Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
This new Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.29% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 2.49% of supply.
CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is forecast to rise to 6.05mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.89mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001 and is expected to average 13.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to 15.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total is forecast to rise to 7.76mn b/d in 2010 and to 8.19mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region will consume an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Turkmenistan’s share of consumption in 2010 is estimated to be 3.35%, while its share of production is put at 8.25%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 4.09%, with the country accounting for 9.43% of supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y)). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.50/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
BMI forecasts Turkmen real GDP rising by 8.5% in 2010, followed by average annual growth of 10.1% from 2010-2015. Domestic consumption trends can be expected to return to a strong growth tack from 2010 onwards, estimated at an average of 5.0% per annum. By 2015, the country could be using 158,000b/d of oil. Turkmenistan has traditionally been protective of its onshore basins, allowing international oil companies (IOCs) to participate only in offshore developments. Offshore activity should help raise national crude and gas liquids output from an estimated 220,000b/d in 2010 to 375,000b/d by 2015. Gas production is expected to increase from an estimated 65bcm to 90bcm between 2010 and 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Turkmen oil and gas liquids production of 54.1%, with volumes peaking at 375,000b/d in 2015, before falling to 339,000b/d at the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption is set to increase by 62.9% between 2010 and 2020, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 201,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 65bcm to 140bcm by 2020, providing export potential increasing from an estimated 44bcm to 96bcm. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Turkmenistan now shares 11th place with Uzbekistan in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares eighth place with Croatia and Uzbekistan in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, gas reserves, and asset immaturity work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by an unappealing risk environment. Scope exists for Turkmenistan to break away from its immediate rivals and to move further up the table. Turkmenistan is in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, with few particularly high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely over the next few quarters. Oil and gas demand growth prospects represent strong suits, putting the country in 10th place, ahead of Uzbekistan, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Slovakia. Medium-term scope exists for Turkmenistan to challenge Hungary above it."
CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is forecast to rise to 6.05mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.89mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001 and is expected to average 13.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to 15.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total is forecast to rise to 7.76mn b/d in 2010 and to 8.19mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region will consume an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Turkmenistan’s share of consumption in 2010 is estimated to be 3.35%, while its share of production is put at 8.25%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 4.09%, with the country accounting for 9.43% of supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y)). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.50/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
BMI forecasts Turkmen real GDP rising by 8.5% in 2010, followed by average annual growth of 10.1% from 2010-2015. Domestic consumption trends can be expected to return to a strong growth tack from 2010 onwards, estimated at an average of 5.0% per annum. By 2015, the country could be using 158,000b/d of oil. Turkmenistan has traditionally been protective of its onshore basins, allowing international oil companies (IOCs) to participate only in offshore developments. Offshore activity should help raise national crude and gas liquids output from an estimated 220,000b/d in 2010 to 375,000b/d by 2015. Gas production is expected to increase from an estimated 65bcm to 90bcm between 2010 and 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Turkmen oil and gas liquids production of 54.1%, with volumes peaking at 375,000b/d in 2015, before falling to 339,000b/d at the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption is set to increase by 62.9% between 2010 and 2020, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 201,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 65bcm to 140bcm by 2020, providing export potential increasing from an estimated 44bcm to 96bcm. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Turkmenistan now shares 11th place with Uzbekistan in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares eighth place with Croatia and Uzbekistan in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, gas reserves, and asset immaturity work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by an unappealing risk environment. Scope exists for Turkmenistan to break away from its immediate rivals and to move further up the table. Turkmenistan is in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, with few particularly high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely over the next few quarters. Oil and gas demand growth prospects represent strong suits, putting the country in 10th place, ahead of Uzbekistan, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Slovakia. Medium-term scope exists for Turkmenistan to challenge Hungary above it."
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Turkmenistan Political SWOT
Turkmenistan Economic SWOT
Turkmenistan Business Environment SWOT
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
Regaining Momentum
Quarterly Trends
Global Oil Market Outlook
Sitting Comfortably
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Short-Term Supply Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Central/Eastern Europe Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Turkmenistan Upstream Rating – Overview
Turkmenistan Upstream Rating – Rewards
Turkmenistan Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Turkmenistan Downstream Rating – Overview
Turkmenistan Downstream Rating – Rewards
Turkmenistan Downstream Rating – Risks
Risk Summary
Political
Economic
Business Environment
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Turkmenistan Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Turkmenistan Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Turkmenistan Macroeconomic Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Downstream Player
Company Monitor
Eni
Dragon Oil
Petronas – Summary
China National Petroleum Corporation – Summary
Gazprom – Summary
Itera – Summary
RWE – Summary
Others – Summary
Service Companies
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm)
Turkmenistan Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross Checks
Sources 80 Skip to top