas production. With much-needed revenue tied up, the government’s fiscal position is not looking very liquid and the private sector is unlikely to take on the burden as a result of weak regulations and a lack of government stability.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Iraq Infrastructure SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Trend Analysis - Building Materials: Asia And Latin America Demand Drive EM/Developed Market Divergence
Middle East Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Iraq Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: Iraq Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure
Transport Infrastructure Overview
Table: Operational Iraqi Ports
Major Projects Table – Transport
Table: Major Projects - Transport
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview
Major Projects Table – Energy And Utilities
Table: Major Projects – Energy And Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure Overview
Major Projects Table – Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
Table: Major Projects – Construction And Social infrastructure
Business Environment
Iraq Business Environment
Rewards
Risks
Regional Overview
GCC Outperforms As North Africa Fails To Make A Dent
Table: Middle East And North Africa Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
URUK Engineering
Global Overview
Infrastructure Finance In 2012: Déjà Vu?
Methodology
Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Data Methodology
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
Construction
Capital Investment
Construction Sector Employment
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators Skip to top