Thailand Petrochemicals Report Q4 2011
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
While Thai petrochemicals capacity has been expanded with an eye on export growth, domestic consumption will play an important role in the industry’s growth in 2011, according to BMI’s latest Thailand Petrochemicals Report. Private consumption is the main driver of growth in 2011, reaching a forecast 5.0% in 2011, unchanged from 2010. With low unemployment and growth in wages, there is a likelihood of strong growth from a broad range of domestic plastics consuming industries.
In H111 ethylene output was up 16.0% y-o-y while propylene was down 2.8%. In the polymers segment, PP grew 33.7%, but PE was down 16.7% and growth in PS and PVC was only 1.8% and 1.5% respectively. PP grew in line with rising PP capacity, but PVC and PE have moderated from the peaks seen in Q410. Annual industrial growth is set to fall from 6.0% in 2010 to 4.5% from 2011. As such, petrochemicals growth may face considerable headwinds in 2011 in the event that inventory restocking begins to turn negative.
A slew of plants are coming on stream in 2011 after a court order suspending 76 industrial projects at Map Ta Phut was lifted on all but two. Many of the projects are at least a year overdue, although BMI believes it may have been difficult to operate them at full capacity if they had opened in 2010 due to volatile market conditions and the effect of Gulf-based petrochemicals expansion on Asian petrochemicals prices.
Investment continues to increase in the Thai petrochemicals sector. In June 2011 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (MGC) began expanding polyacetal engineering plastic capacity at its Thai Polyacetal joint venture at Map Ta Phut. It is debottlenecking the existing 55,000tpa to 60,000tpa and is planning to build a 40,000tpa polyacetal facility, which will raise the total at the site to 100,000tpa. Both projects are expected on line in 2013. Meanwhile, IRPC announced plans to increase its ABS production by 50% to 180,000tpa to capitalise on growing demand for the product in electrical and electronic goods. Dow Chemical has also announced plans for a new petrochemicals plant in Map Ta Phut to more than triple its production capacity of speciality films used in photovoltaic modules for solar power installations. Construction will begin in 2012.
In BMI’s Asia Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings matrix, Thailand scores 67.2 points, up 0.1 point due to an improvement in the country’s long-term external risk rating. It is in sixth place, 5.7 points behind Taiwan and 3.6 points ahead of Malaysia.
While Thai petrochemicals capacity has been expanded with an eye on export growth, domestic consumption will play an important role in the industry’s growth in 2011, according to BMI’s latest Thailand Petrochemicals Report. Private consumption is the main driver of growth in 2011, reaching a forecast 5.0% in 2011, unchanged from 2010. With low unemployment and growth in wages, there is a likelihood of strong growth from a broad range of domestic plastics consuming industries.
In H111 ethylene output was up 16.0% y-o-y while propylene was down 2.8%. In the polymers segment, PP grew 33.7%, but PE was down 16.7% and growth in PS and PVC was only 1.8% and 1.5% respectively. PP grew in line with rising PP capacity, but PVC and PE have moderated from the peaks seen in Q410. Annual industrial growth is set to fall from 6.0% in 2010 to 4.5% from 2011. As such, petrochemicals growth may face considerable headwinds in 2011 in the event that inventory restocking begins to turn negative.
A slew of plants are coming on stream in 2011 after a court order suspending 76 industrial projects at Map Ta Phut was lifted on all but two. Many of the projects are at least a year overdue, although BMI believes it may have been difficult to operate them at full capacity if they had opened in 2010 due to volatile market conditions and the effect of Gulf-based petrochemicals expansion on Asian petrochemicals prices.
Investment continues to increase in the Thai petrochemicals sector. In June 2011 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (MGC) began expanding polyacetal engineering plastic capacity at its Thai Polyacetal joint venture at Map Ta Phut. It is debottlenecking the existing 55,000tpa to 60,000tpa and is planning to build a 40,000tpa polyacetal facility, which will raise the total at the site to 100,000tpa. Both projects are expected on line in 2013. Meanwhile, IRPC announced plans to increase its ABS production by 50% to 180,000tpa to capitalise on growing demand for the product in electrical and electronic goods. Dow Chemical has also announced plans for a new petrochemicals plant in Map Ta Phut to more than triple its production capacity of speciality films used in photovoltaic modules for solar power installations. Construction will begin in 2012.
In BMI’s Asia Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings matrix, Thailand scores 67.2 points, up 0.1 point due to an improvement in the country’s long-term external risk rating. It is in sixth place, 5.7 points behind Taiwan and 3.6 points ahead of Malaysia.
Contents
Executive SummarySWOT Analysis
Thailand Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
Thailand Political SWOT
Thailand Economic SWOT
Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2010 And 2015 (‘000 tonnes capacity)
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/BBL)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/BBL)
Emerging Asia Petrochemicals Overview
Thailand Market Overview
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Data, 2009-2015 (‘000tpa)
Market Evolution
Industry Trends and Developments
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemical Projects
Political Risk and the Petrochemicals Industry
Mergers and acquisitions
Latest Developments
Olefins
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Ethylene Capacity (tpa)
Aromatics
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Aromatics Capacity (tpa)
Polymers
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Polyethylene Capacity (tpa)
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Polypropylene Capacity (tpa)
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector – Polyvinyl Chloride Capacity (tpa)
Table: Thailand Petrochemicals Sector – Polystyrene Capacity
Financial Results
Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Petrochemicals Forecasts
Table: Thailand’s Petrochemicals Sector, 2008-2015 (‘000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Thailand - Economic Activity 2008-2015
Company Monitor
Indorama Polymers Public Company Limited (IRP PCL)
Integrated Refinery and Petrochemicals Company (IRPC)
PTT Aromatics and Refining (PTTAR)
PTT Chemical (PTTC)
PTT Public Company
Siam Cement/Cementhai Chemicals Company (CCC)
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Industry
Cross Checks
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators Skip to top